MLB Betting Analyzer — Full Audit

Thursday, July 16 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WRReview-only N
K Prop✅ TRUSTED40657%-2.73u5549%-8.38u18860%64
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED35759%+18.13u5662%+4.74u333%6
Run Line✅ TRUSTED13854%-3.08u0-+0.00u4163%1
Batter Walks👀 WATCH62772%-9.06u0-+0.00u580%134
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH32959%+2.48u8559%-0.39u1100%9
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH24059%-12.72u6159%-3.09u0-11
Batter Hits👀 WATCH3778%+3.90u0-+0.00u0-23
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH3155%+0.66u0-+0.00u0-37
F5 ML👀 WATCH2848%+4.54u0-+0.00u0-0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH922%-5.18u0-+0.00u0-0
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-0
NRFI👀 WATCH333%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
YRFI👀 WATCH2100%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH10346%-13.54u944%-1.52u250%8
Total🔬 RESEARCH5038%-10.52u0-+0.00u1100%7
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH10%-1.00u0-+0.00u0-6
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED48450%-56.69u0-+0.00u7053%355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted4/4No blocker
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted4/514d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research2/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

2 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Aaron NolaPhiladelphia Phillies vs New York Mets51.954.148.56Curveball (40% whiff, 34% usage)Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Christian ScottNew York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies48.354.143.56Sweeper (35% whiff, 23% usage)Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

2 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Christian ScottNew York Mets vs Philadelphia PhilliesR26.7%4.54.54.576shortfull43.5056.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start
Aaron NolaPhiladelphia Phillies vs New York MetsR24.9%5.25.15.187normalfull48.5051.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

4 candidates evaluated
← Back to Picks
GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffSignal Breakdown ✓!✗–Tier
► Lean Signals (Derisked)
B (Weak)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Books strongly against: blended market against 49.6% (1 books) — posture note at C
Pitcher Earned RChristian Scott UnderMET@PHI7:11 PM2.51.8-113DK Under 2.5 -113 | exact28.0%✓✓✗––✓Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropAaron Nola UnderMET@PHI7:11 PM5.55.1-155BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price7.4%✓✗!✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropChristian Scott OverMET@PHI7:11 PM5.55.6+102BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price2.2%✓✗✗✓––Lean Signal - Derisked
C (Review)↘ Lean Signal - Derisked
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RAaron Nola UnderMET@PHI7:11 PM2.52.5-120DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact-✓✗!––✓Lean Signal - Derisked

✓ Supports   ! Mixed   ✗ Opposes   – No Data  |  Layer order: Line Fit | Model Edge | Market Alignment | Matchup | Availability | Game Context