MLB Full Audit Sunday, July 12 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	400	57%	+1.66u	72	57%	-1.10u	184	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	350	59%	+18.18u	78	64%	+8.30u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	317	60%	+4.36u	114	60%	+2.01u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	230	58%	-14.06u	85	55%	-10.24u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	102	45%	-14.13u	11	45%	-1.60u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	70.2	66.8	79.0	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	68.0	60.3	78.0	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	65.7	68.0	68.0	5	Changeup (49% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	62.5	63.0	67.5	7	Sweeper (38% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	60.8	53.4	70.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 48% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	58.2	65.1	53.5	4	Slider (39% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	57.1	70.3	47.5	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 32.4%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	57.1	59.5	56.5	4	Cutter (41% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	56.3	60.1	54.5	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	56.1	62.8	51.0	5	Changeup (40% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	54.9	45.0	63.0	5	Cutter (28% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	54.1	57.2	53.0	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	54.0	66.6	43.0	5	Slider (52% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees	53.2	57.2	50.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	52.9	40.1	67.5	4	Slider (57% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 10.6%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	52.8	57.7	51.5	5	Slider (32% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	51.6	48.7	56.5	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	48.2	44.8	51.5	5	Slider (37% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	48.1	47.7	48.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	47.8	51.1	46.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	46.2	52.9	39.0	6	Curveball (48% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
JR Ritchie	Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	44.2	48.5	39.0	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	43.5	44.7	39.5	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals	42.8	42.2	43.5	5	Curveball (28% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	37.3	40.0	29.5	7	Changeup (32% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zach Thornton	New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox	35.6	44.2	29.5	5	Sweeper (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	34.7	36.5	30.0	8	Cutter (24% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays	33.6	34.5	27.0	5	Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	33.4	48.8	10.0	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.395, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Athletics	33.2	43.3	21.5	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.372, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	22.5%	-	3.0	5.5	92	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 3.0 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 10.4%, recent_form_unavailable
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	R	19.7%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
JR Ritchie	Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	22.6%	3.8	5.1	5.0	64	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals	R	19.2%	6.0	5.9	6.0	101	deep	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	L	24.1%	5.4	5.7	5.7	91	normal	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	L	22.7%	5.0	5.0	5.1	84	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Noah Schultz	Chicago White Sox vs Athletics	L	20.6%	4.5	4.8	4.7	76	short	full	21.50	78.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	L	20.5%	5.2	5.3	5.3	87	normal	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	L	25.2%	5.8	5.0	6.0	97	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	R	15.5%	5.1	4.8	4.8	86	short	full	29.50	70.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Tarik Skubal	Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	31.6%	5.3	5.9	6.0	89	normal	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	R	18.1%	2.3	3.1	4.4	39	short	full	10.00	90.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.3 IP/start
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	R	17.1%	4.8	5.6	5.4	80	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
José Soriano	Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	R	26.1%	4.8	5.6	5.4	80	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	26.2%	3.7	4.8	4.6	62	short	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	15.9%	5.0	4.9	5.1	84	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	22.5%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	29.5%	6.0	5.6	6.0	101	deep	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zach Thornton	New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox	L	23.1%	5.0	5.2	5.5	84	short	full	29.50	70.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	R	20.5%	4.7	5.2	5.1	79	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	R	32.2%	5.9	6.2	6.2	99	normal	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	29.2%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	78.00	22.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Germán Márquez	San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	17.1%	4.8	5.0	5.1	80	short	full	27.00	73.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Trevor McDonald	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	R	17.4%	3.9	4.9	4.7	65	short	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.4%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves	R	26.0%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	L	29.2%	5.1	4.5	5.1	86	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros	L	26.5%	6.0	5.3	6.0	101	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kevin Gausman	Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	R	24.2%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cade Cavalli	Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees	R	26.8%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	20.6	2.1	11.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.12 <= 3 min
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	18.7	1.1	6.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers	18.5	19.7	1.2	6.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Payton Tolle	Payton Tolle Under	Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets	17.5	16.5	-0.9	5.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Over	Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Under	Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	17.0	-0.5	2.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

26 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► GOOD ADDS
B	🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration	K Prop	Shane Baz Under	ROY@ORI	1:36 PM	5.5	4.3	-149	DK Under 5.5 -149 \| exact	21.3%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) \| books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…	K Prop	Tarik Skubal Over	PHI@TIG	1:41 PM	7.5	9.5	-113	FanDuel Over 7.5 -104 \| best price	27.2%	✓✓✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)	K Prop	Jose Soriano Over	ANG@TWI	2:11 PM	5.5	7.1	+105	DK Over 5.5 +105 \| exact	29.7%	✓✓✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	JT Ginn Over	ATH@SOX	2:11 PM	4.5	5.5	-125	DK Over 4.5 -125 \| exact	22.2%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) \| books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree	K Prop	Zack Wheeler Over	PHI@TIG	1:41 PM	7.5	9.1	+108	DK Over 7.5 +108 \| exact	21.6%	✓✓✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Cade Cavalli Over	YAN@NAT	1:36 PM	5.5	6.5	+106	FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 \| best price	17.4%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael Lorenzen Under	ROC@GIA	4:06 PM	3.5	3.0	+118	DK Under 3.5 +118 \| exact	14.9%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Seth Lugo Under	ROY@ORI	1:36 PM	4.5	3.9	+105	DK Under 4.5 +105 \| exact	13.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Ian Seymour Over	MAR@RAY	1:41 PM	5.5	6.2	-136	FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 \| best price	12.7%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Payton Tolle Under	SOX@MET	1:41 PM	5.5	4.9	+101	DK Under 5.5 +101 \| exact	11.5%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Trevor McDonald Under	ROC@GIA	4:06 PM	4.5	4.0	-121	DK Under 4.5 -121 \| exact	11.2%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Kevin Gausman Over	JAY@PAD	4:11 PM	5.5	6.0	+110	DK Over 5.5 +110 \| exact	9.9%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Paul Skenes Over	BRE@PIR	12:16 PM	6.5	7.0	-140	FanDuel Over 6.5 -128 \| best price	7.1%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Will Warren Under	YAN@NAT	1:36 PM	4.5	4.2	-121	DK Under 4.5 -121 \| exact	5.7%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Zach Thornton Under	SOX@MET	1:41 PM	4.5	4.3	-140	FanDuel Under 4.5 -128 \| best price	5.4%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan Over	DIA@DOD	4:11 PM	5.5	5.6	-120	FanDuel Over 5.5 +100 \| best price	2.4%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Noah Schultz Under	ATH@SOX	2:11 PM	4.5	4.4	-146	DK Under 4.5 -146 \| exact	1.5%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Taj Bradley Under	ANG@TWI	2:11 PM	6.5	6.5	-105	DK Under 6.5 -105 \| exact	0.8%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Emerson Hancock Under	MAR@RAY	1:41 PM	4.5	4.5	-132	FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 \| best price	0.4%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.12 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Zack Wheeler Over	PHI@TIG	1:41 PM	18.5	20.6	+122	DK Over 18.5 +122 \| exact	11.5%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Taj Bradley Over	ANG@TWI	2:11 PM	17.5	18.7	-170	DK Over 17.5 -170 \| exact	6.6%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Tarik Skubal Over	PHI@TIG	1:41 PM	18.5	19.7	+144	DK Over 18.5 +144 \| exact	6.3%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Payton Tolle Under	SOX@MET	1:41 PM	17.5	16.5	-137	DK Under 17.5 -137 \| exact	5.5%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Shane Baz Over	ROY@ORI	1:36 PM	17.5	18.3	-173	DK Over 17.5 -173 \| exact	4.7%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Paul Skenes Under	BRE@PIR	12:16 PM	17.5	17.0	+133	DK Under 17.5 +133 \| exact	2.6%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Kevin Gausman Under	JAY@PAD	4:11 PM	17.5	17.4	+112	DK Under 17.5 +112 \| exact	0.7%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script