| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 392 | 57% | +1.10u | 70 | 59% | +0.71u | 179 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 346 | 59% | +16.88u | 82 | 66% | +10.93u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 312 | 59% | +2.74u | 113 | 59% | +1.21u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 225 | 58% | -15.48u | 84 | 55% | -10.74u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 101 | 45% | -15.02u | 13 | 38% | -3.77u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | 66.9 | 71.6 | 68.0 | 3 | Changeup (45% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 25.5%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | 65.8 | 62.4 | 74.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 45% usage) | Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies | 65.4 | 64.0 | 72.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (34% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | 64.8 | 61.9 | 70.0 | 3 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | 61.0 | 56.1 | 70.5 | 6 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 59.6 | 60.8 | 65.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | 58.9 | 63.7 | 59.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (38% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.7 | 57.5 | 62.0 | 6 | Slider (38% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | 56.1 | 52.2 | 61.0 | 7 | Changeup (38% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Hudson | Chicago White Sox vs Athletics | 55.8 | 52.0 | 60.5 | 4 | Sweeper (26% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox | 55.4 | 53.9 | 57.0 | 5 | Curveball (36% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians | 54.7 | 62.3 | 49.5 | 6 | Slider (41% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals | 53.4 | 53.5 | 54.5 | 4 | Curveball (43% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | 53.3 | 73.7 | 34.5 | 6 | Sweeper (43% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 32.2%, put-away 25.6%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | 49.7 | 48.8 | 50.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (27% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | 48.9 | 47.6 | 51.5 | 6 | Slider (27% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 47.9 | 50.4 | 45.0 | 7 | Curveball (37% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | 47.3 | 44.8 | 41.0 | 4 | Split-Finger (36% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | 47.0 | 51.4 | 42.5 | 5 | Slider (40% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | 46.5 | 44.7 | 47.5 | 6 | Slider (31% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Reynaldo López | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | 45.0 | 48.1 | 44.0 | 4 | Slider (31% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | 44.5 | 51.3 | 39.5 | 6 | Cutter (34% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays | 43.2 | 42.6 | 44.5 | 7 | Curveball (30% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | 43.1 | 47.8 | 37.5 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | 39.2 | 45.3 | 29.0 | 7 | Curveball (37% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | 36.9 | 45.9 | 25.0 | 6 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | 33.9 | 26.9 | 37.0 | 6 | Curveball (19% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 15.3%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | 33.1 | 40.4 | 20.5 | 4 | Curveball (37% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.374, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Javier Assad | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | 32.8 | 22.6 | 41.5 | 7 | Cutter (15% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 13.4%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 19.9% | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 45 | short | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | L | 23.7% | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 80 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Reynaldo López | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 22.3% | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 60 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.6 IP/start |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals | R | 24.4% | 6.1 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 102 | deep | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Javier Assad | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 16.2% | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 76 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Bryan Hudson | Chicago White Sox vs Athletics | L | 27.9% | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 18 | short | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.1 IP/start |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | L | 19.1% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 20.50 | 79.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.0% |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | R | 19.2% | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 97 | normal | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | L | 19.0% | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 96 | normal | full | 25.00 | 75.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 25.8% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | R | 22.6% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 18.9% | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 76 | short | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | R | 20.7% | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 74 | short | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 24.8% | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 117 | deep | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 29.5% | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 89 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 22.2% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 30.2% | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 94 | normal | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox | R | 20.5% | 4.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 69 | short | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | R | 31.0% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 74.00 | 26.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | L | 24.9% | 5.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 89 | normal | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 17.7% | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 89 | normal | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 22.6% | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 80 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | R | 21.8% | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 79 | short | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 28.4% | 6.6 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 111 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | L | 20.9% | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 69 | short | full | 29.00 | 71.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | R | 27.2% | 5.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 87 | normal | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | R | 22.0% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 76 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | R | 21.5% | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 99 | normal | full | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | R | 11.9% | 5.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 97 | normal | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | Freddy Peralta Under | Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 14.2 | -3.3 | 19.1% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.0 | 69 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 20.2 | 2.7 | 15.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.1 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.72 <= 3 min |
| Kyle Freeland | Kyle Freeland Under | Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 15.3 | -2.1 | 12.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.2 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min |
| Tanner Bibee | Tanner Bibee Under | Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 16.4 | -1.1 | 6.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Logan Gilbert | Logan Gilbert Over | Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | 18.5 | 19.6 | 1.1 | 6.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Peter Lambert | Peter Lambert Under | Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Trey Yesavage | Trey Yesavage Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.5 | 2.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Kyle Bradish | Kyle Bradish Over | Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.4 | 2.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Casey Mize | Casey Mize Under | Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Peter Lambert Over | AST@RAN | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -112 | DK Over 4.5 -112 | exact | 23.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -133, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.070/AVG 0.366 over 50 PA, expected… | K Prop | Griffin Jax Over | MAR@RAY | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -133 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 18.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@TIG | 6:11 PM | 7.5 | 8.9 | +120 | BetOnline Over 6.5 -135 | alt rescue | 18.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Good Add Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.92) ✗… | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Over | YAN@NAT | 4:05 PM | 5.5 | 7.0 | -142 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price | 27.2% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | K Prop | Nick Lodolo Under | CUB@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -158 | DK Under 5.5 -158 | exact | 22.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Noah Cameron Under | ROY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -149 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -146 | best price | 19.5% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Freddy Peralta Under | SOX@MET | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.2 | -112 | DK Under 17.5 -112 | exact | 19.1% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Peter Lambert Under | AST@RAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 3.8 | -145 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 30.9% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Bibee Under | GUA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -149 | DK Under 5.5 -149 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Johnson Under | ANG@TWI | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -106 | DK Under 5.5 -106 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Joe Ryan Under | ANG@TWI | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -233 | DK Under 1.5 -233 | exact | 27.5% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Freeland Over | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 3.5 | -158 | DK Over 2.5 -158 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Eury Perez Over | GUA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -133 | DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Jax Over | MAR@RAY | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -141 | DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Casey Mize Over | PHI@TIG | 6:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.7 | +100 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 21.8% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Mahle Under | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -143 | DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact | 16.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eury Perez Over | GUA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.4 | -103 | DK Over 6.5 -103 | exact | 13.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Javier Assad Under | CUB@RED | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | +119 | DK Under 3.5 +119 | exact | 13.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Johnson Over | ANG@TWI | 2:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -164 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | best price | 13.3% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trey Yesavage Over | JAY@PAD | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +122 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -174 | alt rescue | 10.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kumar Rocker Over | AST@RAN | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | +106 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +110 | best price | 10.7% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Reynaldo Lopez Over | BRA@CAR | 7:15 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -125 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -102 | best price | 8.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Bibee Under | GUA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | +107 | DK Under 4.5 +107 | exact | 7.9% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Bradish Over | ROY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +115 | DK Over 5.5 +115 | exact | 6.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Freeland Under | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -140 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gage Jump Under | ATH@SOX | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -121 | DK Under 5.5 -121 | exact | 2.4% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Liberatore Under | BRA@CAR | 7:15 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | +102 | DK Under 4.5 +102 | exact | 2.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Freddy Peralta Under | SOX@MET | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | +106 | DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact | 2.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Pfaadt Under | DIA@DOD | 9:10 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -125 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -120 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Gilbert Over | MAR@RAY | 4:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | +119 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +134 | best price | 0.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.72 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@TIG | 6:11 PM | 17.5 | 20.2 | -181 | DK Over 17.5 -181 | exact | 15.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kyle Freeland Under | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 17.5 | 15.3 | -125 | DK Under 17.5 -125 | exact | 12.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tanner Bibee Under | GUA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.4 | +102 | DK Under 17.5 +102 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Gilbert Over | MAR@RAY | 4:11 PM | 18.5 | 19.6 | +125 | DK Over 18.5 +125 | exact | 6.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Peter Lambert Under | AST@RAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | -135 | DK Under 17.5 -135 | exact | 5.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Trey Yesavage Under | JAY@PAD | 8:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.0 | -108 | DK Under 17.5 -108 | exact | 2.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kyle Bradish Over | ROY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.9 | -147 | DK Over 17.5 -147 | exact | 2.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Casey Mize Under | PHI@TIG | 6:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | -118 | DK Under 17.5 -118 | exact | 1.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Freeland Over | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 6.5 | 7.4 | +103 | BetMGM Over 6.5 +110 | best price | 13.9% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Gage Jump Under | ATH@SOX | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -161 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -160 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Griffin Jax Over | MAR@RAY | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +106 | DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact | 14.9% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Logan Gilbert Under | MAR@RAY | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -138 | DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact | 11.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Johnson Over | ANG@TWI | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -112 | DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact | 5.9% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Casey Mize Over | PHI@TIG | 6:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -152 | DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Gilbert Under | MAR@RAY | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -162 | DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@TIG | 6:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -123 | DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Kumar Rocker Under | AST@RAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -147 | DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Gage Jump Under | ATH@SOX | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -136 | DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Bibee Over | GUA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +107 | DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Peter Lambert Under | AST@RAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -119 | DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trey Yesavage Under | JAY@PAD | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -157 | DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Joe Ryan Over | ANG@TWI | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -159 | DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Mahle Over | ROC@GIA | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +122 | DK Over 2.5 +122 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Walker Buehler Under | JAY@PAD | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -146 | DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Johnson Under | ANG@TWI | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +107 | DK Under 2.5 +107 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Miles Mikolas Under | YAN@NAT | 4:05 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -116 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -113 | best price | 15.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | DIA@DOD | 9:10 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | +127 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -148 | alt rescue | 5.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Joe Ryan Over | ANG@TWI | 2:11 PM | 7.5 | 7.8 | -122 | DK Over 7.5 -122 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Over | JAY@PAD | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -143 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -132 | best price | 2.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script