| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 388 | 57% | +1.71u | 71 | 62% | +5.30u | 179 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 342 | 59% | +15.63u | 80 | 65% | +9.39u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 304 | 59% | +0.75u | 110 | 58% | -0.81u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 217 | 58% | -15.96u | 76 | 54% | -11.22u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 100 | 45% | -14.02u | 12 | 42% | -2.77u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 72.4 | 72.5 | 79.0 | 7 | Curveball (39% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 26.3%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | 64.0 | 63.6 | 68.5 | 5 | Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 25.4%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | 61.1 | 63.0 | 63.0 | 4 | Slider (38% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | 59.1 | 54.6 | 67.5 | 6 | Changeup (37% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | 59.0 | 62.0 | 58.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | 58.7 | 55.5 | 63.5 | 5 | Curveball (27% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox | 57.4 | 56.8 | 63.5 | 7 | Curveball (40% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Athletics | 53.8 | 51.9 | 57.5 | 6 | Slider (33% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Carson Palmquist | Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | 52.3 | 42.3 | 58.5 | 4 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | 51.9 | 63.2 | 42.0 | 5 | Sweeper (45% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Flaherty | Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies | 51.3 | 55.1 | 47.0 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | 51.3 | 47.7 | 58.0 | 6 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | 50.9 | 52.5 | 48.0 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians | 50.4 | 44.0 | 56.5 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.1 | 52.9 | 41.0 | 6 | Curveball (35% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | 47.0 | 36.4 | 51.5 | 5 | Cutter (24% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | 47.0 | 48.9 | 44.0 | 5 | Changeup (35% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals | 46.2 | 47.3 | 46.5 | 5 | Slider (41% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | 46.2 | 51.4 | 43.0 | 5 | Slider (35% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | 45.9 | 48.6 | 44.0 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | 45.6 | 49.6 | 38.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Luis Castillo | Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | 45.5 | 46.1 | 43.0 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays | 39.3 | 54.2 | 23.5 | 6 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.368, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | 38.2 | 37.5 | 38.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 12.7%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | 37.2 | 35.3 | 41.0 | 6 | Changeup (35% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | 37.0 | 46.0 | 28.0 | 6 | Changeup (40% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 36.3 | 39.0 | 36.0 | 5 | Changeup (22% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | 32.3 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 3 | Slider (58% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.458, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | 27.8 | 42.8 | 7.5 | 4 | Slider (33% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.400, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Bieber | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | 19.8 | 40.9 | 0.0 | 5 | Curveball (36% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 11.7%, xwOBA 0.502, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 16.2% | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 96 | normal | full | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Jacob Lopez | Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | L | 17.4% | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 59 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 27.4% | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 89 | normal | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals | R | 19.3% | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 94 | normal | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | R | 25.4% | 6.6 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 111 | deep | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 24.2% | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 86 | short | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Athletics | R | 28.1% | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 96 | normal | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs | R | 23.0% | - | 3.3 | 5.5 | 92 | short | full | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | season leash 3.3 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 11.1%, recent_form_unavailable |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | L | 25.2% | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | R | 20.9% | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Jack Flaherty | Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 27.1% | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 77 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | R | 24.3% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 80 | short | full | 63.50 | 36.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 21.8% | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 80 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Grayson Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | R | 20.9% | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 69 | short | full | 7.50 | 92.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 27.5% | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 101 | deep | full | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 18.4% | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 112 | deep | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 27.2% | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 82 | short | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 20.5% | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 101 | deep | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox | R | 28.4% | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 63.50 | 36.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | L | 26.2% | 4.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 72 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | R | 22.8% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 28.8% | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 21.7% | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 80 | short | full | 23.50 | 76.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | L | 19.5% | 6.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 112 | deep | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Luis Castillo | Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 20.1% | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 89 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.0% |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | R | 20.9% | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 91 | normal | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | R | 15.4% | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 96 | normal | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | R | 17.9% | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 50 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.0 IP/start |
| Shane Bieber | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | R | 18.7% | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 69 | short | full | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Carson Palmquist | Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | L | 23.5% | 1.5 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 25 | short | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | Hunter Brown Under | Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 13.8 | -3.7 | 21.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.2 | 80 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books) |
| Luis Castillo | Luis Castillo Under | Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 14.6 | -2.9 | 16.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.1 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.94 <= 3 min |
| Ryan Weathers | Ryan Weathers Under | New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 15.6 | -1.9 | 10.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.2 | 72 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.87 <= 3 min |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Over | Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 9.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Shohei Ohtani Over | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 18.5 | 20.2 | 1.7 | 9.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | 18.5 | 20.1 | 1.6 | 8.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 112 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Brandon Young | Brandon Young Under | Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | 8.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shota Imanaga | Shota Imanaga Under | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | 17.5 | 16.1 | -1.4 | 8.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.6 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Parker Messick | Parker Messick Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 18.4 | 0.9 | 5.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 18.3 | 0.8 | 4.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Nick Martinez | Nick Martinez Under | Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.5 | 2.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Robbie Ray | Robbie Ray Under | Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 112 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Hunter Greene Under | CUB@RED | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 3.6 | -115 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -110 | best price | 43.9% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Cal Quantrill Under | AST@RAN | 8:06 PM | 3.5 | 2.2 | -176 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -174 | best price | 37.1% | ✓✓!!–! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 132 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Over | CUB@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.8 | -109 | DK Over 5.5 -109 | exact | 24.5% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Shane Bieber Under | JAY@PAD | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.4 | -121 | DK Under 4.5 -121 | exact | 24.5% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Robbie Ray Under | ROC@GIA | 10:16 PM | 5.5 | 3.8 | -130 | DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact | 30.9% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Shota Imanaga Under | CUB@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -159 | DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Gordon Over | ROC@GIA | 10:16 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -121 | DK Over 5.5 -121 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | JP Sears Over | JAY@PAD | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.7 | -163 | DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact | 80.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.6 | -146 | DK Under 3.5 -146 | exact | 25.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Jack Flaherty Under | PHI@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -148 | DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Cal Quantrill Under | AST@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -145 | DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!!–! | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Grayson Rodriguez Under | ANG@TWI | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.7 | -109 | FanDuel Under 4.5 +102 | best price | 17.5% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robbie Ray Over | ROC@GIA | 10:16 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | -102 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 16.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Gordon Under | ROC@GIA | 10:16 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | -164 | DK Under 4.5 -164 | exact | 16.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Luis Castillo Under | MAR@RAY | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | -116 | DK Under 4.5 -116 | exact | 15.9% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shohei Ohtani Over | DIA@DOD | 10:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.5 | +113 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +118 | best price | 14.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Young Over | ROY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -106 | BetRivers Over 4.5 +100 | best price | 13.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Martinez Under | MAR@RAY | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -140 | DK Under 4.5 -140 | exact | 12.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | BRE@PIR | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | +111 | BetOnline Over 6.5 +117 | best price | 12.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zebby Matthews Over | ANG@TWI | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -105 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +102 | best price | 11.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Weathers Over | YAN@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +119 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +128 | best price | 11.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@DOD | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -149 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -101 | DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact | 9.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Hunter Brown Under | AST@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | +122 | DK Under 5.5 +122 | exact | 7.8% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sandy Alcantara Over | GUA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -113 | BetOnline Over 5.5 -103 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Sproat Under | BRE@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -152 | DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact | 5.8% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Luinder Avila Under | ROY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -151 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -148 | best price | 4.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Chris Sale Under | BRA@CAR | 8:16 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | -163 | BetOnline Under 6.5 -156 | best price | 1.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Outs | Hunter Brown Under | AST@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 13.8 | +112 | DK Under 17.5 +112 | exact | 21.0% | ✓✓✗!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.94 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Luis Castillo Under | MAR@RAY | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.6 | -124 | DK Under 17.5 -124 | exact | 16.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.87 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ryan Weathers Under | YAN@NAT | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 15.6 | -134 | DK Under 17.5 -134 | exact | 10.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Over | SOX@MET | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 19.1 | -143 | DK Over 17.5 -143 | exact | 9.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shohei Ohtani Over | DIA@DOD | 10:11 PM | 18.5 | 20.2 | +133 | DK Over 18.5 +133 | exact | 9.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sandy Alcantara Over | GUA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 18.5 | 20.1 | -104 | DK Over 18.5 -104 | exact | 8.5% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Brandon Young Under | ROY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 16.0 | +115 | DK Under 17.5 +115 | exact | 8.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shota Imanaga Under | CUB@RED | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.1 | -116 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -110 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@DOD | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | -138 | DK Under 17.5 -138 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Parker Messick Over | GUA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.4 | -121 | DK Over 17.5 -121 | exact | 5.1% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Over | SOX@MET | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 18.3 | -167 | DK Over 17.5 -167 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nick Martinez Under | MAR@RAY | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.0 | -128 | DK Under 17.5 -128 | exact | 2.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Robbie Ray Under | ROC@GIA | 10:16 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | +122 | DK Under 17.5 +122 | exact | 1.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Parker Messick Under | GUA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -153 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -105 | BetMGM Under 5.5 +115 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sandy Alcantara Over | GUA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -112 | DK Over 5.5 -112 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Luis Castillo Under | MAR@RAY | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -130 | DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Martinez Under | MAR@RAY | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -144 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -130 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Bieber Over | JAY@PAD | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +117 | DK Over 5.5 +117 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Weathers Under | YAN@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -134 | DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brandon Young Under | ROY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -110 | DK Under 5.5 -110 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -113 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Zebby Matthews Under | ANG@TWI | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -112 | DK Under 5.5 -112 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Bieber Over | JAY@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | +107 | DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Hunter Greene Over | CUB@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -119 | DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Shota Imanaga Under | CUB@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -106 | DK Under 2.5 -106 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Parker Messick Under | GUA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -170 | DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Burke Under | ATH@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Hunter Brown Under | AST@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -156 | DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Zebby Matthews Over | ANG@TWI | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -108 | DK Over 2.5 -108 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Shohei Ohtani Over | DIA@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -134 | DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Weathers Under | YAN@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -110 | DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Luinder Avila Under | ROY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -105 | DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Gordon Over | ROC@GIA | 10:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -125 | DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Sandy Alcantara Over | GUA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -106 | DK Over 2.5 -106 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Robbie Ray Over | ROC@GIA | 10:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +105 | DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -128 | DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Martinez Over | MAR@RAY | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +104 | DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Luis Castillo Over | MAR@RAY | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -109 | DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Grayson Rodriguez Over | ANG@TWI | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -111 | DK Over 2.5 -111 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Young Under | ROY@ORI | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +101 | DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Leahy Over | BRA@CAR | 8:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -158 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price | 24.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | JP Sears Over | JAY@PAD | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -138 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -120 | best price | 15.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Parker Messick Over | GUA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -106 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -175 | alt rescue | 9.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Burke Over | ATH@SOX | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -152 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | best price | 7.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Flaherty Over | PHI@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -136 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | best price | 7.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Over | SOX@MET | 7:16 PM | 6.5 | 7.0 | -121 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -115 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sonny Gray Over | SOX@MET | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -135 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price | 0.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script