| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 383 | 58% | +5.04u | 70 | 64% | +7.96u | 177 | 61% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 339 | 60% | +18.63u | 79 | 67% | +12.02u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 298 | 59% | +1.57u | 116 | 59% | +1.37u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 214 | 58% | -14.62u | 80 | 57% | -7.28u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 100 | 45% | -14.02u | 14 | 50% | -1.28u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins | 74.9 | 63.4 | 94.5 | 7 | Split-Finger (33% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.226, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | 70.0 | 71.9 | 71.0 | 4 | Sweeper (50% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 32.5%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | 67.8 | 66.9 | 72.5 | 4 | Changeup (34% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 25.9%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | 63.1 | 61.7 | 68.0 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | 59.1 | 69.0 | 52.0 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | 58.7 | 52.9 | 68.5 | 6 | Changeup (40% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | 55.5 | 60.9 | 51.0 | 6 | Changeup (48% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 53.0 | 65.5 | 43.0 | 5 | Sweeper (43% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.7 | 48.4 | 59.5 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Paul Blackburn | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | 51.1 | 46.0 | 61.5 | 7 | Curveball (44% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | 49.7 | 40.3 | 58.0 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets | 48.6 | 46.4 | 51.0 | 6 | Changeup (30% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals | 48.1 | 44.3 | 50.0 | 5 | Sweeper (30% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Canning | San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.9 | 52.3 | 39.0 | 7 | Slider (39% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs | 46.2 | 42.2 | 50.0 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners | 44.8 | 34.6 | 52.5 | 6 | Changeup (33% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | 43.2 | 38.6 | 46.0 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | 43.1 | 40.0 | 45.5 | 5 | Curveball (30% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | 42.8 | 50.2 | 37.5 | 6 | Changeup (53% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | 41.8 | 46.3 | 34.0 | 5 | Curveball (35% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | 40.7 | 49.8 | 28.0 | 5 | Sweeper (42% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | 39.4 | 43.9 | 32.5 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | 36.5 | 41.0 | 30.5 | 7 | Sweeper (23% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 22.5 | 37.9 | 1.5 | 6 | Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.412, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | R | 13.3% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 94 | normal | full | 1.50 | 98.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | R | 27.2% | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 74 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 19.3% | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 87 | normal | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs | L | 18.9% | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 99 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| Patrick Sandoval | Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 16.7% | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 62 | short | full | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | L | 18.6% | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 74 | short | full | 32.50 | 67.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 21.1% | 5.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 91 | normal | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | R | 27.7% | 4.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 80 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | R | 18.9% | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 89 | normal | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | L | 16.7% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets | R | 18.9% | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 111 | deep | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | L | 25.9% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Janson Junk | Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners | R | 18.2% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 28.3% | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 77 | short | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Bailey Ober | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 16.1% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals | L | 21.8% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Paul Blackburn | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 21.4% | 1.3 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 22 | short | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 31.2% | 5.9 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | R | 16.6% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 30.50 | 69.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Griffin Canning | San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 21.9% | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 74 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins | R | 32.8% | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 94.50 | 5.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 16.8% | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 102 | deep | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | R | 25.9% | 6.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 26.7% | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 101 | deep | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | Nathan Eovaldi Over | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | 18.5 | 20.8 | 2.2 | 12.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.25 <= 3 min |
| Merrill Kelly | Merrill Kelly Under | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 15.8 | -1.7 | 9.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Bryce Miller | Bryce Miller Over | Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 9.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Reid Detmers | Reid Detmers Over | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 9.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Drew Rasmussen | Drew Rasmussen Over | New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.6 | 8.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Jesus Luzardo | Jesus Luzardo Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 8.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Andre Pallante | Andre Pallante Under | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 2.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.7 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Gavin Williams | Gavin Williams Under | Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | 0.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 6.0 | 80 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Over | Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 19.9 | 2.5 | 14.0% | B | MONITOR | research | deep | 6.4 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.45 <= 3 min |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -148, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Logan Henderson Over | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 4.5 | 5.6 | -148 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 25.0% | ✓✓✓✓–✓ | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -139 | K Prop | Bryce Miller Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -139 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price | 19.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play A-tier prop gate: 50% consensus; needs diff_pct >= 18.8% and raw gap >= 0.50 for Grade A (got 18.2%, 1.00) | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Feltner Under | ROC@GIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -126 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓✓––✓ | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Brady Singer Over | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -151 | DK Over 4.5 -151 | exact | 25.8% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Heavy juice (-173); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | K Prop | Bailey Ober Under | GUA@TWI | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.5 | -173 | DK Under 4.5 -173 | exact | 22.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Framber Valdez Under | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -149 | BetRivers Under 5.5 -143 | best price | 19.2% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Reid Detmers Under | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -159 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -139 | DK Over 5.5 -139 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -151 | DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact | 42.1% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@TWI | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -160 | DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact | 25.1% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Reid Detmers Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -150 | DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact | 24.6% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Janson Junk Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.8 | -162 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price | 86.7% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.8 | -147 | DK Over 2.5 -147 | exact | 52.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Nathan Eovaldi Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -141 | DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jesus Luzardo Under | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -134 | DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-178); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Drew Rasmussen Under | YAN@RAY | 1:10 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -178 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 7.5 | 10.0 | -112 | BetMGM Over 7.5 +105 | best price | 32.9% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@TWI | 1:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.9 | +120 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -175 | alt rescue | 21.1% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Janson Junk Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.1 | -130 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -122 | best price | 16.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | David Peterson Under | CUB@ORI | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | -164 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 15.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Reid Detmers Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | +114 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -155 | alt rescue | 11.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Griffin Canning Under | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -169 | DK Under 4.5 -169 | exact | 10.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Anthony Kay Under | SOX@SOX | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -137 | BetRivers Under 4.5 -134 | best price | 8.1% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Wacha Under | ROY@MET | 1:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -103 | Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +115 | best price | 5.4% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Carson Whisenhunt Under | ROC@GIA | 9:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -105 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -104 | best price | 4.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor Rogers Under | CUB@ORI | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -118 | DK Under 4.5 -118 | exact | 0.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Drew Rasmussen Under | YAN@RAY | 1:10 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | -151 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -145 | best price | 0.1% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.25 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nathan Eovaldi Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 18.5 | 20.8 | +114 | BetOnline Over 18.5 +125 | best price | 12.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Merrill Kelly Under | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 15.8 | +102 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 9.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryce Miller Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 19.2 | -141 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -140 | best price | 9.8% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Reid Detmers Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 19.1 | -165 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 | best price | 9.3% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Drew Rasmussen Over | YAN@RAY | 1:10 PM | 17.5 | 19.0 | -181 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -145 | best price | 8.8% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.0 | -150 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price | 8.4% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Andre Pallante Under | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | -130 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -125 | best price | 2.0% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gavin Williams Under | GUA@TWI | 1:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.4 | +101 | BetOnline Under 17.5 +120 | best price | 0.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Gavin Williams Under | GUA@TWI | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -130 | DK Under 5.5 -130 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brady Singer Under | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -113 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Drew Rasmussen Under | YAN@RAY | 1:10 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -156 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -155 | best price | 18.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Griffin Canning Under | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 15.2% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Janson Junk Under | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -214 | DK Under 1.5 -214 | exact | 13.1% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Bryce Miller Under | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -233 | DK Under 1.5 -233 | exact | 12.8% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jesus Luzardo Under | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -202 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -200 | best price | 10.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Brady Singer Over | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -114 | DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact | 10.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Nathan Eovaldi Under | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -188 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price | 9.6% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Bailey Ober Over | GUA@TWI | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +158 | DK Over 1.5 +158 | exact | 4.3% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Bailey Ober Over | GUA@TWI | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | +108 | DK Over 2.5 +108 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Miller Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -176 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 13.3% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Reid Detmers Under | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -153 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Gavin Williams Under | GUA@TWI | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -120 | DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brady Singer Over | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -143 | DK Over 2.5 -143 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Canning Under | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -144 | DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Feltner Under | ROC@GIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -110 | DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact | - | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Feltner Over | ROC@GIA | 9:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -161 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 | best price | 24.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andre Pallante Over | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -148 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price | 14.8% | ✓✗✓!–✓ | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nathan Eovaldi Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 7.5 | 8.6 | +118 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -160 | alt rescue | 14.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Manaea Over | ROY@MET | 1:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -163 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | best price | 13.2% | ✓✗✓✓–✓ | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -169 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -160 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.45 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@MET | 1:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.9 | -140 | BetOnline Over 17.5 -135 | best price | 14.0% | ✓✗✓✓–✓ | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script