MLB Full Audit Thursday, July 09 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	383	58%	+5.04u	70	64%	+7.96u	177	61%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	339	60%	+18.63u	79	67%	+12.02u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	298	59%	+1.57u	116	59%	+1.37u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	214	58%	-14.62u	80	57%	-7.28u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	100	45%	-14.02u	14	50%	-1.28u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

24 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	74.9	63.4	94.5	7	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.226, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	69.9	71.9	71.0	4	Sweeper (50% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 32.5%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	67.8	66.9	72.5	4	Changeup (34% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 25.9%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	63.1	61.7	68.0	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	59.1	69.0	52.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	58.7	52.9	68.5	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	55.5	60.9	51.0	6	Changeup (48% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	53.0	65.5	43.0	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	52.7	48.4	59.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	49.7	40.3	58.0	5	Slider (30% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	48.8	46.4	51.5	6	Changeup (30% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals	48.1	44.3	50.0	5	Sweeper (30% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Canning	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	47.6	54.7	39.0	7	Slider (38% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	46.2	42.2	50.0	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners	44.8	34.6	52.5	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	43.2	38.6	46.0	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	43.1	40.0	45.5	5	Curveball (30% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	42.8	50.2	37.5	6	Changeup (53% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	41.8	46.3	34.0	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies	40.7	49.8	28.0	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	39.4	43.9	32.5	6	Sweeper (34% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves	36.5	41.0	30.5	7	Sweeper (23% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	22.5	37.9	1.5	6	Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.412, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

24 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	R	13.3%	5.6	5.8	5.7	94	normal	full	1.50	98.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	R	27.2%	4.4	4.4	4.8	74	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	19.3%	5.2	5.8	5.7	87	normal	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	L	18.9%	5.9	5.3	5.4	99	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	L	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	L	16.7%	3.7	4.7	4.5	62	short	full	34.00	66.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox	L	18.6%	4.4	4.8	4.7	74	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	21.1%	5.4	4.8	5.0	91	normal	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	R	27.7%	4.8	5.9	6.0	80	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	R	18.9%	5.3	4.9	5.0	89	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Athletics	L	16.7%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	R	18.9%	6.6	6.4	6.4	111	deep	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	L	25.9%	6.0	5.8	6.0	101	deep	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners	R	18.2%	5.3	5.5	5.4	89	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	28.3%	4.6	4.6	5.1	77	short	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	R	16.1%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals	L	21.8%	4.9	5.0	5.3	82	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	L	31.2%	5.9	5.7	6.0	99	normal	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves	R	16.6%	5.4	5.6	5.5	91	normal	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Griffin Canning	San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.9%	4.4	4.7	4.7	74	short	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	R	32.8%	6.2	6.0	6.0	104	deep	full	94.50	5.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	16.8%	6.1	5.6	5.7	102	deep	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees	R	25.9%	6.2	5.7	6.0	104	deep	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	R	26.7%	6.0	6.2	6.2	101	deep	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets	17.5	19.9	2.5	14.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.4	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.45 <= 3 min
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	18.5	20.8	2.2	12.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.25 <= 3 min
Merrill Kelly	Merrill Kelly Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres	17.5	15.8	-1.7	9.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryce Miller	Bryce Miller Over	Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins	17.5	19.2	1.7	9.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	19.0	1.6	8.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Andre Pallante	Andre Pallante Under	Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	6.0	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.3%	B	MONITOR	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

52 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► BEST PLAYS
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Logan Henderson Over	BRE@CAR	7:46 PM	4.5	5.6	-118	FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 \| best price	24.5%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
► GOOD ADDS
B	🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration	K Prop	Framber Valdez Under	ATH@TIG	6:41 PM	5.5	4.4	-132	DK Under 5.5 -132 \| exact	19.2%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Pitcher Hits All	Reid Detmers Under	ANG@RAN	8:06 PM	5.5	4.0	-160	BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 \| best price	27.3%	✓✓!!–!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Hits All	Merrill Kelly Over	DIA@PAD	9:41 PM	5.5	6.6	-152	BetMGM Over 5.5 -118 \| best price	20.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Ryan Feltner Under	ROC@GIA	9:46 PM	5.5	4.4	-122	DK Under 5.5 -122 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!––✓	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Walks	Gavin Williams Over	GUA@TWI	1:41 PM	1.5	1.9	-160	DK Over 1.5 -160 \| exact	27.7%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Janson Junk Over	MAR@MAR	6:41 PM	1.5	2.8	-157	DK Over 1.5 -157 \| exact	86.7%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Merrill Kelly Over	DIA@PAD	9:41 PM	2.5	3.8	-159	DK Over 2.5 -159 \| exact	52.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.06x)	Pitcher Earned R	Jesus Luzardo Under	PHI@RED	7:11 PM	2.5	1.7	-134	DK Under 2.5 -134 \| exact	32.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Drew Rasmussen Under	YAN@RAY	1:10 PM	2.5	1.8	-156	DK Under 2.5 -156 \| exact	28.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.06x)	Pitcher Earned R	Brady Singer Under	PHI@RED	7:11 PM	3.5	2.7	-137	DK Under 3.5 -137 \| exact	22.9%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
► SMALL PLAYS
A (Weak)	◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B	Pitcher Earned R	Nathan Eovaldi Over	ANG@RAN	8:06 PM	1.5	2.2	-135	DK Over 1.5 -135 \| exact	46.7%	✓✓!✓–✓	SMALL PLAY
► ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (6 books) \| books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo Over	PHI@RED	7:11 PM	7.5	10.0	-105	FanDuel Over 7.5 -102 \| best price	33.1%	✓✓✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Ryan Feltner Over	ROC@GIA	9:46 PM	3.5	4.4	-166	DK Over 3.5 -166 \| exact	25.1%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Gavin Williams Over	GUA@TWI	1:41 PM	6.5	7.5	+125	BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 \| alt rescue	15.8%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Andre Pallante Over	BRE@CAR	7:46 PM	3.5	4.0	-152	BetMGM Over 3.5 -120 \| best price	14.3%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Merrill Kelly Under	DIA@PAD	9:41 PM	4.5	3.9	-171	DK Under 4.5 -171 \| exact	14.1%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	David Peterson Under	CUB@ORI	1:36 PM	4.5	4.0	-151	DK Under 4.5 -151 \| exact	11.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Reid Detmers Over	ANG@RAN	8:06 PM	6.5	7.3	+103	BetMGM Over 5.5 -155 \| alt rescue	11.7%	✓✗✗✓–✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Bryce Elder Over	BRA@PIR	12:36 PM	4.5	5.0	+102	BetMGM Over 4.5 +105 \| best price	10.9%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Drew Rasmussen Over	YAN@RAY	1:10 PM	6.5	7.2	+116	Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +125 \| best price	10.2%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Anthony Kay Under	SOX@SOX	2:11 PM	4.5	4.1	-129	DK Under 4.5 -129 \| exact	9.2%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Griffin Canning Under	DIA@PAD	9:41 PM	4.5	4.1	-169	DK Under 4.5 -169 \| exact	8.2%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael Wacha Under	ROY@MET	1:11 PM	4.5	4.3	+123	DK Under 4.5 +123 \| exact	4.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Brady Singer Over	PHI@RED	7:11 PM	5.5	5.8	+115	BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 \| alt rescue	4.5%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.45 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Michael Wacha Over	ROY@MET	1:11 PM	17.5	19.9	-163	FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 \| best price	14.0%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.25 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Nathan Eovaldi Over	ANG@RAN	8:06 PM	18.5	20.8	+116	FanDuel Over 18.5 +116 \| best price	12.2%	✓✗✗✓–✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Merrill Kelly Under	DIA@PAD	9:41 PM	17.5	15.8	-103	DK Under 17.5 -103 \| exact	9.8%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Bryce Miller Over	MAR@MAR	6:41 PM	17.5	19.2	-163	FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 \| best price	9.8%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Drew Rasmussen Over	YAN@RAY	1:10 PM	17.5	19.0	-165	Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -160 \| best price	8.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Jesus Luzardo Over	PHI@RED	7:11 PM	17.5	19.0	-146	FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 \| best price	8.4%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Andre Pallante Under	BRE@CAR	7:46 PM	17.5	17.2	-122	DK Under 17.5 -122 \| exact	1.5%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Gavin Williams Under	GUA@TWI	1:41 PM	17.5	17.4	-110	DK Under 17.5 -110 \| exact	0.5%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Bailey Ober Under	GUA@TWI	1:41 PM	5.5	5.1	-162	DK Under 5.5 -162 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Gavin Williams Under	GUA@TWI	1:41 PM	5.5	5.2	-139	DK Under 5.5 -139 \| exact	5.5%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Brady Singer Under	PHI@RED	7:11 PM	5.5	5.3	+110	DK Under 5.5 +110 \| exact	3.6%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Drew Rasmussen Under	YAN@RAY	1:10 PM	1.5	1.2	-144	DK Under 1.5 -144 \| exact	20.6%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Bailey Ober Over	GUA@TWI	1:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+152	DK Over 1.5 +152 \| exact	5.3%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Bryce Miller Over	MAR@MAR	6:41 PM	1.5	1.7	-155	DK Over 1.5 -155 \| exact	13.3%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)	Pitcher Earned R	Bailey Ober Over	GUA@TWI	1:41 PM	2.5	2.8	-102	DK Over 2.5 -102 \| exact	12.0%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Pitcher Earned R	Reid Detmers Under	ANG@RAN	8:06 PM	2.5	2.2	-153	DK Under 2.5 -153 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Gavin Williams Under	GUA@TWI	1:41 PM	2.5	2.3	-131	DK Under 2.5 -131 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Griffin Canning Under	DIA@PAD	9:41 PM	2.5	2.4	-144	DK Under 2.5 -144 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Ryan Feltner Under	ROC@GIA	9:46 PM	2.5	2.5	-103	DK Under 2.5 -103 \| exact	-	✓✗✗––✓	ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Janson Junk Over	MAR@MAR	6:41 PM	3.5	4.1	-125	BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 \| best price	16.4%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sean Manaea Over	ROY@MET	1:11 PM	4.5	5.2	-159	BetOnline Over 4.5 -159 \| best price	15.4%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi Over	ANG@RAN	8:06 PM	7.5	8.6	+122	FanDuel Over 6.5 -156 \| alt rescue	14.6%	✓✗✓✓–✓	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Mitch Keller Over	BRA@PIR	12:36 PM	3.5	4.0	-152	BetMGM Over 3.5 -130 \| best price	13.4%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Trevor Rogers Over	CUB@ORI	1:36 PM	4.5	4.9	-128	FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 \| best price	8.3%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Bailey Ober Over	GUA@TWI	1:41 PM	3.5	3.7	-150	BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 \| best price	5.0%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Bryce Miller Over	MAR@MAR	6:41 PM	6.5	6.6	+126	BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 \| alt rescue	0.9%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Reid Detmers Over	ANG@RAN	8:06 PM	17.5	19.1	-159	FanDuel Over 17.5 -158 \| best price	9.3%	✓✗✓✓–✓	MONITOR

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script