| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 374 | 58% | +5.66u | 62 | 66% | +9.34u | 173 | 61% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 332 | 59% | +17.11u | 74 | 66% | +10.34u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 286 | 59% | +1.74u | 105 | 59% | +0.54u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 206 | 59% | -11.57u | 73 | 60% | -3.51u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 98 | 46% | -12.02u | 12 | 58% | +0.72u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | 74.8 | 81.5 | 74.5 | 6 | Changeup (60% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 36.2%, put-away 25.3%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | 68.3 | 70.2 | 71.5 | 3 | Slider (53% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 32.1%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | 65.3 | 62.6 | 71.5 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 59% usage) | Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Steven Cruz | Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets | 63.9 | 77.5 | 52.0 | 3 | Cutter (37% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 33.3%, put-away 27.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | 63.1 | 62.2 | 66.5 | 4 | Changeup (37% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Dean Kremer | Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs | 60.5 | 71.4 | 53.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (45% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 27.7%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | 60.4 | 48.3 | 76.0 | 6 | Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | 58.8 | 72.2 | 45.0 | 4 | Changeup (38% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 32.7%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | 58.3 | 50.2 | 70.5 | 6 | Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | 54.6 | 56.6 | 55.0 | 6 | Curveball (32% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | 52.8 | 40.1 | 65.0 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | 52.1 | 55.8 | 50.5 | 6 | Slider (42% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins | 51.2 | 44.6 | 57.5 | 6 | Sweeper (27% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros | 50.9 | 51.7 | 52.0 | 7 | Changeup (35% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | 50.3 | 58.3 | 47.5 | 4 | Changeup (35% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | 50.1 | 58.6 | 39.5 | 3 | Slider (39% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | 49.1 | 46.9 | 51.0 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | 48.4 | 59.1 | 40.5 | 7 | Curveball (41% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals | 47.2 | 55.5 | 39.5 | 6 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.2 | 52.6 | 42.0 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays | 46.9 | 43.5 | 52.5 | 5 | Changeup (29% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.7 | 53.6 | 43.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | 46.0 | 47.1 | 42.0 | 5 | Changeup (40% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners | 46.0 | 51.9 | 39.0 | 6 | Curveball (45% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | 42.9 | 41.0 | 43.5 | 7 | Curveball (31% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 40.1 | 37.2 | 43.5 | 2 | 4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 66% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 5.9%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 2 pitch type(s) |
| Jose Cabrera | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 36.0 | 48.6 | 17.0 | 6 | Sweeper (46% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.381, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | 34.0 | 38.2 | 29.0 | 7 | Slider (33% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | 31.8 | 36.6 | 27.5 | 7 | Changeup (26% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Cabrera | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | R | 19.9% | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 74 | short | full | 17.00 | 83.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | L | 19.0% | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 18.6% | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 62 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Dean Kremer | Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs | R | 26.6% | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 96 | normal | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | L | 21.9% | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 99 | normal | full | 76.00 | 24.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 16.0% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 79 | short | full | 29.00 | 71.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | R | 20.2% | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 79 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 29.8% | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | R | 17.1% | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gabriel Hughes | Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 22.0% | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6%, recent_form_unavailable |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | R | 21.8% | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 104 | deep | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | R | 25.6% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Steven Cruz | Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets | R | 28.5% | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 17 | short | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | R | 22.4% | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | R | 23.0% | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 79 | short | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners | R | 17.0% | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 84 | short | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 29.4% | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 72 | short | full | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 23.5% | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 94 | normal | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals | R | 27.3% | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 76 | short | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 23.2% | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 80 | short | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | R | 23.9% | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 64 | short | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.8 IP/start |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 19.0% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 20.5% | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 114 | deep | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.9% |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins | R | 22.2% | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 101 | deep | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 15.2% | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 97 | normal | full | 27.50 | 72.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | L | 22.7% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 80 | short | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 26.1% | 6.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | R | 37.6% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 74.50 | 25.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros | L | 24.3% | 6.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 52.00 | 48.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | Gerrit Cole Under | New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 14.0 | -3.5 | 20.2% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.3 | 80 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Logan Webb | Logan Webb Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | 18.5 | 20.5 | 2.0 | 11.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 114 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.04 <= 3 min |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Over | Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 9.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Foster Griffin | Foster Griffin Over | Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 9.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Walbert Urena | Walbert Urena Under | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 9.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Dylan Cease | Dylan Cease Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 7.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael King | Michael King Under | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 16.2 | -1.3 | 7.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Davis Martin | Davis Martin Under | Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 16.3 | -1.2 | 7.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.5 | 79 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Chase Burns | Chase Burns Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds | 17.5 | 18.4 | 0.8 | 4.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Troy Melton | Troy Melton Over | Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 4.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| MacKenzie Gore | MacKenzie Gore Over | Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 1.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -136 | K Prop | Troy Melton Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -136 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 25.6% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -133 | K Prop | MacKenzie Gore Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 6.5 | 7.8 | -133 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | best price | 20.8% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Good Add Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Spencer Arrighetti Over | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 4.5 | 6.7 | -134 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 47.8% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Gerrit Cole Under | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 14.0 | -122 | DK Under 17.5 -122 | exact | 20.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Troy Melton Under | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 3.4 | -155 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price | 38.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | George Kirby Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 7.4 | -162 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price | 34.5% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Grant Holmes Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 3.9 | -138 | DK Under 5.5 -138 | exact | 29.1% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Spencer Arrighetti Under | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -144 | DK Under 5.5 -144 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Foster Griffin Under | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -128 | DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Hits All | Jake Bennett Under | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -151 | DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Dean Kremer Under | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -131 | DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | MacKenzie Gore Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -157 | DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Tyler Phillips Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -167 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price | 47.3% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Colin Rea Over | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -153 | DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact | 40.9% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Roki Sasaki Over | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -138 | DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact | 38.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Christian Scott Over | ROY@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -120 | DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact | 36.2% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-203); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Jeffrey Springs Under | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -203 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -200 | best price | 32.9% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Dean Kremer Over | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -159 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price | 31.4% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Connor Prielipp Over | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -145 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price | 30.7% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Connor Prielipp Over | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -159 | DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | MacKenzie Gore Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -167 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 53.3% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Chase Burns Under | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.6 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 36.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Shane McClanahan Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -136 | DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -141 | DK Over 2.5 -141 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Jared Jones Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -162 | DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Foster Griffin Under | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -121 | DK Under 2.5 -121 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Christian Scott Under | ROY@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -152 | DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Davis Martin Under | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -149 | DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Bennett Under | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -142 | DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 46.7% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 4.5 | 6.5 | -104 | BetOnline Over 4.5 +100 | best price | 44.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jose Cabrera Over | DIA@PAD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.3 | -127 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -124 | best price | 24.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 7.5 | 9.0 | +121 | FanDuel Over 7.5 +128 | best price | 20.5% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Bennett Over | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | +108 | BetMGM Over 4.5 +110 | best price | 19.8% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -158 | DK Under 5.5 -158 | exact | 17.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -103 | BetOnline Over 4.5 +113 | best price | 15.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | George Kirby Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -151 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -149 | best price | 15.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Slade Cecconi Under | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | -170 | DK Under 4.5 -170 | exact | 13.6% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Dean Kremer Over | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | +129 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -143 | alt rescue | 13.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@GIA | 3:46 PM | 7.5 | 8.5 | +118 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -160 | alt rescue | 13.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gerrit Cole Under | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | +111 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -186 | alt rescue | 13.1% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael McGreevy Over | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -117 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -105 | best price | 12.6% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grant Holmes Over | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -125 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -118 | best price | 12.2% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Connor Prielipp Under | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | +113 | DK Under 5.5 +113 | exact | 9.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | +117 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -190 | alt rescue | 9.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane McClanahan Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -119 | BetOnline Over 5.5 +100 | best price | 9.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael King Under | DIA@PAD | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -117 | DK Under 4.5 -117 | exact | 6.9% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Colin Rea Under | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -166 | DK Under 4.5 -166 | exact | 5.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Foster Griffin Over | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +122 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue | 3.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Webb Over | JAY@GIA | 3:46 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | -121 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -119 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Christian Scott Under | ROY@MET | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +102 | BetMGM Under 5.5 +110 | best price | 0.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.04 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Webb Over | JAY@GIA | 3:46 PM | 18.5 | 20.5 | -113 | FanDuel Over 18.5 -102 | best price | 11.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | George Kirby Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 19.2 | -162 | DK Over 17.5 -162 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Foster Griffin Over | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 19.2 | -148 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price | 9.5% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Walbert Urena Under | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 15.9 | -129 | DK Under 17.5 -129 | exact | 9.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@GIA | 3:46 PM | 17.5 | 18.9 | -143 | DK Over 17.5 -143 | exact | 7.8% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael King Under | DIA@PAD | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.2 | -105 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +100 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Davis Martin Under | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.3 | -120 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price | 7.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Chase Burns Over | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.4 | +100 | BetMGM Over 17.5 +105 | best price | 4.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Troy Melton Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -110 | DK Over 17.5 -110 | exact | 4.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | MacKenzie Gore Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.8 | -152 | DK Over 17.5 -152 | exact | 1.6% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael McGreevy Under | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | +113 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -155 | alt rescue | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Logan Webb Under | JAY@GIA | 3:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | +116 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -150 | alt rescue | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jeffrey Springs Under | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -150 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Slade Cecconi Under | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -126 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Colin Rea Under | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -144 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Gerrit Cole Under | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -140 | DK Under 5.5 -140 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Davis Martin Over | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +113 | DK Over 5.5 +113 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Troy Melton Over | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -113 | DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact | 29.8% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -148 | DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact | 23.6% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Chase Burns Over | PHI@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -136 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price | 20.6% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Spencer Arrighetti Over | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | +103 | DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact | 18.8% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jose Cabrera Over | DIA@PAD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -112 | DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact | 11.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Grant Holmes Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -182 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -180 | best price | 9.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Shane McClanahan Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +123 | DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact | 8.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Michael McGreevy Over | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -138 | DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact | 8.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Michael King Under | DIA@PAD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 7.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Davis Martin Under | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -131 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price | 7.1% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Dylan Cease Under | JAY@GIA | 3:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -160 | DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Foster Griffin Over | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -149 | DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact | 4.2% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jake Bennett Over | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +147 | DK Over 1.5 +147 | exact | 3.9% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Slade Cecconi Under | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -138 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -135 | best price | 3.2% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jared Jones Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -110 | DK Under 1.5 -110 | exact | 2.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | George Kirby Over | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +119 | DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact | 2.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Logan Webb Under | JAY@GIA | 3:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -120 | DK Under 1.5 -120 | exact | 1.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Gerrit Cole Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +139 | DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact | 0.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +122 | DK Over 2.5 +122 | exact | 0.8% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Spencer Arrighetti Under | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -152 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price | 17.1% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Walbert Urena Under | ANG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Troy Melton Under | ATH@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -131 | DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Grant Holmes Under | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -114 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Roki Sasaki Over | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +110 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +115 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Webb Under | JAY@GIA | 3:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -149 | DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Colin Rea Over | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -134 | DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dylan Cease Under | JAY@GIA | 3:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | +109 | DK Under 1.5 +109 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Harrison Over | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -162 | DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dean Kremer Under | CUB@ORI | 6:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -103 | DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | George Kirby Under | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -118 | DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Gerrit Cole Under | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -151 | DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Slade Cecconi Under | GUA@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -122 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael McGreevy Over | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -119 | DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael King Over | DIA@PAD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +123 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -175 | alt rescue | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jose Cabrera Under | DIA@PAD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Phillips Under | MAR@MAR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -124 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jared Jones Over | BRA@PIR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -154 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price | 16.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Davis Martin Over | SOX@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -134 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price | 14.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Roki Sasaki Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | +101 | DK Under 5.5 +101 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script