| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 363 | 58% | +7.15u | 65 | 71% | +13.57u | 169 | 61% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 325 | 59% | +15.69u | 75 | 63% | +6.20u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 272 | 58% | -4.55u | 106 | 53% | -10.84u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 193 | 59% | -10.81u | 70 | 57% | -6.57u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 97 | 46% | -11.02u | 12 | 58% | +0.72u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | 69.3 | 72.3 | 74.0 | 3 | Changeup (46% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 26.5%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | 63.4 | 62.0 | 69.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (32% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | 61.9 | 61.5 | 65.0 | 6 | Slider (39% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays | 58.0 | 55.1 | 63.0 | 5 | Curveball (36% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | 56.6 | 58.6 | 56.5 | 3 | Split-Finger (39% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 55.3 | 54.3 | 56.5 | 5 | Curveball (36% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | 50.6 | 47.6 | 55.0 | 6 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | 49.6 | 69.2 | 30.5 | 6 | Sweeper (40% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 30.8%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mike Burrows | Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | 44.7 | 45.6 | 41.5 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 44.3 | 49.9 | 37.0 | 6 | Curveball (39% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Reynaldo López | Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | 43.7 | 46.9 | 42.0 | 4 | Slider (33% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | 42.8 | 46.5 | 37.5 | 6 | Changeup (32% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 42.7 | 42.1 | 44.5 | 7 | Curveball (30% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 38.7 | 46.9 | 27.5 | 6 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | 35.3 | 33.2 | 35.0 | 5 | Cutter (23% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 13.0%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros | 34.7 | 26.7 | 39.0 | 6 | Slider (19% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 15.2%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | R | 17.4% | 1.9 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 32 | short | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.9 IP/start |
| Reynaldo López | Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | R | 21.9% | 2.8 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 47 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.8 IP/start |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 19.5% | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 96 | normal | full | 27.50 | 72.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Mike Burrows | Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | R | 17.1% | 4.4 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 74 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 18.8% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 79 | short | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | L | 14.5% | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 92 | normal | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 23.7% | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 86 | short | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | R | 19.7% | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 76 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 30.8% | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 69.00 | 31.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 18.8% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | L | 27.8% | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 101 | deep | full | 74.00 | 26.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 22.9% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 79 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 25.5% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 79 | short | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 20.0% |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 25.4% | 5.8 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | R | 24.1% | 5.2 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 87 | normal | full | 30.50 | 69.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | R | 23.5% | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros | R | 12.0% | 5.5 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 92 | normal | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | Eric Lauer Under | Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 17.5 | 13.5 | -4.0 | 23.1% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | normal | 5.1 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals | 19.5 | 22.0 | 2.5 | 12.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.4 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.8% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5 clears, but raw gap +2.49 <= 3 min |
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 18.1 | 0.6 | 3.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | Kevin Gausman Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -134 | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@ROY | 2:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.9 | -134 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -113 | best price | 22.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Eric Lauer Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.0 | -139 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -130 | best price | 32.1% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Miles Mikolas Under | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 2.4 | -147 | BetOnline Under 3.5 -147 | best price | 30.3% | ✓✓!!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Reynaldo Lopez Under | MET@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 3.4 | -125 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -125 | best price | 25.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Eric Lauer Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 13.5 | -108 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -108 | best price | 23.1% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Dustin May Under | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -167 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -165 | best price | 25.4% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Eric Lauer Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -109 | DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Cameron Over | PHI@ROY | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | -139 | DK Over 5.5 -139 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cam Schlittler Under | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.6 | -172 | DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact | 36.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Jax Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -127 | DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Drohan Under | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -151 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Pfaadt Under | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -161 | DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Eric Lauer Over | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -145 | DK Over 2.5 -145 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books) | K Prop | Dustin May Over | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 4.5 | 6.5 | +120 | Fanatics Over 3.5 -150 | alt rescue | 45.4% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Mike Burrows Over | AST@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -166 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -160 | best price | 20.5% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Griffin Jax Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -106 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price | 18.3% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Drohan Over | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +124 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -160 | alt rescue | 5.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Under | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -155 | FanDuel Under 6.5 -140 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Freeland Over | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +113 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -160 | alt rescue | 3.9% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | +129 | DK Under 4.5 +129 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Over | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -102 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price | 1.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.8% vs 10% min using selected line 19.5 clears, but raw gap +2.49 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@ROY | 2:11 PM | 19.5 | 22.0 | -135 | FanDuel Over 19.5 -112 | best price | 12.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cam Schlittler Over | YAN@RAY | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.1 | -165 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -160 | best price | 3.7% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kevin Gausman Under | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | +114 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +124 | best price | 1.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Drohan Under | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -158 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Freeland Over | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | +116 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -150 | alt rescue | 12.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Landen Roupp Under | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -134 | DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kevin Gausman Over | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | +100 | DK Over 5.5 +100 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sanchez Under | PHI@ROY | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -106 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Cristopher Sanchez Under | PHI@ROY | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -213 | DK Under 1.5 -213 | exact | 21.8% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Noah Cameron Under | PHI@ROY | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -115 | DK Under 1.5 -115 | exact | 9.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Landen Roupp Under | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -152 | DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Walker Buehler Under | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -130 | DK Under 2.5 -130 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Cameron Over | PHI@ROY | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -133 | DK Over 2.5 -133 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dustin May Under | BRE@CAR | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -156 | DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@ROY | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -163 | DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Freeland Under | ROC@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -127 | DK Under 3.5 -127 | exact | 2.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kevin Gausman Under | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -157 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Cameron Under | PHI@ROY | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -150 | DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact | 17.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Landen Roupp Over | JAY@GIA | 9:46 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -143 | DK Over 4.5 -143 | exact | 16.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Over | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -163 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -140 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Pfaadt Over | DIA@PAD | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -120 | Fanatics Over 3.5 -105 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script