| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 360 | 58% | +6.86u | 67 | 69% | +11.63u | 167 | 61% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 314 | 59% | +15.98u | 68 | 65% | +7.89u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 265 | 58% | -4.26u | 107 | 54% | -8.72u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 185 | 59% | -9.04u | 71 | 59% | -4.35u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 97 | 46% | -11.02u | 13 | 62% | +1.27u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | 68.1 | 65.6 | 76.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (36% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Murphy | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | 65.0 | 66.6 | 67.0 | 6 | Slider (36% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 32.2%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | 63.5 | 61.2 | 68.0 | 3 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | 59.3 | 55.0 | 67.5 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | 58.3 | 54.7 | 66.0 | 6 | Curveball (44% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 57.1 | 57.8 | 62.5 | 7 | Curveball (40% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | 56.8 | 65.9 | 50.5 | 4 | Slider (39% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | 54.3 | 50.4 | 58.5 | 7 | Changeup (39% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Miami Marlins | 54.0 | 49.9 | 60.5 | 5 | Curveball (27% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.3 | 57.8 | 50.0 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | 53.0 | 54.5 | 52.5 | 4 | Curveball (43% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | 51.2 | 62.6 | 41.5 | 5 | Sweeper (45% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Athletics | 50.6 | 62.5 | 40.5 | 6 | Slider (42% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox | 49.5 | 43.5 | 47.0 | 4 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | 48.4 | 51.1 | 44.0 | 6 | Curveball (38% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 48.4 | 47.4 | 49.5 | 6 | Slider (33% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 48.0 | 54.1 | 41.5 | 6 | Curveball (35% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | 47.4 | 51.5 | 43.5 | 5 | Slider (40% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | 47.2 | 51.4 | 41.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 35% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | 46.6 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 5 | Slider (26% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | 46.5 | 50.3 | 44.0 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | 46.4 | 51.8 | 43.5 | 6 | Cutter (35% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | 46.2 | 48.9 | 42.0 | 5 | Changeup (36% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | 43.5 | 42.3 | 46.0 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 38.7 | 45.2 | 28.0 | 7 | Curveball (37% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | 37.3 | 39.3 | 37.5 | 5 | Changeup (22% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles | 34.1 | 42.0 | 20.5 | 4 | Curveball (36% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.374, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Javier Assad | Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | 32.0 | 24.3 | 38.0 | 7 | Cutter (15% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 13.9%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 29.1 | 50.9 | 0.0 | 6 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.415, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 16.8% | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 96 | normal | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Miami Marlins | L | 24.9% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | L | 18.9% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 24.7% | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 26.5% | 5.9 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Javier Assad | Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 17.5% | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 82 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Chris Murphy | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 25.6% | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 18 | short | full | 67.00 | 33.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 19.1% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 79 | short | full | 20.50 | 79.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | R | 19.8% | 6.6 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 111 | deep | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | R | 20.4% | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 77 | short | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | R | 26.5% | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 76.00 | 24.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 21.6% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 18.7% |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 22.0% | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 80 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox | R | 19.6% | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 67 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | R | 25.1% | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 69 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Athletics | R | 27.5% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 82 | short | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 26.2% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 86 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | R | 28.4% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | R | 28.9% | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | L | 24.8% | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 79 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | R | 22.1% | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 76 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | R | 20.5% | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 92 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 20.6% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 79 | short | full | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | R | 21.9% | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 82 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 23.4% | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 20.0% |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | L | 21.8% | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 65 | short | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | R | 22.0% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 79 | short | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | R | 20.7% | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 96 | normal | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 25.9% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lambert | Peter Lambert Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 15.2 | -2.3 | 13.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.28 <= 3 min |
| Gage Jump | Gage Jump Under | Miami Marlins @ Athletics | 17.5 | 16.1 | -1.4 | 7.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Trey Yesavage | Trey Yesavage Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 16.3 | -1.2 | 6.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Ranger Suarez | Ranger Suarez Over | Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | 17.5 | 18.1 | 0.6 | 3.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Casey Mize | Casey Mize Under | Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 16.9 | -0.6 | 3.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -162, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch, expected IP 5.0 below A-grade… | K Prop | Tyler Mahle Over | GIA@ROC | 4:00 PM | 3.5 | 4.6 | -162 | BetOnline Over 3.5 -161 | best price | 30.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: full-lineup opp K% 20.8%, 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -145 | K Prop | Nolan McLean Over | MET@BRA | 12:30 PM | 5.5 | 6.8 | -145 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 | best price | 23.1% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Martin Perez Under | MET@BRA | 12:30 PM | 4.5 | 3.4 | -144 | DK Under 4.5 -144 | exact | 24.9% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Bubba Chandler Under | PIR@NAT | 1:01 PM | 5.5 | 3.7 | -151 | DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact | 32.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Luinder Avila Under | PHI@ROY | 3:01 PM | 5.5 | 3.8 | -150 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 30.9% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Martin Perez Under | MET@BRA | 12:30 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -106 | Fanatics Under 5.5 +105 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Nolan McLean Under | MET@BRA | 12:30 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -139 | DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact | 25.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Johnson Under | SOX@ANG | 9:31 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -151 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 25.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Javier Assad Under | CAR@CUB | 2:30 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -163 | DK Under 5.5 -163 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Tyler Mahle Under | GIA@ROC | 4:00 PM | 6.5 | 5.1 | -138 | DK Under 6.5 -138 | exact | 21.5% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Peter Lambert Under | RAY@AST | 3:31 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -139 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Emerson Hancock Under | JAY@MAR | 5:00 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -145 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | JP Sears Over | PAD@DOD | 7:21 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -109 | DK Over 5.5 -109 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | BRE@DIA | 4:00 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | +111 | DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-252); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Tanner Gordon Over | GIA@ROC | 4:00 PM | 0.5 | 1.1 | -252 | DK Over 0.5 -252 | exact | 120.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@NAT | 1:01 PM | 1.5 | 3.0 | -148 | DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact | 96.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-203); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Peter Lambert Over | RAY@AST | 3:31 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -203 | DK Over 1.5 -203 | exact | 69.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-199); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Eury Perez Over | MAR@ATH | 4:31 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -199 | DK Over 1.5 -199 | exact | 62.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Nolan McLean Over | MET@BRA | 12:30 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -147 | DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact | 52.8% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Matthew Liberatore Over | CAR@CUB | 2:30 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -184 | DK Over 1.5 -184 | exact | 32.2% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | JP Sears Over | PAD@DOD | 7:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -160 | DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact | 28.7% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Casey Mize Under | TIG@RAN | 3:31 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -174 | DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Mason Englert Under | RAY@AST | 3:31 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -165 | DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Gordon Under | GIA@ROC | 4:00 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | -126 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -120 | best price | 22.9% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Mahle Under | GIA@ROC | 4:00 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | -118 | DK Under 3.5 -118 | exact | 22.9% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Nolan McLean Under | MET@BRA | 12:30 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -122 | DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Javier Assad Under | CAR@CUB | 2:30 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -125 | BetRivers Under 3.5 -117 | best price | 20.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | JP Sears Over | PAD@DOD | 7:21 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -163 | BetRivers Over 3.5 +280 | best price | 20.4% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kumar Rocker Over | TIG@RAN | 3:31 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -149 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price | 16.0% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Mason Englert Under | RAY@AST | 3:31 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -107 | DK Under 3.5 -107 | exact | 15.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | BRE@DIA | 4:00 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | -157 | DK Under 4.5 -157 | exact | 13.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Sproat Over | BRE@DIA | 4:00 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | +120 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +132 | best price | 11.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Emerson Hancock Over | JAY@MAR | 5:00 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -101 | BetOnline Over 4.5 +100 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan Over | PAD@DOD | 7:21 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +100 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +104 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Bibee Under | SOX@GUA | 2:00 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -154 | DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact | 9.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Casey Mize Over | TIG@RAN | 3:31 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +113 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue | 6.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@NAT | 1:01 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -113 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -105 | best price | 6.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ranger Suarez Over | SOX@ANG | 9:31 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | +110 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +118 | best price | 5.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Under | PIR@NAT | 1:01 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -157 | BetRivers Under 6.5 -150 | best price | 4.7% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gage Jump Under | MAR@ATH | 4:31 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -153 | BetOnline Under 5.5 -152 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Peter Lambert Over | RAY@AST | 3:31 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -122 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -104 | best price | 3.3% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Bradish Over | ORI@RED | 1:05 PM | 6.5 | 6.7 | -118 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -115 | best price | 3.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Joe Ryan Over | TWI@YAN | 1:35 PM | 6.5 | 6.6 | -117 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -110 | best price | 2.1% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Gordon Over | GIA@ROC | 4:00 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -105 | Fanatics Over 3.5 +105 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Luinder Avila Under | PHI@ROY | 3:01 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -157 | DK Under 4.5 -157 | exact | 0.9% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Nola Under | PHI@ROY | 3:01 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -163 | DK Under 5.5 -163 | exact | 0.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Liberatore Under | CAR@CUB | 2:30 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -146 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 0.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.28 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Peter Lambert Under | RAY@AST | 3:31 PM | 17.5 | 15.2 | -111 | DK Under 17.5 -111 | exact | 13.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gage Jump Under | MAR@ATH | 4:31 PM | 17.5 | 16.1 | -133 | DK Under 17.5 -133 | exact | 7.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Trey Yesavage Under | JAY@MAR | 5:00 PM | 17.5 | 16.3 | -133 | Caesars Under 17.5 -121 | best price | 6.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ranger Suarez Over | SOX@ANG | 9:31 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -157 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -146 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | BRE@DIA | 4:00 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | -125 | Caesars Under 17.5 -121 | best price | 4.4% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Over | MET@BRA | 12:30 PM | 17.5 | 18.1 | -127 | DK Over 17.5 -127 | exact | 3.4% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Casey Mize Under | TIG@RAN | 3:31 PM | 17.5 | 16.9 | -123 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -120 | best price | 3.3% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cade Cavalli Under | PIR@NAT | 1:01 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -121 | DK Under 5.5 -121 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Gage Jump Under | MAR@ATH | 4:31 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -133 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@ROY | 3:01 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -110 | DK Over 5.5 -110 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Gordon Under | GIA@ROC | 4:00 PM | 6.5 | 6.3 | -113 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -105 | best price | 3.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matthew Liberatore Over | CAR@CUB | 2:30 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +124 | theScore Bet Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Martin Perez Over | MET@BRA | 12:30 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +100 | DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact | 44.1% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Tyler Mahle Over | GIA@ROC | 4:00 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +102 | DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact | 36.5% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Gage Jump Over | MAR@ATH | 4:31 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +115 | DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact | 21.1% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Luinder Avila Under | PHI@ROY | 3:01 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -161 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 14.6% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Kumar Rocker Over | TIG@RAN | 3:31 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -172 | DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact | 14.6% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Casey Mize Under | TIG@RAN | 3:31 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -160 | DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact | 14.2% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Emerson Hancock Under | JAY@MAR | 5:00 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -192 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price | 11.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Mason Englert Under | RAY@AST | 3:31 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -162 | DK Under 1.5 -162 | exact | 11.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cade Cavalli Over | PIR@NAT | 1:01 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -111 | DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact | 10.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Brandon Sproat Under | BRE@DIA | 4:00 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -179 | DK Under 2.5 -179 | exact | 6.9% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Emmet Sheehan Under | PAD@DOD | 7:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -120 | DK Under 1.5 -120 | exact | 6.4% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Aaron Nola Under | PHI@ROY | 3:01 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -105 | DK Under 1.5 -105 | exact | 5.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Javier Assad Under | CAR@CUB | 2:30 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -154 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price | 3.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Trey Yesavage Over | JAY@MAR | 5:00 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +121 | DK Over 2.5 +121 | exact | 2.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | BRE@DIA | 4:00 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +145 | DK Over 2.5 +145 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Javier Assad Over | CAR@CUB | 2:30 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | -172 | DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact | 73.3% | ✓✓✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Ranger Suarez Over | SOX@ANG | 9:31 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -168 | DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Cade Cavalli Under | PIR@NAT | 1:01 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -139 | DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Emmet Sheehan Under | PAD@DOD | 7:21 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -167 | DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Martin Perez Under | MET@BRA | 12:30 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -101 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Luinder Avila Under | PHI@ROY | 3:01 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -107 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Kumar Rocker Under | TIG@RAN | 3:31 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -172 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Gage Jump Under | MAR@ATH | 4:31 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -154 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Liberatore Over | CAR@CUB | 2:30 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -108 | DK Over 2.5 -108 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eury Perez Under | MAR@ATH | 4:31 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -124 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Emerson Hancock Under | JAY@MAR | 5:00 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -160 | DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | JP Sears Under | PAD@DOD | 7:21 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | -132 | Fanatics Under 3.5 -125 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@NAT | 1:01 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -143 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@ROY | 3:01 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -125 | DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Peter Lambert Over | RAY@AST | 3:31 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -125 | DK Over 2.5 -125 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Sproat Under | BRE@DIA | 4:00 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | BRE@DIA | 4:00 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +102 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +115 | best price | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trey Yesavage Under | JAY@MAR | 5:00 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -133 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Johnson Under | SOX@ANG | 9:31 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -134 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price | - | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Lodolo Under | ORI@RED | 1:05 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -104 | DK Under 5.5 -104 | exact | 16.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trey Yesavage Over | JAY@MAR | 5:00 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -141 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price | 10.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Johnson Under | SOX@ANG | 9:31 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -117 | BetRivers Under 4.5 +100 | best price | 9.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eury Perez Over | MAR@ATH | 4:31 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -122 | DK Over 5.5 -122 | exact | 7.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Weathers Over | TWI@YAN | 1:35 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -125 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script