MLB Full Audit Saturday, July 04 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	353	58%	+5.29u	65	68%	+10.73u	165	62%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	307	59%	+14.36u	64	64%	+6.97u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	0	-	+0.00u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	253	59%	+0.98u	105	58%	-2.13u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	181	59%	-8.46u	71	59%	-4.71u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	96	46%	-12.12u	12	58%	+0.17u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	0	-	+0.00u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	4/5	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals	67.0	69.1	67.0	4	Sweeper (48% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 32.1%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	65.9	57.5	79.0	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals	65.1	63.8	70.5	5	Curveball (42% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 25.4%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	63.9	65.3	67.5	4	Slider (38% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	61.0	58.4	68.5	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	60.6	54.1	72.0	6	Changeup (42% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brandon Woodruff	Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	60.2	49.1	75.5	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	58.2	60.4	58.5	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	56.9	59.1	61.0	6	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays	56.4	62.7	55.0	6	Split-Finger (39% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Sullivan	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	52.1	28.8	67.5	5	Changeup (22% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 15.9%, put-away 13.4%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	51.6	46.5	59.5	6	Sweeper (40% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers	51.1	55.8	45.5	5	Curveball (37% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	51.1	49.2	54.0	6	Slider (33% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies	49.8	47.2	53.5	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	49.5	37.4	59.5	4	Sweeper (50% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 11.3%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	49.2	47.0	51.0	5	Sweeper (33% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Athletics	49.1	43.1	54.0	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	47.7	49.0	47.5	6	Slider (38% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds	46.8	47.5	48.0	5	Slider (42% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Wandy Peralta	San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	45.8	42.1	49.5	4	Changeup (31% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	45.5	51.6	42.0	5	Slider (36% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers	39.4	39.7	38.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 12.8%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sam Aldegheri	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	36.9	37.4	35.0	5	Changeup (33% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Aaron Civale	Athletics vs Miami Marlins	36.3	37.4	31.0	6	Cutter (26% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	35.5	45.4	25.0	6	Changeup (39% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers	22.1	35.7	3.5	6	Slider (33% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.408, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	14.3	34.0	0.0	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 10.7%, xwOBA 0.542, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brendan Beck	New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins	12.3	20.8	0.0	2	Slider (43% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 16.4%, put-away 4.3%, xwOBA 0.481, arsenal coverage 2 pitch type(s)
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	12.2%	5.6	5.8	5.8	94	normal	full	3.50	96.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Aaron Civale	Athletics vs Miami Marlins	R	15.3%	4.2	4.8	4.7	70	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	L	29.4%	5.3	6.0	6.0	89	normal	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds	R	19.1%	5.8	5.6	5.6	97	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	R	23.6%	6.6	5.6	5.8	111	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	22.3%	5.5	5.8	5.7	92	normal	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	R	26.4%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%, season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	L	26.0%	6.0	5.9	6.0	101	deep	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Sullivan	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	L	18.7%	4.0	4.2	4.9	67	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers	R	28.1%	4.6	4.4	4.5	77	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	26.8%	4.9	5.1	5.3	82	short	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.7%
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	17.4%	6.5	6.4	6.4	109	deep	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sam Aldegheri	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	L	18.2%	3.6	4.3	4.8	60	short	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	R	24.4%	6.6	6.5	6.5	111	deep	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Athletics	R	18.1%	6.5	6.4	6.4	109	deep	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Brandon Woodruff	Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	25.3%	4.9	5.2	5.2	82	short	full	75.50	24.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees	R	19.3%	6.6	6.3	6.3	111	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	L	22.3%	4.7	5.0	5.3	79	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Brendan Beck	New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins	R	21.9%	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	full	0.00	100.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent_form_unavailable
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals	L	28.5%	5.9	5.7	6.0	99	normal	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals	R	28.7%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Wandy Peralta	San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	17.2%	1.2	1.0	3.7	20	short	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	L	19.8%	6.5	5.6	5.8	109	deep	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	28.7%	6.2	5.9	6.0	104	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	R	18.9%	5.2	5.1	5.1	87	normal	full	25.00	75.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros	R	28.5%	6.6	5.8	6.0	111	deep	full	72.00	28.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers	R	19.6%	2.4	3.0	4.6	40	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners	R	18.9%	4.2	4.5	5.3	70	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Carson Palmquist	Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	24.5%	1.7	3.3	4.8	28	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Hunter Brown	Hunter Brown Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros	17.5	13.3	-4.2	23.8%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.3	82	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	22.0	3.5	18.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (7 books) \| books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros	17.5	20.4	2.9	16.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.89 <= 3 min
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	20.2	2.7	15.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.4	109	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.66 <= 3 min
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	19.5	2.0	11.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Miami Marlins @ Athletics	17.5	19.3	1.8	10.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.4	109	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.83 <= 3 min
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	19.3	1.8	10.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.75 <= 3 min
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	18.5	17.3	-1.2	6.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	18.5	19.6	1.1	5.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

80 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► BEST PLAYS
A ⭐ TOP PICK	⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -138, active roster BVP damage OPS 0.911/AVG 0.383 over 50 PA	K Prop	Robbie Ray Over	GIA@ROC	8:11 PM	4.5	6.4	-138	FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 \| best price	43.2%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
► GOOD ADDS
B	🔬 Research Note Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks \| [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matc…	K Prop	Michael Wacha Over	PHI@ROY	8:11 PM	4.5	5.8	-118	FanDuel Over 4.5 -111 \| best price	29.4%	✓✓!!––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks \| [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matc…	K Prop	Zebby Matthews Over	TWI@YAN	1:36 PM	4.5	5.7	-136	FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 \| best price	27.5%	✓✓✓!––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup	K Prop	Hunter Brown Under	RAY@AST	7:11 PM	6.5	5.2	-158	DK Under 6.5 -158 \| exact	19.6%	✓✓!!––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats	K Prop	Hunter Greene Under	ORI@RED	7:11 PM	6.5	5.3	+110	FanDuel Under 6.5 +112 \| best price	17.9%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage	Pitcher Outs	Hunter Brown Under	RAY@AST	7:11 PM	17.5	13.3	+118	Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 \| best price	23.8%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Robbie Ray Under	GIA@ROC	8:11 PM	6.5	3.7	-102	DK Under 6.5 -102 \| exact	43.1%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Hits All	Sonny Gray Under	SOX@ANG	9:39 PM	5.5	4.4	-150	Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 \| best price	20.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Sean Sullivan Under	GIA@ROC	8:11 PM	6.5	5.3	+103	BetMGM Under 6.5 +105 \| best price	18.5%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Hits All	Aaron Civale Over	MAR@ATH	9:41 PM	5.5	6.5	-158	BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 \| best price	18.2%	✓✓✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Walks	Logan Gilbert Over	JAY@MAR	4:11 PM	0.5	1.2	-127	DK Over 0.5 -127 \| exact	148.8%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Robbie Ray Over	GIA@ROC	8:11 PM	1.5	2.4	-159	DK Over 1.5 -159 \| exact	57.4%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-201); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Jack Flaherty Over	TIG@RAN	4:06 PM	1.5	2.1	-201	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 \| best price	37.5%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Walks	Drew Rasmussen Under	RAY@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	1.0	-137	DK Under 1.5 -137 \| exact	30.1%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Jack Flaherty Over	TIG@RAN	4:06 PM	1.5	2.2	-155	DK Over 1.5 -155 \| exact	46.7%	✓✓✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	PAD@DOD	10:11 PM	1.5	2.0	-159	BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 \| best price	33.3%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Sean Sullivan Under	GIA@ROC	8:11 PM	3.5	2.5	-108	BetMGM Under 3.5 +100 \| best price	28.6%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.08x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Brandon Woodruff Under	BRE@DIA	9:41 PM	2.5	1.8	-167	DK Under 2.5 -167 \| exact	28.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Robbie Ray Under	GIA@ROC	8:11 PM	3.5	2.6	-111	BetMGM Under 3.5 -105 \| best price	25.7%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Hunter Brown Under	RAY@AST	7:11 PM	2.5	1.9	-170	DK Under 2.5 -170 \| exact	24.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.07x)	Pitcher Earned R	Jesus Luzardo Under	PHI@ROY	8:11 PM	2.5	1.9	-152	Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 \| best price	24.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Sonny Gray Under	SOX@ANG	9:39 PM	2.5	2.0	-149	DK Under 2.5 -149 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Sandy Alcantara Under	MAR@ATH	9:41 PM	3.5	2.8	-151	BetMGM Under 3.5 -145 \| best price	20.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (7 books) \| books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo Over	PHI@ROY	8:11 PM	6.5	8.9	+119	BetOnline Over 6.5 +120 \| best price	37.1%	✓✓✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Sean Sullivan Under	GIA@ROC	8:11 PM	3.5	2.6	+114	DK Under 3.5 +114 \| exact	26.4%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Aaron Civale Under	MAR@ATH	9:41 PM	3.5	2.6	+102	BetOnline Under 3.5 +110 \| best price	25.0%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Chris Sale Over	MET@BRA	8:09 PM	7.5	8.7	-112	FanDuel Over 7.5 -104 \| best price	15.4%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Parker Messick Over	SOX@GUA	7:11 PM	6.5	7.4	-103	Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +105 \| best price	14.2%	✓✗✗!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Kyle Leahy Under	CAR@CUB	8:09 PM	4.5	3.9	-166	BetMGM Under 4.5 -155 \| best price	13.0%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Logan Gilbert Over	JAY@MAR	4:11 PM	5.5	6.2	+108	BetOnline Over 5.5 +128 \| best price	12.8%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Drew Rasmussen Over	RAY@AST	7:11 PM	5.5	6.1	-145	FanDuel Over 5.5 -138 \| best price	10.1%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Shane Bieber Under	JAY@MAR	4:11 PM	4.5	4.1	+115	BetOnline Under 5.5 -175 \| alt rescue	9.6%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Brandon Woodruff Under	BRE@DIA	9:41 PM	4.5	4.1	-124	BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 \| best price	9.1%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Merrill Kelly Over	BRE@DIA	9:41 PM	3.5	3.8	-144	BetOnline Over 3.5 -143 \| best price	8.7%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sonny Gray Over	SOX@ANG	9:39 PM	6.5	6.8	+105	BetMGM Over 6.5 +110 \| best price	4.3%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sandy Alcantara Over	MAR@ATH	9:41 PM	4.5	4.7	-128	BetMGM Over 4.5 -125 \| best price	4.2%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Samuel Aldegheri Under	SOX@ANG	9:39 PM	3.5	3.4	+119	DK Under 3.5 +119 \| exact	3.1%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	PAD@DOD	10:11 PM	6.5	6.6	+111	DK Over 6.5 +111 \| exact	1.3%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (7 books) \| books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Outs	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	PAD@DOD	10:11 PM	18.5	22.0	+108	DK Over 18.5 +108 \| exact	18.8%	✓✓✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.89 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Drew Rasmussen Over	RAY@AST	7:11 PM	17.5	20.4	-169	BetOnline Over 17.5 -150 \| best price	16.5%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.66 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Michael Wacha Over	PHI@ROY	8:11 PM	17.5	20.2	-148	Caesars Over 17.5 -135 \| best price	15.2%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Jesus Luzardo Over	PHI@ROY	8:11 PM	17.5	19.5	-160	DK Over 17.5 -160 \| exact	11.3%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.83 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Sandy Alcantara Over	MAR@ATH	9:41 PM	17.5	19.3	-163	DK Over 17.5 -163 \| exact	10.4%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.75 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Sonny Gray Over	SOX@ANG	9:39 PM	17.5	19.3	-165	BetOnline Over 17.5 -165 \| best price	10.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Shota Imanaga Under	CAR@CUB	8:09 PM	18.5	17.3	-179	DK Under 18.5 -179 \| exact	6.5%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Chris Sale Over	MET@BRA	8:09 PM	18.5	19.6	+131	FanDuel Over 18.5 +134 \| best price	5.9%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Sean Manaea Under	MET@BRA	8:09 PM	5.5	4.7	-126	Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 \| best price	14.5%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Michael Wacha Under	PHI@ROY	8:11 PM	5.5	5.2	+115	DK Under 5.5 +115 \| exact	5.5%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Sandy Alcantara Under	MAR@ATH	9:41 PM	6.5	6.2	-102	Fanatics Under 6.5 +100 \| best price	4.6%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Zebby Matthews Over	TWI@YAN	1:36 PM	5.5	5.7	-131	Fanatics Over 5.5 -110 \| best price	3.6%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Chris Sale Under	MET@BRA	8:09 PM	5.5	5.5	-149	DK Under 5.5 -149 \| exact	-	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Jesus Luzardo Under	PHI@ROY	8:11 PM	5.5	5.5	-119	DK Under 5.5 -119 \| exact	-	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Merrill Kelly Under	BRE@DIA	9:41 PM	6.5	6.5	-130	DK Under 6.5 -130 \| exact	-	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Walks	Sandy Alcantara Over	MAR@ATH	9:41 PM	1.5	1.8	-103	DK Over 1.5 -103 \| exact	20.8%	✓!✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Walks	Michael Wacha Over	PHI@ROY	8:11 PM	1.5	1.7	+102	theScore Bet Over 1.5 +105 \| best price	14.0%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Shane Bieber Over	JAY@MAR	4:11 PM	1.5	1.7	-157	DK Over 1.5 -157 \| exact	12.7%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Sean Sullivan Under	GIA@ROC	8:11 PM	1.5	1.3	-140	DK Under 1.5 -140 \| exact	12.3%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Zebby Matthews Over	TWI@YAN	1:36 PM	1.5	1.7	-132	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 \| best price	11.9%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Jesus Luzardo Over	PHI@ROY	8:11 PM	1.5	1.7	-129	DK Over 1.5 -129 \| exact	11.5%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Samuel Aldegheri Over	SOX@ANG	9:39 PM	1.5	1.7	-196	DK Over 1.5 -196 \| exact	10.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Chris Sale Under	MET@BRA	8:09 PM	1.5	1.3	-158	theScore Bet Under 1.5 -155 \| best price	10.3%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Hunter Brown Under	RAY@AST	7:11 PM	2.5	2.3	-184	DK Under 2.5 -184 \| exact	8.6%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Aaron Civale Under	MAR@ATH	9:41 PM	1.5	1.4	-149	DK Under 1.5 -149 \| exact	8.5%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Sonny Gray Under	SOX@ANG	9:39 PM	1.5	1.4	-167	theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 \| best price	6.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Sean Manaea Over	MET@BRA	8:09 PM	1.5	1.5	+132	DK Over 1.5 +132 \| exact	1.4%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) \| books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Logan Gilbert Over	JAY@MAR	4:11 PM	1.5	2.2	-113	BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 \| best price	46.7%	✓✓✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Zebby Matthews Under	TWI@YAN	1:36 PM	3.5	2.9	-137	DK Under 3.5 -137 \| exact	17.1%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Merrill Kelly Over	BRE@DIA	9:41 PM	3.5	4.1	+112	DK Over 3.5 +112 \| exact	17.1%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Aaron Civale Under	MAR@ATH	9:41 PM	3.5	3.0	-158	BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 \| best price	14.3%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Sean Manaea Under	MET@BRA	8:09 PM	2.5	2.2	-114	BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 \| best price	12.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Shane Bieber Over	JAY@MAR	4:11 PM	2.5	2.7	-117	BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 \| best price	8.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Drew Rasmussen Over	RAY@AST	7:11 PM	1.5	1.6	-168	BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 \| best price	6.7%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Michael Wacha Over	PHI@ROY	8:11 PM	2.5	2.6	-140	DK Over 2.5 -140 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Chris Sale Under	MET@BRA	8:09 PM	1.5	1.5	+128	DK Under 1.5 +128 \| exact	-	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Samuel Aldegheri Under	SOX@ANG	9:39 PM	2.5	2.5	-111	BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 \| best price	-	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Brandon Young Over	ORI@RED	7:11 PM	4.5	5.4	-131	DK Over 4.5 -131 \| exact	20.8%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Shota Imanaga Over	CAR@CUB	8:09 PM	4.5	5.0	-146	BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 \| best price	11.2%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sean Manaea Over	MET@BRA	8:09 PM	4.5	4.7	-131	BetRivers Over 4.5 -122 \| best price	3.6%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Jack Flaherty Under	TIG@RAN	4:06 PM	5.5	5.4	-134	FanDuel Under 5.5 -113 \| best price	2.3%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sean Burke Under	SOX@GUA	7:11 PM	5.5	5.4	-101	DK Under 5.5 -101 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗✓✓–✓	MONITOR

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script