| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 353 | 58% | +5.29u | 65 | 68% | +10.73u | 165 | 62% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 307 | 59% | +14.36u | 64 | 64% | +6.97u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 253 | 59% | +0.98u | 105 | 58% | -2.13u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 181 | 59% | -8.46u | 71 | 59% | -4.71u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 96 | 46% | -12.12u | 12 | 58% | +0.17u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 4/5 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | 67.0 | 69.1 | 67.0 | 4 | Sweeper (48% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 32.1%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | 65.9 | 57.5 | 79.0 | 5 | Curveball (32% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 65.1 | 63.8 | 70.5 | 5 | Curveball (42% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 25.4%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | 63.9 | 65.3 | 67.5 | 4 | Slider (38% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | 61.0 | 58.4 | 68.5 | 6 | Changeup (38% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | 60.6 | 54.1 | 72.0 | 6 | Changeup (42% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Woodruff | Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 60.2 | 49.1 | 75.5 | 6 | Changeup (37% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | 58.2 | 60.4 | 58.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | 56.9 | 59.1 | 61.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (32% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | 56.4 | 62.7 | 55.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (39% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | 51.6 | 46.5 | 59.5 | 6 | Sweeper (40% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Flaherty | Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | 51.1 | 55.8 | 45.5 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | 51.1 | 49.2 | 54.0 | 6 | Slider (33% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | 49.8 | 47.2 | 53.5 | 6 | Changeup (29% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Carson Palmquist | Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 49.5 | 37.4 | 59.5 | 4 | Sweeper (50% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 11.3%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 49.2 | 47.0 | 51.0 | 5 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Athletics | 49.1 | 43.1 | 54.0 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | 47.7 | 49.0 | 47.5 | 6 | Slider (38% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | 47.2 | 51.5 | 43.0 | 5 | Slider (40% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | 46.8 | 47.5 | 48.0 | 5 | Slider (42% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Canning | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 45.9 | 55.3 | 35.0 | 7 | Slider (40% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | 45.5 | 51.6 | 42.0 | 5 | Slider (36% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sam Aldegheri | Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox | 36.9 | 37.4 | 35.0 | 5 | Changeup (33% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Civale | Athletics vs Miami Marlins | 36.3 | 37.4 | 31.0 | 6 | Cutter (26% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 35.5 | 45.4 | 25.0 | 6 | Changeup (39% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | 22.1 | 35.7 | 3.5 | 6 | Slider (33% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.408, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | 22.1 | 30.2 | 9.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (30% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 17.4%, put-away 11.6%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Bieber | Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | 14.3 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 5 | Curveball (35% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 10.7%, xwOBA 0.542, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brendan Beck | New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | 12.3 | 20.8 | 0.0 | 2 | Slider (43% whiff, 35% usage) | Savant whiff 16.4%, put-away 4.3%, xwOBA 0.481, arsenal coverage 2 pitch type(s) |
| Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 12.2% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 94 | normal | full | 3.50 | 96.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Aaron Civale | Athletics vs Miami Marlins | R | 15.3% | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 70 | short | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | L | 29.4% | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 89 | normal | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 19.1% | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 97 | normal | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 23.6% | 6.6 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 111 | deep | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 22.3% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 26.4% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Hunter Greene | Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1%, season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | L | 26.0% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | R | 13.9% | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 87 | normal | full | 9.00 | 91.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jack Flaherty | Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | R | 28.1% | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 77 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 26.8% | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 17.4% | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 109 | deep | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sam Aldegheri | Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox | L | 18.2% | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 60 | short | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.6 IP/start |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | R | 24.4% | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 111 | deep | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Athletics | R | 18.1% | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 109 | deep | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Brandon Woodruff | Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 25.3% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 75.50 | 24.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | R | 19.3% | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 111 | deep | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | L | 22.3% | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 79 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Brendan Beck | New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | R | 21.9% | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | full | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent_form_unavailable |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | L | 28.5% | 5.9 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 67.00 | 33.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | R | 28.0% | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Griffin Canning | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 21.1% | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 77 | short | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | L | 19.8% | 6.5 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 109 | deep | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 28.7% | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.9% |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | R | 18.9% | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 87 | normal | full | 25.00 | 75.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | R | 28.5% | 6.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 111 | deep | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kumar Rocker | Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | R | 22.0% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 79 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Shane Bieber | Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | R | 18.9% | 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 70 | short | full | 0.00 | 100.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Carson Palmquist | Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 22.9% | 2.0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 34 | short | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | Hunter Brown Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 13.3 | -4.2 | 23.8% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.3 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 18.5 | 22.0 | 3.5 | 18.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree |
| Drew Rasmussen | Drew Rasmussen Over | Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 20.4 | 2.9 | 16.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.89 <= 3 min |
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 20.2 | 2.7 | 15.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.4 | 109 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.66 <= 3 min |
| Jesus Luzardo | Jesus Luzardo Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 19.5 | 2.0 | 11.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Braxton Ashcraft Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 7.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shota Imanaga | Shota Imanaga Under | St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | 18.5 | 17.3 | -1.2 | 6.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Chris Sale | Chris Sale Over | New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | 18.5 | 19.6 | 1.1 | 5.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Over | Miami Marlins @ Athletics | 18.5 | 19.3 | 0.8 | 4.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.4 | 109 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Over | Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | 18.5 | 19.3 | 0.8 | 4.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | ⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -140, active roster BVP damage OPS 0.911/AVG 0.383 over 50 PA | K Prop | Robbie Ray Over | GIA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 6.4 | -140 | DK Over 4.5 -140 | exact | 42.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@YAN | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -139 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | best price | 26.9% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Hunter Brown Under | RAY@AST | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 5.2 | -158 | BetOnline Under 6.5 -152 | best price | 19.6% | ✓✓!!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats | K Prop | Hunter Greene Under | ORI@RED | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 5.3 | +109 | DK Under 6.5 +109 | exact | 17.9% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Hunter Brown Under | RAY@AST | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 13.3 | +118 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 | best price | 23.8% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Wacha Under | PHI@ROY | 8:11 PM | 6.5 | 5.2 | -159 | DK Under 6.5 -159 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -144 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Civale Over | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -152 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Logan Gilbert Over | JAY@MAR | 4:11 PM | 0.5 | 1.2 | -132 | DK Over 0.5 -132 | exact | 148.8% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Robbie Ray Over | GIA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -161 | DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact | 57.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-178); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Jack Flaherty Over | TIG@RAN | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -178 | DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact | 36.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Drew Rasmussen Under | RAY@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -124 | DK Under 1.5 -124 | exact | 30.1% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-186); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | GIA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -186 | DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact | 26.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Jack Flaherty Over | TIG@RAN | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -169 | DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Gilbert Over | JAY@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -121 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price | 46.7% | ✓✓✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -159 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Woodruff Under | BRE@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -167 | DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Robbie Ray Under | GIA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.6 | -115 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -110 | best price | 25.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-176); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Hunter Brown Under | RAY@AST | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -176 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -175 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jesus Luzardo Under | PHI@ROY | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -152 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -144 | DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -145 | DK Under 3.5 -145 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Canning Over | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -143 | Fanatics Over 2.5 -140 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 44.1% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@ROY | 8:11 PM | 6.5 | 8.9 | +119 | BetOnline Over 5.5 -143 | alt rescue | 37.1% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (8 books) | consensus 57% (8 books) | K Prop | Michael Wacha Over | PHI@ROY | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.8 | -108 | DK Over 4.5 -108 | exact | 29.4% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Civale Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.6 | +106 | FanDuel Under 3.5 +122 | best price | 25.0% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Kumar Rocker Over | TIG@RAN | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -158 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 | best price | 17.1% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Chris Sale Over | MET@BRA | 8:09 PM | 7.5 | 8.8 | -104 | FanDuel Over 7.5 -104 | best price | 16.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@NAT | 11:06 AM | 6.5 | 7.5 | +102 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -145 | alt rescue | 15.8% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Parker Messick Over | SOX@GUA | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.4 | -103 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +105 | best price | 14.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Leahy Under | CAR@CUB | 8:09 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | -147 | DK Under 4.5 -147 | exact | 13.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Logan Gilbert Over | JAY@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | +106 | BetOnline Over 5.5 +118 | best price | 12.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Drew Rasmussen Over | RAY@AST | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -145 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price | 10.1% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Woodruff Under | BRE@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -124 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -120 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Merrill Kelly Over | BRE@DIA | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -139 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -136 | best price | 8.7% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Bieber Under | JAY@MAR | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | +121 | BetOnline Under 5.5 -175 | alt rescue | 7.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sonny Gray Over | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | +100 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +106 | best price | 4.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -133 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 4.7% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Samuel Aldegheri Under | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | +122 | DK Under 3.5 +122 | exact | 3.1% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.6 | +106 | BetMGM Over 6.5 +110 | best price | 1.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Griffin Canning Under | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -150 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -150 | best price | 1.2% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Outs | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 18.5 | 22.0 | +108 | DK Over 18.5 +108 | exact | 18.8% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.89 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Drew Rasmussen Over | RAY@AST | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 20.4 | -144 | DK Over 17.5 -144 | exact | 16.5% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.66 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael Wacha Over | PHI@ROY | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 20.2 | -162 | Caesars Over 17.5 -150 | best price | 15.2% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.97 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@ROY | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.5 | -165 | DK Over 17.5 -165 | exact | 11.3% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@NAT | 11:06 AM | 17.5 | 18.9 | -143 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price | 7.8% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shota Imanaga Under | CAR@CUB | 8:09 PM | 18.5 | 17.3 | -172 | Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -170 | best price | 6.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Chris Sale Over | MET@BRA | 8:09 PM | 18.5 | 19.6 | +128 | BetMGM Over 18.5 +155 | best price | 5.9% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 18.5 | 19.3 | +119 | theScore Bet Over 17.5 -170 | alt rescue | 4.5% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Over | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 18.5 | 19.3 | +123 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +152 | best price | 4.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Robbie Ray Under | GIA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 6.5 | 3.7 | -106 | DK Under 6.5 -106 | exact | 43.1% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sean Manaea Under | MET@BRA | 8:09 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -121 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Braxton Ashcraft Under | PIR@NAT | 11:06 AM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -130 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | GIA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -104 | BetMGM Under 7.5 -150 | alt rescue | 4.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.3 | +102 | Bovada Direct Under 6.5 +105 | best price | 3.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Chris Sale Under | MET@BRA | 8:09 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -149 | DK Under 5.5 -149 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jesus Luzardo Under | PHI@ROY | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -119 | DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Merrill Kelly Under | BRE@DIA | 9:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | -130 | DK Under 6.5 -130 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Kumar Rocker Over | TIG@RAN | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -159 | DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact | 19.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Michael Wacha Over | PHI@ROY | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -104 | DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact | 14.0% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Shane Bieber Over | JAY@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -163 | DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact | 12.7% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@ROY | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -129 | DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact | 11.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Chris Sale Under | MET@BRA | 8:09 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -153 | DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact | 10.3% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Hunter Brown Under | RAY@AST | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -175 | DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact | 8.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Braxton Ashcraft Under | PIR@NAT | 11:06 AM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -208 | DK Under 1.5 -208 | exact | 7.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Sean Manaea Over | MET@BRA | 8:09 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +132 | DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact | 3.7% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Merrill Kelly Over | BRE@DIA | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.1 | +112 | DK Over 3.5 +112 | exact | 17.1% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Braxton Ashcraft Under | PIR@NAT | 11:06 AM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -115 | DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Civale Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -158 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | best price | 14.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Kumar Rocker Under | TIG@RAN | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -164 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Bieber Over | JAY@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -114 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Manaea Under | MET@BRA | 8:09 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -114 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Drew Rasmussen Over | RAY@AST | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -170 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price | 6.7% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Wacha Over | PHI@ROY | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -151 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -150 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tomoyuki Sugano Over | GIA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -121 | DK Over 3.5 -121 | exact | 2.9% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Chris Sale Under | MET@BRA | 8:09 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +128 | DK Under 1.5 +128 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Samuel Aldegheri Under | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -113 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Young Over | ORI@RED | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | -131 | DK Over 4.5 -131 | exact | 20.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Over | CAR@CUB | 8:09 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -146 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price | 11.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Flaherty Under | TIG@RAN | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -109 | BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Burke Under | SOX@GUA | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -108 | BetRivers Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Manaea Under | MET@BRA | 8:09 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -103 | DK Under 4.5 -103 | exact | 0.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script