| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 351 | 58% | +5.65u | 67 | 66% | +8.79u | 165 | 62% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 301 | 59% | +13.39u | 66 | 65% | +8.71u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 244 | 59% | +2.87u | 104 | 61% | +1.71u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 179 | 59% | -9.62u | 76 | 58% | -6.47u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 94 | 46% | -12.03u | 12 | 67% | +1.86u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | 74.5 | 83.5 | 72.0 | 6 | Changeup (66% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 37.1%, put-away 25.6%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | 72.8 | 73.7 | 79.0 | 7 | Sweeper (39% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 26.2%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.2 | 63.2 | 71.0 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (32% whiff, 59% usage) | Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox | 64.4 | 61.6 | 71.0 | 5 | Curveball (38% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | 62.6 | 47.2 | 80.0 | 6 | Changeup (35% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.255, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Miami Marlins | 57.4 | 60.0 | 56.0 | 6 | Changeup (43% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | 53.9 | 66.1 | 44.5 | 5 | Sweeper (44% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.5 | 53.6 | 54.0 | 7 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jose Cabrera | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | 51.6 | 49.0 | 51.5 | 6 | Sweeper (42% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 9.9%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | 50.8 | 39.9 | 61.5 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 49.6 | 42.2 | 56.0 | 5 | Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Athletics | 49.4 | 53.5 | 45.0 | 6 | Curveball (45% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | 47.4 | 59.0 | 38.5 | 7 | Curveball (42% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | 47.4 | 43.2 | 51.0 | 5 | Sweeper (30% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 47.2 | 53.3 | 41.5 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | 46.6 | 54.4 | 39.5 | 6 | Slider (41% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Luis Castillo | Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | 46.0 | 48.0 | 42.0 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 45% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 44.9 | 52.9 | 39.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | 43.8 | 47.3 | 38.0 | 5 | Curveball (36% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles | 39.9 | 48.7 | 27.5 | 5 | Sweeper (42% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 39.5 | 42.2 | 36.0 | 7 | Sweeper (24% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | 39.1 | 46.0 | 32.5 | 6 | Changeup (53% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | 38.3 | 36.0 | 42.5 | 6 | Changeup (35% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | 38.2 | 43.8 | 30.0 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mike Paredes | Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | 33.6 | 35.3 | 29.5 | 4 | Sweeper (23% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Cabrera | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 20.2% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Miami Marlins | R | 26.4% | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 77 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | R | 19.7% | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 65 | short | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 18.7% | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 99 | normal | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 20.9% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 80.00 | 20.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| David Peterson | Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 17.4% | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 65 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 18.9% | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 74 | short | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 20.9% | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 87 | normal | full | 27.50 | 72.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | R | 27.5% | 5.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 84 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | R | 16.8% | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 89 | normal | full | 32.50 | 67.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 25.4% | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 84 | short | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%, low-K contact opponent 18.6% |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox | L | 26.8% | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | R | 26.9% | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 101 | deep | full | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Athletics | R | 17.4% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 31.9% | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 82 | short | full | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Mike Paredes | Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | R | 16.2% | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 69 | short | full | 29.50 | 70.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Christian Scott | New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | R | 25.5% | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 79 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | R | 20.9% | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 82 | short | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | R | 18.1% | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 18.7% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Luis Castillo | Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 20.4% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 86 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 20.0% |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | R | 18.1% | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 102 | deep | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.3% |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | R | 14.8% | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | R | 37.8% | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 82 | short | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 25.6% | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | Luis Castillo Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 14.2 | -3.3 | 18.9% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.0 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Gerrit Cole | Gerrit Cole Under | Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 14.3 | -3.1 | 18.0% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.4 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Shohei Ohtani | Shohei Ohtani Over | San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 17.5 | 20.3 | 2.8 | 15.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.78 <= 3 min |
| Reid Detmers | Reid Detmers Over | Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 19.6 | 2.1 | 12.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.11 <= 3 min |
| Foster Griffin | Foster Griffin Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 8.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Nick Martinez | Nick Martinez Under | Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.5 | 3.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Dylan Cease | Dylan Cease Over | Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.4 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Gavin Williams | Gavin Williams Under | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 17.3 | -0.2 | 1.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 6.0 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Andre Pallante | Andre Pallante Under | St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 17.5 | -0.0 | 0.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.7 | 102 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | K Prop | Anthony Kay Under | SOX@GUA | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -154 | DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact | 23.2% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Gerrit Cole Under | TWI@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -105 | DK Under 5.5 -105 | exact | 19.0% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Luis Castillo Under | JAY@MAR | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.2 | -119 | Caesars Under 17.5 -117 | best price | 18.9% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Gerrit Cole Under | TWI@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 14.3 | -111 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +100 | best price | 18.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Feltner Under | GIA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 6.5 | 4.2 | -118 | DK Under 6.5 -118 | exact | 35.4% | ✓✓✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Mike Paredes Under | TWI@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -165 | DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact | 25.4% | ✓✓✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -143 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Tyler Phillips Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | +111 | DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Luis Castillo Under | JAY@MAR | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -122 | DK Under 5.5 -122 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Brady Singer Under | ORI@RED | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.6 | -149 | DK Under 3.5 -149 | exact | 25.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Christian Scott Under | MET@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -128 | DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Bennett Under | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -154 | DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Reid Detmers Under | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Foster Griffin Under | PIR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -112 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@MAR | 10:11 PM | 7.5 | 9.9 | -112 | FanDuel Over 7.5 -104 | best price | 32.4% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 47.8% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Gavin Williams Over | SOX@GUA | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 8.3 | +125 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -166 | alt rescue | 27.3% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jose Cabrera Over | BRE@DIA | 9:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -159 | DK Over 3.5 -159 | exact | 25.8% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Martinez Under | RAY@AST | 8:16 PM | 4.5 | 3.6 | -148 | DK Under 4.5 -148 | exact | 20.4% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@DIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -145 | DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact | 17.2% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Perkins Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -144 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 11.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Mike Paredes Under | TWI@YAN | 7:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.1 | -130 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -130 | best price | 11.4% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Foster Griffin Over | PIR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 6.5 | 7.2 | +110 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -170 | alt rescue | 11.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor Rogers Under | ORI@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -122 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 10.1% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Spencer Arrighetti Under | RAY@AST | 8:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -126 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 6.8% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael King Under | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | +104 | FanDuel Under 4.5 +106 | best price | 4.7% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +115 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | alt rescue | 3.5% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Luis Castillo Under | JAY@MAR | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | +114 | FanDuel Under 4.5 +116 | best price | 2.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Reid Detmers Over | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 7.5 | 7.5 | +122 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | alt rescue | 0.2% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Feltner Over | GIA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | +115 | DK Over 3.5 +115 | exact | 0.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.78 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shohei Ohtani Over | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 20.3 | -190 | DK Over 17.5 -190 | exact | 15.9% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.11 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Reid Detmers Over | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 17.5 | 19.6 | -105 | DK Over 17.5 -105 | exact | 12.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Foster Griffin Over | PIR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 17.5 | 19.0 | -145 | DK Over 17.5 -145 | exact | 8.8% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nick Martinez Under | RAY@AST | 8:16 PM | 17.5 | 17.0 | -130 | Caesars Under 17.5 -127 | best price | 3.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@MAR | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.7 | -134 | Caesars Over 17.5 -130 | best price | 1.2% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gavin Williams Under | SOX@GUA | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.3 | +115 | Fanatics Under 17.5 +130 | best price | 1.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Andre Pallante Under | CAR@CUB | 4:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.5 | -131 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -120 | best price | 0.2% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Foster Griffin Under | PIR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 3.9 | -102 | Fanatics Under 5.5 +100 | best price | 29.1% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Mitch Keller Under | PIR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 6.5 | 5.8 | -132 | DK Under 6.5 -132 | exact | 10.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Martinez Over | RAY@AST | 8:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -120 | DK Over 5.5 -120 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Gerrit Cole Over | TWI@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +112 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brady Singer Under | ORI@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -112 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Feltner Under | GIA@ROC | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.5 | -110 | DK Under 3.5 -110 | exact | 28.6% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Spencer Arrighetti Over | RAY@AST | 8:16 PM | 2.5 | 3.2 | -103 | DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Grant Holmes Under | MET@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -120 | DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Mitch Keller Under | PIR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -140 | Fanatics Under 3.5 -140 | best price | 14.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Harrison Over | BRE@DIA | 9:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -161 | DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jose Cabrera Under | BRE@DIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -129 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Michael King Over | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -145 | DK Over 2.5 -145 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Martinez Over | RAY@AST | 8:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -121 | Fanatics Over 2.5 -105 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shohei Ohtani Over | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -110 | DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Mike Paredes Under | TWI@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +115 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor Rogers Over | ORI@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -126 | DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jack Perkins Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -154 | DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Gerrit Cole Under | TWI@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -126 | DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Phillips Under | MAR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +119 | DK Under 2.5 +119 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dylan Cease Under | JAY@MAR | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +114 | DK Under 1.5 +114 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Luis Castillo Under | JAY@MAR | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -149 | DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Andre Pallante Over | CAR@CUB | 4:06 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -148 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -142 | best price | 26.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Bennett Over | SOX@ANG | 9:39 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | -132 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 20.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Mitch Keller Over | PIR@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 4.1 | -164 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | best price | 17.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brady Singer Over | ORI@RED | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -145 | DK Over 4.5 -145 | exact | 16.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Christian Scott Over | MET@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -122 | Fanatics Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 16.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shohei Ohtani Over | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.5 | -138 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | best price | 15.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grant Holmes Over | MET@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -141 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 12.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script