| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 344 | 58% | +3.55u | 64 | 67% | +9.98u | 161 | 61% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 298 | 58% | +11.48u | 66 | 64% | +7.21u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 236 | 59% | +0.43u | 104 | 58% | -3.65u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 173 | 58% | -9.98u | 76 | 57% | -8.09u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 94 | 46% | -12.03u | 12 | 67% | +1.86u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 86.8 | 92.7 | 93.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (42% whiff, 64% usage) | Savant whiff 38.2%, put-away 32.6%, xwOBA 0.228, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels | 72.0 | 63.1 | 89.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (33% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.237, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 69.3 | 71.5 | 72.5 | 3 | Slider (52% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 32.6%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | 62.5 | 61.6 | 66.0 | 4 | Changeup (36% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | 59.3 | 57.5 | 64.5 | 7 | Sweeper (40% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | 57.9 | 66.7 | 51.5 | 6 | Curveball (38% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | 55.5 | 70.8 | 38.5 | 4 | Changeup (40% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 32.3%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | 54.8 | 58.2 | 54.5 | 6 | Curveball (43% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Alan Rangel | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.6 | 42.7 | 72.5 | 4 | Changeup (42% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | 51.9 | 60.7 | 42.0 | 3 | Slider (40% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | 51.4 | 47.6 | 57.0 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Stephen Kolek | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | 48.2 | 39.9 | 55.5 | 6 | Slider (43% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Hurston Waldrep | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | 46.1 | 75.0 | 21.0 | 4 | Split-Finger (50% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 27.7%, xwOBA 0.373, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | 44.6 | 42.6 | 47.0 | 5 | Curveball (31% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | 44.1 | 42.6 | 45.0 | 7 | Curveball (32% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | 38.5 | 42.0 | 34.0 | 7 | 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins | 36.8 | 40.8 | 28.0 | 7 | Changeup (32% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Randy Vásquez | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 25.6 | 39.1 | 9.0 | 7 | 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurston Waldrep | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 22.6% | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | full | 21.00 | 79.00 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent_form_unavailable |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 21.2% | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 82 | short | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 31.7% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | R | 17.8% | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 94 | normal | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins | R | 18.1% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 79 | short | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | L | 18.6% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Stephen Kolek | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 17.9% | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 86 | short | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 18.8% |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | R | 22.6% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | R | 24.3% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | R | 20.8% | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 59 | short | full | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 37.8% | 7.0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 117 | deep | full | 93.50 | 6.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Alan Rangel | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 23.8% | 4.0 | - | 5.4 | 67 | short | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 22.1% | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 67 | short | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
| Randy Vásquez | San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 15.4% | 4.0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 67 | short | full | 9.00 | 91.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 32.4% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 89.00 | 11.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | R | 25.6% | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | L | 24.0% | 4.1 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 69 | short | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers | R | 25.0% | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 104 | deep | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Jacob Misiorowski Over | Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | 18.5 | 21.4 | 2.9 | 15.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 117 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.89 <= 3 min |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Nathan Eovaldi Over | Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers | 18.5 | 20.8 | 2.3 | 12.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.34 <= 3 min |
| Framber Valdez | Framber Valdez Under | Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers | 18.5 | 16.8 | -1.7 | 9.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Bryce Miller | Bryce Miller Over | Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 4.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Chase Burns | Chase Burns Over | Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 1.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | ⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -132 | K Prop | Bryce Miller Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 6.5 | 8.2 | -132 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -132 | best price | 26.2% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 6.5 | -120 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 43.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Jared Jones Over | PIR@PHI | 12:36 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -150 | DK Over 4.5 -150 | exact | 26.9% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matc… | K Prop | Nathan Eovaldi Over | TIG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 6.5 | 7.7 | -115 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -104 | best price | 18.8% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Ian Seymour Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 2.7 | -154 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price | 50.9% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Jared Jones Under | PIR@PHI | 12:36 PM | 5.5 | 3.8 | -156 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 30.9% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Alan Rangel Under | PIR@PHI | 12:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -163 | DK Under 5.5 -163 | exact | 25.4% | ✓✓✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Jacob Misiorowski Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -141 | DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact | 56.5% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Chase Burns Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -175 | DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact | 36.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -174 | DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Chase Burns Under | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.6 | -169 | DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact | 36.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-168); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob Misiorowski Under | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -168 | DK Under 1.5 -168 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Ian Seymour Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -118 | DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Alan Rangel Under | PIR@PHI | 12:36 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -109 | DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Jared Jones Under | PIR@PHI | 12:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -109 | DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Hurston Waldrep Over | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 6.8 | +101 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +110 | best price | 92.7% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.6% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Dustin May Over | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 6.4 | -118 | Fanatics Over 4.5 -105 | best price | 41.6% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Jacob Misiorowski Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 9.5 | 11.6 | +102 | FanDuel Over 9.5 +106 | best price | 21.8% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books) | K Prop | Ryan Gusto Under | MAR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 4.5 | 2.8 | -163 | DK Under 4.5 -163 | exact | 38.5% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Alan Rangel Over | PIR@PHI | 12:36 PM | 3.5 | 4.7 | -165 | DK Over 3.5 -165 | exact | 33.7% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Randy Vasquez Under | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | -164 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -155 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 7.5 | 8.8 | +114 | FanDuel Over 7.5 +118 | best price | 17.8% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -138 | DK Under 5.5 -138 | exact | 13.2% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Slade Cecconi Under | SOX@GUA | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -147 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -135 | best price | 5.9% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Stephen Kolek Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | -178 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -165 | best price | 5.1% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ian Seymour Over | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +116 | DK Over 4.5 +116 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Roki Sasaki Over | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +119 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -162 | alt rescue | 2.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.89 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jacob Misiorowski Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 18.5 | 21.4 | +136 | FanDuel Over 18.5 +140 | best price | 15.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.34 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nathan Eovaldi Over | TIG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 18.5 | 20.8 | +121 | DK Over 18.5 +121 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 18.5 | 16.8 | -179 | DK Under 18.5 -179 | exact | 9.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryce Miller Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -132 | DK Over 17.5 -132 | exact | 4.1% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Chase Burns Over | RED@BRE | 2:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.8 | -121 | DK Over 17.5 -121 | exact | 1.9% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Hits All | Randy Vasquez Over | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 7.0 | +114 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +115 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Dustin May Under | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -156 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 23.6% | ✓✓✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Davis Martin Over | SOX@GUA | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -101 | DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Lorenzen Over | MAR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.0 | -124 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -110 | best price | 7.7% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Slade Cecconi Under | SOX@GUA | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -125 | Fanatics Under 5.5 -110 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -112 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Stephen Kolek Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -151 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -140 | best price | 4.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nathan Eovaldi Over | TIG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +103 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Slade Cecconi Over | SOX@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -107 | DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact | 25.0% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Michael Lorenzen Under | MAR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | +101 | DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact | 18.9% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Jared Jones Under | PIR@PHI | 12:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | +104 | DK Under 1.5 +104 | exact | 12.8% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Alan Rangel Over | PIR@PHI | 12:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -108 | DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact | 9.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Davis Martin Under | SOX@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +106 | DK Under 1.5 +106 | exact | 1.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Davis Martin Under | SOX@GUA | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -132 | DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Lorenzen Under | MAR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -110 | DK Under 3.5 -110 | exact | 14.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Randy Vasquez Under | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -143 | Fanatics Under 3.5 -140 | best price | 8.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dustin May Under | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -145 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Miller Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -115 | DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Slade Cecconi Under | SOX@GUA | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -141 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nathan Eovaldi Under | TIG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -142 | DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Framber Valdez Under | TIG@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -134 | DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Stephen Kolek Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +101 | DK Under 2.5 +101 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Roki Sasaki Under | PAD@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -174 | DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Lorenzen Over | MAR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -167 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -150 | best price | 8.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Davis Martin Over | SOX@GUA | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -143 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -135 | best price | 0.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script