MLB Betting Analyzer — Full Audit

Thursday, July 02 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WRReview-only N
K Prop✅ TRUSTED34458%+3.55u6467%+9.98u16161%64
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED29858%+11.48u6664%+7.21u333%6
Run Line✅ TRUSTED13854%-3.08u0-+0.00u4163%1
Batter Walks👀 WATCH62772%-9.06u0-+0.00u580%134
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH23559%-0.21u10357%-4.29u1100%9
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH17259%-8.98u7557%-7.08u0-11
Batter Hits👀 WATCH3778%+3.90u0-+0.00u0-23
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH3155%+0.66u0-+0.00u0-37
F5 ML👀 WATCH2848%+4.54u0-+0.00u0-0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH922%-5.18u0-+0.00u0-0
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-0
NRFI👀 WATCH333%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
YRFI👀 WATCH2100%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH9345%-12.74u1164%+1.15u250%8
Total🔬 RESEARCH5038%-10.52u0-+0.00u1100%7
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH10%-1.00u0-+0.00u0-6
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED48450%-56.69u0-+0.00u7053%355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted4/4No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted4/4No blocker
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch3/5season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research2/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

18 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds86.892.793.554-Seam Fastball (42% whiff, 64% usage)Savant whiff 38.2%, put-away 32.6%, xwOBA 0.228, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce MillerSeattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels72.063.189.07Split-Finger (33% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.237, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Chase BurnsCincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers69.371.572.53Slider (52% whiff, 37% usage)Savant whiff 32.6%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Walbert UreñaLos Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners62.561.666.04Changeup (36% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ian SeymourTampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals59.357.564.57Sweeper (40% whiff, 23% usage)Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Nathan EovaldiTexas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers57.966.751.56Curveball (38% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jared JonesPittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies55.570.838.54Changeup (40% whiff, 18% usage)Savant whiff 32.3%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Davis MartinChicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians54.858.254.56Curveball (43% whiff, 13% usage)Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Alan RangelPhiladelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates54.642.772.54Changeup (42% whiff, 36% usage)Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres51.960.742.03Slider (40% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Dustin MaySt. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves51.447.657.06Sweeper (35% whiff, 20% usage)Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Stephen KolekKansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays48.239.955.56Slider (43% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hurston WaldrepAtlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals46.175.021.04Split-Finger (50% whiff, 27% usage)Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 27.7%, xwOBA 0.373, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Framber ValdezDetroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers44.642.647.05Curveball (31% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Slade CecconiCleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox44.142.645.07Curveball (32% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Ryan GustoMiami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies38.342.033.574-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael LorenzenColorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins36.840.828.07Changeup (32% whiff, 19% usage)Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Randy VásquezSan Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers25.639.19.074-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

18 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Hurston WaldrepAtlanta Braves vs St. Louis CardinalsR22.6%--5.896unknownfull21.0079.00season+savant+savant_quality+handrecent_form_unavailable
Davis MartinChicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansR21.2%4.95.85.682shortfull54.5045.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Chase BurnsCincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersR31.7%5.45.75.791normalfull72.5027.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.8%
Slade CecconiCleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxR17.8%5.65.35.494normalfull45.0055.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Michael LorenzenColorado Rockies vs Miami MarlinsR18.1%4.74.84.779shortfull28.0072.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start
Framber ValdezDetroit Tigers vs Texas RangersL18.6%5.65.65.694normalfull47.0053.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Stephen KolekKansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay RaysR17.9%5.15.85.686shortfull55.5044.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Walbert UreñaLos Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersR22.6%5.45.45.491normalfull66.0034.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresR24.3%5.15.15.186shortfull42.0058.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start
Ryan GustoMiami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesR20.8%3.53.74.559shortfull33.5066.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.5 IP/start
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsR37.8%7.06.26.3117deepfull93.506.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.8%
Alan RangelPhiladelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh PiratesR23.8%4.0-5.467shortfull72.5027.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.0 IP/start
Jared JonesPittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesR22.1%4.04.24.667shortfull38.5061.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.0 IP/start
Randy VásquezSan Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersR15.4%4.05.24.967shortfull9.0091.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Bryce MillerSeattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsR32.4%5.85.86.097normalfull89.0011.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Dustin MaySt. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta BravesR25.6%5.85.66.097normalfull57.0043.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Ian SeymourTampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City RoyalsL24.0%4.13.74.969shortfull64.5035.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.1 IP/start
Nathan EovaldiTexas Rangers vs Detroit TigersR25.0%6.26.36.3104deepfull51.5048.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.6%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

3/3 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Jacob MisiorowskiJacob Misiorowski OverCincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers18.521.42.915.6%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.3117season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.89 <= 3 min
Bryce MillerBryce Miller OverLos Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners17.518.20.74.1%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal6.097season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Chase BurnsChase Burns OverCincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers17.517.80.31.9%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.791season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

17 candidates evaluated
← Back to Picks
GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffChecks ✓!✗–Rec
► BEST PLAYS
A ⭐ TOP PICK⭐ Top Pick
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed
K PropWalbert Urena OverANG@MAR9:41 PM4.56.5-119BetOnline Over 4.5 -119 | best price43.5%BEST PLAY
A✅ Best Play
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed
K PropJacob Misiorowski OverRED@BRE2:11 PM9.511.5+104FanDuel Over 8.5 -154 | alt rescue21.5%BEST PLAY
► GOOD ADDS
B🔬 Research Note
Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matc…
K PropChase Burns OverRED@BRE2:11 PM6.58.8-158FanDuel Over 6.5 -148 | best price35.8%!GOOD ADD
B🔬 Research Note
Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matc…
K PropJared Jones OverPIR@PHI12:36 PM4.55.7-164BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 | best price26.8%!GOOD ADD
B🔬 Research Note
Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matc…
K PropNathan Eovaldi OverTIG@RAN8:06 PM6.57.7-118Fanatics Over 6.5 -110 | best price19.1%!GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)↘ Alt / Derisk
Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…
K PropDustin May OverCAR@BRA7:16 PM4.56.4-102Fanatics Over 4.5 +100 | best price41.5%ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)↘ Alt / Derisk
Books strongly against: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…
K PropBryce Miller OverANG@MAR9:41 PM6.58.2+104Fanatics Over 6.5 +105 | best price26.2%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 27.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropSlade Cecconi OverSOX@GUA6:41 PM3.54.5-159DK Over 3.5 -159 | exact27.4%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropFramber Valdez UnderTIG@RAN8:06 PM5.54.7-153FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price14.4%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropAlan Rangel OverPIR@PHI12:36 PM4.54.7+123DK Over 4.5 +123 | exact4.0%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropIan Seymour OverRAY@ROY7:41 PM4.54.7-105DK Over 4.5 -105 | exact4.0%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropStephen Kolek UnderRAY@ROY7:41 PM3.53.4-164DK Under 3.5 -164 | exact3.9%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.89 <= 3 min — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsJacob Misiorowski OverRED@BRE2:11 PM18.521.4+147Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +150 | best price15.6%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsBryce Miller OverANG@MAR9:41 PM17.518.2-134DK Over 17.5 -134 | exact4.1%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsChase Burns OverRED@BRE2:11 PM17.517.8-139Caesars Over 17.5 -137 | best price1.9%ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)◇ Monitor
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropRoki Sasaki OverPAD@DOD10:11 PM5.55.6+124FanDuel Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue2.2%MONITOR
B (Review)◇ Monitor
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropDavis Martin OverSOX@GUA6:41 PM4.54.5-119DK Over 4.5 -119 | exact0.6%MONITOR

✓ PASS   ! WARN   ✗ FAIL   – N/A  |  Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script