| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 339 | 58% | +5.02u | 60 | 68% | +10.46u | 159 | 62% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 293 | 58% | +11.37u | 65 | 63% | +6.43u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 227 | 59% | -1.00u | 98 | 58% | -3.08u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 162 | 60% | -5.01u | 67 | 61% | -1.98u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 93 | 45% | -12.74u | 11 | 64% | +1.15u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | 69.5 | 62.3 | 80.0 | 7 | Changeup (39% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.255, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 64.1 | 60.6 | 72.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals | 60.8 | 50.7 | 73.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 48% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 59.8 | 56.9 | 65.0 | 6 | Slider (38% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | 57.2 | 60.4 | 58.5 | 5 | Slider (42% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | 55.8 | 66.6 | 49.5 | 6 | Slider (42% whiff, 45% usage) | Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | 55.3 | 54.9 | 56.5 | 5 | Curveball (34% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | 54.9 | 61.2 | 50.0 | 5 | Changeup (39% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Braydon Fisher | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets | 54.3 | 57.4 | 53.0 | 4 | Slider (30% whiff, 50% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | 54.1 | 46.2 | 64.0 | 6 | Slider (26% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.8 | 57.9 | 53.0 | 5 | Slider (33% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | 52.8 | 55.6 | 52.5 | 6 | Curveball (32% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | 52.7 | 56.6 | 49.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | 50.5 | 59.2 | 46.5 | 4 | Changeup (36% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | 50.3 | 57.1 | 45.5 | 5 | Slider (36% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | 48.4 | 46.5 | 50.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 47.3 | 48.1 | 47.5 | 4 | Slider (38% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 42.6 | 44.3 | 38.0 | 5 | Changeup (40% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | 42.1 | 40.0 | 46.0 | 7 | Curveball (30% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 18.6%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Reynaldo López | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | 40.1 | 43.2 | 37.5 | 4 | Slider (30% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins | 36.4 | 45.6 | 23.5 | 6 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.368, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Schultz | Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 35.5 | 41.9 | 28.0 | 5 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | 34.6 | 35.6 | 31.5 | 8 | Cutter (22% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres | 34.4 | 36.8 | 30.5 | 7 | Slider (32% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | 31.1 | 36.0 | 27.0 | 7 | Changeup (28% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | 28.4 | 32.5 | 19.5 | 5 | Slider (29% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 18.2%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.376, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | R | 11.4% | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 89 | normal | full | 19.50 | 80.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 20.9% | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 96 | normal | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Reynaldo López | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 20.5% | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 34 | short | full | 37.50 | 62.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.0 IP/start |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals | L | 22.1% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 73.50 | 26.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres | R | 15.4% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 79 | short | full | 30.50 | 69.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Noah Schultz | Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 18.7% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 76 | short | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 19.9% | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | L | 25.4% | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 94 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins | L | 18.0% | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 96 | normal | full | 23.50 | 76.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | R | 19.3% | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 107 | deep | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | R | 28.2% | 5.8 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 16.6% | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%, low-K contact opponent 18.6% |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | R | 26.7% | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 23.2% | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 80 | short | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | R | 24.0% | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 89 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 20.4% | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | R | 20.3% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 26.7% | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 104 | deep | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 31.4% | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 80.00 | 20.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | R | 22.6% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 86 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.3% |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 19.3% | 4.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 72 | short | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3% |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | R | 14.7% | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 97 | normal | full | 27.00 | 73.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | L | 22.5% | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 77 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 25.2% | 5.8 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Braydon Fisher | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets | R | 17.7% | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 20 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.2 IP/start |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | L | 25.3% | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 69 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 20.2 | 2.7 | 15.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.66 <= 3 min |
| Freddy Peralta | Freddy Peralta Under | New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 15.2 | -2.3 | 13.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.3 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.30 <= 3 min |
| Max Meyer | Max Meyer Over | Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 18.8 | 1.3 | 7.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Payton Tolle | Payton Tolle Over | Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 18.8 | 1.3 | 7.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Taj Bradley | Taj Bradley Under | Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| MacKenzie Gore | MacKenzie Gore Under | Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Paul Skenes | Paul Skenes Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 3.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael McGreevy | Michael McGreevy Under | St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 2.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | ⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -147, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.000/AVG 0.286 over 14 PA | K Prop | Tatsuya Imai Over | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 7.6 | -147 | DK Over 5.5 -147 | exact | 38.0% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Troy Melton Over | TIG@YAN | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 5.6 | -115 | DK Over 4.5 -115 | exact | 23.6% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Reynaldo Lopez Under | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 2.4 | -139 | DK Under 3.5 -139 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.93) ✗… | K Prop | Will Warren Under | TIG@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 3.8 | +111 | DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact | 30.3% | ✓✓!!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Zack Wheeler Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.8 | -152 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -150 | best price | 20.1% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Max Meyer Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 6.5 | 4.3 | -160 | Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -145 | best price | 33.9% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Troy Melton Under | TIG@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -119 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Dean Kremer Under | SOX@ORI | 12:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -154 | DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-177); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Noah Schultz Over | SOX@ORI | 12:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -177 | DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact | 59.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-186); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Joey Cantillo Over | RAN@GUA | 1:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -186 | DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact | 56.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Troy Melton Over | TIG@YAN | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -126 | DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact | 37.8% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Dean Kremer Over | SOX@ORI | 12:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -130 | DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact | 35.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@CUB | 2:21 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -161 | DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact | 25.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@CUB | 2:21 PM | 3.5 | 1.9 | -119 | DK Under 3.5 -119 | exact | 45.7% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Paul Skenes Under | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.5 | -153 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Zac Gallen Over | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.5 | -155 | DK Over 2.5 -155 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Zack Wheeler Under | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -146 | DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | JT Ginn Under | DOD@ATH | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.4 | -151 | Fanatics Under 3.5 -150 | best price | 31.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Drohan Under | RED@BRE | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -154 | DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Colin Rea Under | PAD@CUB | 2:21 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -156 | DK Under 3.5 -156 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Shane McClanahan Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -135 | DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Andrew Abbott Over | RED@BRE | 8:11 PM | 3.5 | 5.2 | -167 | DK Over 3.5 -167 | exact | 49.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Joey Cantillo Over | RAN@GUA | 1:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -108 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +100 | best price | 19.5% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Dean Kremer Over | SOX@ORI | 12:36 PM | 5.5 | 7.2 | +103 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 31.7% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Seth Lugo Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.6 | +130 | BetOnline Under 4.5 -175 | alt rescue | 26.4% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | JT Ginn Over | DOD@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -115 | BetMGM Over 4.5 +105 | best price | 18.8% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zac Gallen Under | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | +105 | BetMGM Under 3.5 +110 | best price | 16.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Taj Bradley Over | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -138 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price | 11.5% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Colin Rea Under | PAD@CUB | 2:21 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | +107 | FanDuel Under 3.5 +120 | best price | 9.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Freeland Over | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -165 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -140 | best price | 8.3% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Alvarez Over | NAT@SOX | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -120 | BetMGM Over 4.5 +105 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Drohan Under | RED@BRE | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -144 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 7.9% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Payton Tolle Under | NAT@SOX | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -126 | BetRivers Under 5.5 -109 | best price | 6.0% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 7.5 | 7.8 | +114 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -165 | alt rescue | 4.5% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael McGreevy Over | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | +128 | FanDuel Over 3.5 +132 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trevor McDonald Under | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -140 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -120 | best price | 2.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.66 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zack Wheeler Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 20.2 | -186 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -186 | best price | 15.2% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.30 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@JAY | 3:08 PM | 17.5 | 15.2 | +110 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 13.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Max Meyer Over | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.8 | -137 | DK Over 17.5 -137 | exact | 7.5% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Payton Tolle Over | NAT@SOX | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 18.8 | -101 | DK Over 17.5 -101 | exact | 7.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Taj Bradley Under | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | -130 | DK Under 17.5 -130 | exact | 4.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | MacKenzie Gore Under | RAN@GUA | 1:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | -113 | Caesars Under 17.5 -108 | best price | 4.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Paul Skenes Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -168 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -162 | best price | 3.8% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael McGreevy Under | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | -128 | Caesars Under 17.5 -125 | best price | 2.2% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -106 | DK Under 5.5 -106 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Shane McClanahan Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -147 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael McGreevy Under | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | +107 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -160 | alt rescue | 10.9% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Andrew Abbott Under | RED@BRE | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -143 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Zac Gallen Over | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.1 | -104 | BetMGM Over 6.5 +100 | best price | 9.2% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Seth Lugo Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.0 | -120 | DK Under 6.5 -120 | exact | 7.7% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | JT Ginn Under | DOD@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -114 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@JAY | 3:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -133 | DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 15% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Freeland Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 7.5 | 7.2 | -151 | Bovada Direct Under 7.5 -140 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Will Warren Over | TIG@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +125 | DK Over 5.5 +125 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor McDonald Over | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -117 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Colin Rea Under | PAD@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -103 | DK Under 5.5 -103 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Will Warren Over | TIG@YAN | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -150 | DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact | 17.5% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Colin Rea Over | PAD@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -112 | DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact | 12.7% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Freddy Peralta Over | MET@JAY | 3:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -178 | DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact | 10.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | MacKenzie Gore Under | RAN@GUA | 1:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -173 | DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact | 3.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Max Meyer Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | +110 | DK Under 2.5 +110 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Seth Lugo Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -129 | DK Under 3.5 -129 | exact | 14.3% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Schultz Over | SOX@ORI | 12:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -128 | DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Will Warren Under | TIG@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -108 | DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Joey Cantillo Under | RAN@GUA | 1:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -155 | DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Abbott Over | RED@BRE | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -129 | DK Over 2.5 -129 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tatsuya Imai Under | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -168 | DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | MacKenzie Gore Under | RAN@GUA | 1:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -144 | DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Troy Melton Under | TIG@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +123 | DK Under 2.5 +123 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@JAY | 3:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -129 | DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor McDonald Under | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -102 | DK Under 2.5 -102 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dean Kremer Under | SOX@ORI | 12:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -129 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael McGreevy Under | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +104 | DK Under 2.5 +104 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Taj Bradley Under | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -144 | Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Freeland Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -112 | Fanatics Under 3.5 -110 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane McClanahan Over | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -117 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 18.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Over | PAD@CUB | 2:21 PM | 3.5 | 4.1 | -142 | DK Over 3.5 -142 | exact | 17.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Max Meyer Over | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.5 | +125 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -128 | alt rescue | 16.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Freddy Peralta Over | MET@JAY | 3:08 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -135 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -121 | best price | 15.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Schultz Over | SOX@ORI | 12:36 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -150 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -130 | best price | 13.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | MacKenzie Gore Over | RAN@GUA | 1:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -133 | DK Over 5.5 -133 | exact | 12.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script