| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 333 | 58% | +2.63u | 55 | 67% | +8.74u | 154 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 283 | 58% | +11.43u | 59 | 61% | +4.53u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 1 | 100% | +0.65u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 213 | 59% | -0.45u | 92 | 61% | +1.75u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 153 | 59% | -7.08u | 62 | 58% | -5.01u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 92 | 45% | -13.53u | 10 | 60% | +0.36u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | 67.9 | 63.4 | 78.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 67.9 | 71.4 | 71.5 | 3 | Changeup (46% whiff, 38% usage) | Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 26.3%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | 66.1 | 77.4 | 61.0 | 5 | Changeup (44% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 34.7%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | 61.3 | 65.4 | 61.0 | 5 | Changeup (49% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | 59.3 | 54.9 | 68.0 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 59.1 | 55.7 | 65.5 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | 57.5 | 58.5 | 62.5 | 6 | Curveball (42% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels | 57.0 | 52.8 | 64.0 | 5 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets | 56.7 | 58.1 | 57.0 | 3 | Split-Finger (39% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres | 56.7 | 69.5 | 46.5 | 5 | Slider (53% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 32.7%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | 56.5 | 71.6 | 44.5 | 5 | Curveball (46% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | 49.7 | 69.2 | 31.0 | 6 | Changeup (41% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | 48.5 | 54.5 | 42.5 | 5 | Curveball (41% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | 48.1 | 48.6 | 47.5 | 6 | Slider (36% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 47.4 | 47.7 | 44.5 | 5 | Changeup (42% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Connelly Early | Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals | 47.3 | 50.0 | 46.5 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (25% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | 47.3 | 59.8 | 36.5 | 6 | Changeup (41% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | 47.0 | 48.6 | 44.5 | 6 | Curveball (32% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | 46.9 | 44.5 | 51.0 | 5 | Changeup (33% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 46.7 | 55.1 | 38.0 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | 46.6 | 54.6 | 41.0 | 6 | Changeup (36% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mike Burrows | Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | 46.2 | 46.5 | 44.0 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins | 45.7 | 51.6 | 38.0 | 5 | Slider (27% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | 44.2 | 54.7 | 31.5 | 6 | Sweeper (43% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics | 39.4 | 34.1 | 46.0 | 7 | 4-Seam Fastball (21% whiff, 50% usage) | Savant whiff 17.6%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 37.6 | 31.7 | 40.5 | 5 | Changeup (28% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 17.3%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | 36.6 | 43.1 | 25.0 | 7 | Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Trey Gibson | Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | 36.5 | 45.2 | 26.5 | 6 | Curveball (29% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.362, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 35.7 | 43.4 | 26.5 | 4 | Slider (36% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.362, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 20.6% | 4.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 69 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 20.2% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Trey Gibson | Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | R | 20.2% | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 26.50 | 73.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Connelly Early | Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals | L | 24.2% | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres | L | 25.5% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 79 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 16.3% | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 69 | short | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 20.0% | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 72 | short | full | 26.50 | 73.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | R | 21.3% | 6.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 107 | deep | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tanner Gordon | Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins | R | 21.0% | 4.2 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 70 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | L | 27.3% | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 96 | normal | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Mike Burrows | Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | R | 17.2% | 4.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 74 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 21.9% | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 91 | normal | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | R | 24.0% | 4.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 77 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics | L | 16.6% | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 101 | deep | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | R | 26.6% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 24.7% | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 82 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | R | 29.2% | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 27.7% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.9% |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | R | 30.3% | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 92 | normal | full | 78.00 | 22.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 27.3% | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 101 | deep | full | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 20.0% | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 89 | normal | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | L | 22.3% | - | 5.7 | 5.7 | 96 | normal | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.2%, recent_form_unavailable |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 25.4% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 86 | short | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4% |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 25.8% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | L | 19.3% | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 65 | short | full | 25.00 | 75.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | R | 24.3% | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 80 | short | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 30.2% | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets | R | 23.6% | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 87 | normal | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | R | 22.4% | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 77 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 21.5 | 3.0 | 16.5% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | deep | 6.4 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Landen Roupp | Landen Roupp Under | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 16.2 | -1.3 | 7.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.3 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Justin Wrobleski | Justin Wrobleski Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics | 17.5 | 18.5 | 1.0 | 5.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Tanner Bibee | Tanner Bibee Over | Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 18.3 | 0.8 | 4.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | Kevin Gausman Under | New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Jacob deGrom | Jacob deGrom Over | Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.4 | 2.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Joe Ryan | Joe Ryan Over | Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.4 | 2.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Under | Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | 18.5 | 18.1 | -0.4 | 2.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Over | New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 1.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal Over | Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 9.7% | B | MONITOR | research | normal | 6.0 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 8.3% | B | MONITOR | research | normal | 6.0 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -168, lineup BVP K% 2.5% over 40 PA, lineup BVP damage OPS 1.284/AVG 0.460… | K Prop | JP Sears Over | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 3.5 | 4.8 | -168 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -155 | best price | 35.7% | ✓✓✓✓–✓ | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: juiced K over -157, expected IP 4.5 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Griffin Jax Over | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -157 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | best price | 22.6% | ✓✓✓✓–✓ | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: 9/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -137 | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 7.5 | 8.9 | -137 | FanDuel Over 7.5 -122 | best price | 18.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 21.5 | -133 | BetMGM Over 18.5 -110 | best price | 16.5% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Justin Wrobleski Under | DOD@ATH | 9:40 PM | 6.5 | 4.2 | -141 | DK Under 6.5 -141 | exact | 35.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Nolan McLean Under | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -137 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Martin Perez Under | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -146 | DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact | 23.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Erick Fedde Under | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -150 | DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Hits All | Matthew Boyd Under | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -125 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -118 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓✓!–! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 3.1 | -195 | DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact | 107.1% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Trey Gibson Over | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -175 | DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact | 42.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-194); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Jeffrey Springs Under | DOD@ATH | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 1.6 | -194 | DK Under 2.5 -194 | exact | 37.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Erick Fedde Over | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -174 | DK Over 1.5 -174 | exact | 34.1% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Martin Perez Over | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -128 | DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact | 31.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Walks | Tarik Skubal Under | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -193 | DK Under 1.5 -193 | exact | 27.0% | ✓✓!!–! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-179); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Mike Burrows Over | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -179 | DK Over 1.5 -179 | exact | 25.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-180); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Nolan McLean Over | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -180 | DK Over 1.5 -180 | exact | 25.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@DIA | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -170 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -165 | best price | 17.0% | ✓!!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Bryan Woo Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -107 | DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact | 53.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Erick Fedde Under | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 3.5 | 2.2 | -165 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -155 | best price | 37.1% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Under | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.6 | -159 | DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact | 36.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Justin Wrobleski Under | DOD@ATH | 9:40 PM | 3.5 | 2.5 | -156 | DK Under 3.5 -156 | exact | 28.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Jax Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -142 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -130 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!!–! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Joe Ryan Under | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -159 | DK Under 2.5 -159 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | JP Sears Under | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | +109 | DK Under 3.5 +109 | exact | 22.9% | ✓✓!!–! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Nolan McLean Under | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -123 | DK Under 2.5 -123 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@DIA | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -127 | DK Under 2.5 -127 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| ► SMALL PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A (Weak) | ◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B | Pitcher Walks | Tanner Gordon Over | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.3 | -225 | DK Over 0.5 -225 | exact | 150.5% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | SMALL PLAY |
| A (Weak) | ◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B | Pitcher Walks | JP Sears Over | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -147 | DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact | 42.6% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | SMALL PLAY |
| A (Weak) | ◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B | Pitcher Walks | Brandon Sproat Over | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -132 | DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact | 42.2% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | SMALL PLAY |
| A (Weak) | ◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B | Pitcher Walks | Eury Perez Over | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -118 | DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact | 28.4% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | SMALL PLAY |
| A (Weak) | ◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Sproat Over | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -159 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -145 | best price | 53.3% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | SMALL PLAY |
| A (Weak) | ◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B | Pitcher Earned R | Tarik Skubal Over | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -151 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price | 33.3% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | SMALL PLAY |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Jacob deGrom Over | RAN@GUA | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 8.2 | -119 | DK Over 6.5 -119 | exact | 25.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.7 | -113 | BetRivers Over 5.5 -112 | best price | 21.3% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (1 books) — posture note at C | Pitcher Walks | Connelly Early Over | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +109 | DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact | 23.3% | ✓!✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 45.4% (1 books) — posture note at C | Pitcher Walks | Matthew Boyd Over | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +106 | DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact | 23.2% | ✓!✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Pfaadt Under | GIA@DIA | 9:40 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -152 | DK Under 3.5 -152 | exact | 21.0% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Eury Perez Over | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | +127 | DK Over 5.5 +127 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Liberatore Under | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 3.7 | -162 | DK Under 4.5 -162 | exact | 17.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Joe Ryan Over | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.6 | -152 | BetRivers Over 6.5 -141 | best price | 16.5% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Erick Fedde Under | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -136 | DK Under 3.5 -136 | exact | 16.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tarik Skubal Over | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 7.5 | 8.7 | -110 | BetRivers Over 7.5 +102 | best price | 15.7% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Under | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 7.5 | 6.5 | -129 | DK Under 7.5 -129 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Sproat Over | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | -103 | DK Over 5.5 -103 | exact | 11.8% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Mike Burrows Under | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | +111 | FanDuel Under 4.5 +112 | best price | 11.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Cameron Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -158 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -132 | best price | 9.3% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trey Gibson Under | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -133 | DK Under 4.5 -133 | exact | 7.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Justin Wrobleski Under | DOD@ATH | 9:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | +110 | Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +120 | best price | 7.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Over | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | +101 | BetOnline Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryan Woo Under | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 7.5 | 7.2 | -120 | DK Under 7.5 -120 | exact | 4.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jeffrey Springs Under | DOD@ATH | 9:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -151 | DK Under 4.5 -151 | exact | 4.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Connelly Early Under | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | +107 | DK Under 5.5 +107 | exact | 3.7% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | -121 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 3.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -144 | DK Under 4.5 -144 | exact | 3.1% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Gordon Over | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | +123 | BetOnline Over 3.5 +130 | best price | 2.5% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Bibee Over | RAN@GUA | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +130 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue | 2.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Under | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -138 | DK Under 5.5 -138 | exact | 0.0% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@DIA | 9:40 PM | 17.5 | 16.2 | -139 | DK Under 17.5 -139 | exact | 7.4% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Justin Wrobleski Over | DOD@ATH | 9:40 PM | 17.5 | 18.5 | -135 | DK Over 17.5 -135 | exact | 5.9% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tanner Bibee Over | RAN@GUA | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.3 | -193 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -180 | best price | 4.8% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kevin Gausman Under | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | +102 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +120 | best price | 4.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jacob deGrom Over | RAN@GUA | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.9 | -187 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -140 | best price | 2.2% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Joe Ryan Over | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.9 | -190 | DK Over 17.5 -190 | exact | 2.2% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryan Woo Under | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 18.5 | 18.1 | -157 | DK Under 18.5 -157 | exact | 2.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Over | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 17.8 | -140 | DK Over 17.5 -140 | exact | 1.6% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Hits All | Mike Burrows Over | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | +101 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Cameron Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 5.7 | -147 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -135 | best price | 12.3% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Connelly Early Under | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -153 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -150 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -138 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kevin Gausman Over | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | +111 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cade Cavalli Under | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -120 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✓!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matthew Liberatore Over | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -112 | DK Over 5.5 -112 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | JP Sears Under | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | +118 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jeffrey Springs Over | DOD@ATH | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -101 | DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sanchez Under | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -107 | DK Under 5.5 -107 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Landen Roupp Over | GIA@DIA | 9:40 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +104 | DK Over 5.5 +104 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Bryan Woo Under | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -247 | DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact | 23.4% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Cristopher Sanchez Under | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -172 | DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact | 19.6% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Joe Ryan Under | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -140 | DK Under 1.5 -140 | exact | 19.6% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Tanner Bibee Over | RAN@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -129 | DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact | 15.2% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Walks | Cam Schlittler Under | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -140 | DK Under 1.5 -140 | exact | 14.9% | ✓!!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Griffin Jax Over | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +109 | DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -152 | DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jacob deGrom Under | RAN@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | +113 | DK Under 1.5 +113 | exact | 7.8% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cade Cavalli Under | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -123 | DK Under 1.5 -123 | exact | 7.0% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Kevin Gausman Over | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -139 | DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jose Soriano Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +110 | DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Justin Wrobleski Under | DOD@ATH | 9:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -134 | DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact | 4.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Matthew Liberatore Under | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -125 | DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact | 3.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Noah Cameron Over | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +112 | DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact | 2.5% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Mike Burrows Over | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -118 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob deGrom Over | RAN@GUA | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Jeffrey Springs Under | DOD@ATH | 9:40 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -133 | DK Under 3.5 -133 | exact | 17.1% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Cade Cavalli Under | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -133 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Martin Perez Under | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -129 | DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Boyd Under | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | +120 | DK Under 2.5 +120 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Cam Schlittler Under | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | +114 | DK Under 1.5 +114 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Jose Soriano Under | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Liberatore Over | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -135 | DK Over 2.5 -135 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Gordon Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -149 | DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Pfaadt Over | GIA@DIA | 9:40 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -154 | DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -136 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -135 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kevin Gausman Over | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -108 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Connelly Early Under | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -142 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eury Perez Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -111 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trey Gibson Under | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -115 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Bibee Under | RAN@GUA | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -151 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Cameron Under | RAY@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +110 | DK Under 2.5 +110 | exact | - | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Over | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -140 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -114 | best price | 14.7% | ✓✗✓✓–✓ | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Under | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -112 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -106 | best price | 8.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Martin Perez Over | CAR@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.7 | -145 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -134 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@DIA | 9:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | +106 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -175 | alt rescue | 5.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tarik Skubal Over | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 19.2 | -192 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -178 | best price | 9.7% | ✓✗✓✓–✓ | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cam Schlittler Over | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.9 | -167 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -140 | best price | 8.3% | ✓✗✓✓–✓ | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Rhett Lowder Over | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -148 | DK Over 2.5 -148 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!✓–✓ | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script