MLB Full Audit Monday, June 29 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	328	58%	+2.75u	55	69%	+10.92u	149	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	272	58%	+9.88u	52	62%	+4.26u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	2	50%	-0.35u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	0	-	+0.00u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	203	60%	+2.35u	89	63%	+4.43u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	145	60%	-3.82u	54	61%	-1.75u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	91	45%	-12.53u	9	67%	+1.36u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	1	0%	-1.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	9	44%	-2.12u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	1/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	1/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

26 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies	66.7	63.7	74.0	5	Curveball (41% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets	66.1	61.1	73.0	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees	64.0	63.9	68.0	5	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	60.3	49.8	68.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (37% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	60.1	58.7	66.5	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers	59.2	50.1	72.5	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres	58.6	61.9	58.0	5	Split-Finger (43% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals	57.9	53.6	66.5	6	Curveball (43% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins	55.7	51.6	61.0	7	Changeup (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Tyler Alexander	Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians	53.0	35.4	71.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Sullivan	Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins	52.5	25.0	70.0	5	Changeup (18% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 15.3%, put-away 10.7%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers	51.5	62.2	43.0	5	Sweeper (45% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays	50.1	49.5	51.0	5	Sweeper (34% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	50.0	48.1	52.5	6	Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels	49.8	43.0	56.0	6	Sweeper (26% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies	49.4	43.1	55.0	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates	48.3	48.1	46.5	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners	48.2	46.7	41.5	4	Split-Finger (39% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 13.0%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros	48.0	46.3	50.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.4	47.3	45.5	5	Slider (25% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Griffin Canning	San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs	44.6	55.1	32.5	7	Slider (40% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox	42.5	42.9	42.5	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	37.8	39.5	38.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox	34.9	27.6	39.0	6	Slider (19% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 15.6%, put-away 12.8%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	34.2	42.9	20.5	4	Curveball (36% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.374, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics	33.6	34.0	30.0	5	Cutter (24% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

26 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	L	18.1%	5.5	5.9	5.8	92	normal	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	25.0%	6.0	5.9	6.0	101	deep	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox	R	19.5%	5.8	5.9	5.9	97	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals	L	26.6%	5.7	5.5	5.5	96	normal	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres	L	22.3%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	R	25.6%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	18.8%	4.9	5.2	5.2	82	short	full	20.50	79.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	L	26.5%	5.7	5.9	6.0	96	normal	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Sullivan	Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins	L	17.8%	4.0	4.0	5.0	67	short	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Casey Mize	Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees	R	23.7%	5.1	5.3	5.2	86	short	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins	R	21.8%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners	R	20.2%	3.2	4.8	5.0	54	short	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.2 IP/start
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics	L	16.1%	5.5	4.9	5.0	92	normal	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies	R	18.9%	6.8	6.5	6.5	114	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	23.9%	5.1	5.0	5.3	86	short	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros	R	19.2%	6.0	6.2	6.1	101	deep	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	23.1%	4.6	4.8	5.3	77	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers	L	26.0%	5.7	5.8	5.8	96	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	23.4%	4.7	5.0	5.0	79	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	28.8%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	74.00	26.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Griffin Canning	San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs	R	21.8%	5.1	4.7	5.0	86	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Tyler Mahle	San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	23.3%	5.1	5.2	5.2	86	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5%
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels	R	21.8%	5.4	6.0	5.9	91	normal	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tyler Alexander	Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians	L	21.8%	1.2	1.0	4.1	20	short	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Trey Yesavage	Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets	R	21.7%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Miles Mikolas	Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox	R	12.9%	5.3	4.2	4.9	89	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Braxton Ashcraft	Braxton Ashcraft Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	19.5	2.0	11.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.98 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies	18.5	20.5	2.0	10.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.02 <= 3 min
Peter Lambert	Peter Lambert Under	Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros	17.5	16.3	-1.2	6.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Over	Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Parker Messick	Parker Messick Over	Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	18.5	1.0	5.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
George Kirby	George Kirby Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	18.5	1.0	5.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Ryan Weathers	Ryan Weathers Over	Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees	17.5	17.9	0.4	2.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Under	San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	17.1	-0.4	2.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Ranger Suarez	Ranger Suarez Over	Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

98 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► BEST PLAYS
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -145, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Shota Imanaga Over	PAD@CUB	8:06 PM	4.5	6.2	-145	BetRivers Over 4.5 -137 \| best price	37.5%	✓✓✓✓–✓	BEST PLAY
► GOOD ADDS
B	✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Eric Lauer Under	DOD@ATH	9:41 PM	5.5	3.7	-104	Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +105 \| best price	32.7%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Gage Jump Under	DOD@ATH	9:41 PM	5.5	4.1	-141	BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 \| best price	25.4%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Sandy Alcantara Under	MAR@ROC	8:41 PM	7.5	5.6	-131	Bovada Direct Under 7.5 -130 \| best price	25.3%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Sean Sullivan Under	MAR@ROC	8:41 PM	6.5	5.1	-156	Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -150 \| best price	21.5%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Ranger Suarez Under	NAT@SOX	7:11 PM	5.5	4.4	-107	DK Under 5.5 -107 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Peter Lambert Under	TWI@AST	8:11 PM	5.5	4.5	-135	DK Under 5.5 -135 \| exact	18.2%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	GIA@DIA	9:41 PM	5.5	4.5	+114	Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +115 \| best price	18.2%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Sean Manaea Under	MET@JAY	7:08 PM	5.5	4.6	-139	DK Under 5.5 -139 \| exact	16.4%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-173); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	George Kirby Over	ANG@MAR	9:41 PM	0.5	1.4	-173	DK Over 0.5 -173 \| exact	177.2%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Miles Mikolas Over	NAT@SOX	7:11 PM	0.5	0.9	-156	DK Over 0.5 -156 \| exact	81.4%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz Over	SOX@ORI	6:36 PM	1.5	2.1	-166	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 \| best price	43.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-178); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Sean Burke Over	SOX@ORI	6:36 PM	1.5	2.1	-178	DK Over 1.5 -178 \| exact	39.6%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Gage Jump Over	DOD@ATH	9:41 PM	1.5	2.1	-162	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 \| best price	38.6%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Eric Lauer Over	DOD@ATH	9:41 PM	1.5	1.9	-131	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 \| best price	29.2%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Peter Lambert Under	TWI@AST	8:11 PM	2.5	2.0	-196	DK Under 2.5 -196 \| exact	20.1%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	George Kirby Over	ANG@MAR	9:41 PM	1.5	2.2	-136	DK Over 1.5 -136 \| exact	46.7%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Sean Sullivan Under	MAR@ROC	8:41 PM	3.5	2.2	-120	BetMGM Under 3.5 -110 \| best price	37.1%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Braxton Ashcraft Under	PIR@PHI	6:41 PM	2.5	1.8	-121	DK Under 2.5 -121 \| exact	28.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Ranger Suarez Under	NAT@SOX	7:11 PM	2.5	1.8	-155	BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 \| best price	28.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Casey Mize Under	TIG@YAN	7:06 PM	2.5	1.9	-113	BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 \| best price	24.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Pitcher Earned R	Griffin Canning Under	PAD@CUB	8:06 PM	3.5	2.7	-117	BetMGM Under 3.5 -105 \| best price	22.9%	✓✓!!–!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Sandy Alcantara Under	MAR@ROC	8:41 PM	3.5	2.7	-146	BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 \| best price	22.9%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Eric Lauer Under	DOD@ATH	9:41 PM	3.5	2.8	-135	DK Under 3.5 -135 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
► SMALL PLAYS
A (Weak)	◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B	Pitcher Walks	Robert Gasser Over	RED@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	2.1	-159	DK Over 1.5 -159 \| exact	37.8%	✓✓!✓–✓	SMALL PLAY
A (Weak)	◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B	Pitcher Walks	Nick Lodolo Over	RED@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.9	-159	DK Over 1.5 -159 \| exact	27.0%	✓✓!✓–✓	SMALL PLAY
► ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (7 books) \| books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not…	K Prop	Ranger Suarez Over	NAT@SOX	7:11 PM	5.5	7.3	-116	theScore Bet Over 4.5 -115 \| alt rescue	33.1%	✓✓✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 46.7% (7 books) \| books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not…	K Prop	Sandy Alcantara Over	MAR@ROC	8:41 PM	4.5	5.6	-112	BetOnline Over 4.5 +100 \| best price	24.1%	✓✓✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (7 books) \| books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…	K Prop	Ryan Weathers Over	TIG@YAN	7:06 PM	6.5	7.7	-105	FanDuel Over 6.5 +110 \| best price	17.7%	✓✓✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…	Pitcher Earned R	Nick Lodolo Over	RED@BRE	7:41 PM	2.5	2.9	-109	BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 \| best price	16.0%	✓!✗✓–✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Sean Sullivan Under	MAR@ROC	8:41 PM	3.5	2.6	-130	BetOnline Under 3.5 -123 \| best price	26.9%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Ryan Johnson Under	ANG@MAR	9:41 PM	4.5	3.6	-134	DK Under 4.5 -134 \| exact	19.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Zebby Matthews Over	TWI@AST	8:11 PM	4.5	5.4	-153	BetOnline Over 4.5 -149 \| best price	19.0%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Casey Mize Over	TIG@YAN	7:06 PM	5.5	6.2	-101	Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 \| best price	13.6%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Trey Yesavage Under	MET@JAY	7:08 PM	6.5	5.7	-156	DK Under 6.5 -156 \| exact	13.0%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Shane Baz Under	SOX@ORI	6:36 PM	5.5	4.8	-136	FanDuel Under 5.5 -134 \| best price	11.9%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Robert Gasser Under	RED@BRE	7:41 PM	5.5	4.9	-109	FanDuel Under 5.5 -102 \| best price	11.0%	✓✗✓!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Tyler Mahle Over	GIA@DIA	9:41 PM	3.5	3.9	-152	BetOnline Over 3.5 -149 \| best price	10.6%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sean Manaea Over	MET@JAY	7:08 PM	4.5	4.9	+122	BetMGM Over 4.5 +125 \| best price	9.4%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Sean Burke Over	SOX@ORI	6:36 PM	5.5	5.9	-107	BetRivers Over 5.5 +102 \| best price	6.6%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Eric Lauer Over	DOD@ATH	9:41 PM	3.5	3.7	-150	BetOnline Over 3.5 -143 \| best price	6.4%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	GIA@DIA	9:41 PM	4.5	4.2	+114	BetRivers Under 4.5 +116 \| best price	5.5%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft Over	PIR@PHI	6:41 PM	6.5	6.8	+110	BetRivers Over 5.5 -162 \| alt rescue	5.1%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Parker Messick Over	RAN@GUA	7:11 PM	6.5	6.8	+117	FanDuel Over 6.5 +120 \| best price	5.1%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Aaron Nola Over	PIR@PHI	6:41 PM	5.5	5.8	-125	BetRivers Over 5.5 -113 \| best price	4.6%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Gage Jump Over	DOD@ATH	9:41 PM	5.5	5.7	+116	FanDuel Over 4.5 -170 \| alt rescue	2.8%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Nick Lodolo Over	RED@BRE	7:41 PM	4.5	4.6	-117	BetOnline Over 4.5 -108 \| best price	1.9%	✓✗✗✓–✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	George Kirby Over	ANG@MAR	9:41 PM	6.5	6.6	-114	theScore Bet Over 5.5 -115 \| alt rescue	0.9%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.98 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Braxton Ashcraft Over	PIR@PHI	6:41 PM	17.5	19.5	-140	BetOnline Over 17.5 -140 \| best price	11.3%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.02 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Sandy Alcantara Over	MAR@ROC	8:41 PM	18.5	20.5	+128	BetMGM Over 18.5 +140 \| best price	10.9%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Peter Lambert Under	TWI@AST	8:11 PM	17.5	16.3	-115	BetOnline Under 17.5 -110 \| best price	6.6%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Zebby Matthews Over	TWI@AST	8:11 PM	17.5	18.6	-108	FanDuel Over 17.5 -108 \| best price	6.2%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Parker Messick Over	RAN@GUA	7:11 PM	17.5	18.5	-164	BetOnline Over 17.5 -155 \| best price	5.9%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	George Kirby Over	ANG@MAR	9:41 PM	17.5	18.5	-199	FanDuel Over 17.5 -194 \| best price	5.8%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Ryan Weathers Over	TIG@YAN	7:06 PM	17.5	17.9	-132	BetMGM Over 17.5 -115 \| best price	2.5%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Shota Imanaga Under	PAD@CUB	8:06 PM	17.5	17.1	-109	DK Under 17.5 -109 \| exact	2.0%	✓✗!!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	GIA@DIA	9:41 PM	17.5	17.2	+109	BetMGM Under 17.5 +125 \| best price	1.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Shane Baz Under	SOX@ORI	6:36 PM	17.5	17.2	+104	BetMGM Under 17.5 +125 \| best price	1.6%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Ranger Suarez Over	NAT@SOX	7:11 PM	17.5	17.6	-148	BetOnline Over 17.5 -145 \| best price	0.7%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) \| consensus 67% (4 books)	Pitcher Hits All	Shota Imanaga Under	PAD@CUB	8:06 PM	5.5	4.0	+101	DK Under 5.5 +101 \| exact	27.3%	✓✓✗!–!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Hits All	Miles Mikolas Under	NAT@SOX	7:11 PM	5.5	4.7	-108	BetMGM Under 5.5 +115 \| best price	14.5%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) \| books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Hits All	George Kirby Over	ANG@MAR	9:41 PM	5.5	6.3	+121	BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 \| alt rescue	14.5%	✓!✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Braxton Ashcraft Under	PIR@PHI	6:41 PM	5.5	5.1	-131	DK Under 5.5 -131 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Zebby Matthews Over	TWI@AST	8:11 PM	5.5	5.9	-131	BetMGM Over 5.5 -115 \| best price	7.3%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Shane Baz Over	SOX@ORI	6:36 PM	5.5	5.8	-104	Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +100 \| best price	5.5%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Tyler Mahle Under	GIA@DIA	9:41 PM	5.5	5.3	-166	BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 \| best price	3.6%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Aaron Nola Under	PIR@PHI	6:41 PM	5.5	5.4	-115	DK Under 5.5 -115 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Nick Lodolo Over	RED@BRE	7:41 PM	5.5	5.6	+107	DK Over 5.5 +107 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗✗✓–✓	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Weathers Over	TIG@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.8	-113	DK Over 1.5 -113 \| exact	20.6%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Braxton Ashcraft Under	PIR@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.3	-179	theScore Bet Under 1.5 -175 \| best price	13.8%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Aaron Nola Over	PIR@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-102	DK Over 1.5 -102 \| exact	9.7%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Johnson Over	ANG@MAR	9:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-155	DK Over 1.5 -155 \| exact	9.1%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Sean Sullivan Over	MAR@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-112	DK Over 1.5 -112 \| exact	8.9%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Casey Mize Over	TIG@YAN	7:06 PM	1.5	1.6	-101	DK Over 1.5 -101 \| exact	7.5%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Trey Yesavage Over	MET@JAY	7:08 PM	2.5	2.7	+126	DK Over 2.5 +126 \| exact	7.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Zebby Matthews Over	TWI@AST	8:11 PM	1.5	1.6	-108	DK Over 1.5 -108 \| exact	6.4%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Griffin Canning Over	PAD@CUB	8:06 PM	2.5	2.6	+126	DK Over 2.5 +126 \| exact	5.7%	✓✗✗✓–✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Ranger Suarez Over	NAT@SOX	7:11 PM	1.5	1.5	+126	DK Over 1.5 +126 \| exact	2.8%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Sean Manaea Over	MET@JAY	7:08 PM	1.5	1.5	+105	DK Over 1.5 +105 \| exact	1.1%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Sandy Alcantara Under	MAR@ROC	8:41 PM	1.5	1.5	-169	theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 \| best price	0.8%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Shota Imanaga Over	PAD@CUB	8:06 PM	1.5	1.5	+126	DK Over 1.5 +126 \| exact	0.4%	✓✗✗✓–✓	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Shane Baz Over	SOX@ORI	6:36 PM	2.5	2.9	-117	BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 \| best price	16.0%	✓!✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Zebby Matthews Over	TWI@AST	8:11 PM	2.5	2.9	-135	BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 \| best price	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Gage Jump Under	DOD@ATH	9:41 PM	2.5	2.1	+112	DK Under 2.5 +112 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Sean Burke Under	SOX@ORI	6:36 PM	2.5	2.2	-114	BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 \| best price	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Sean Manaea Under	MET@JAY	7:08 PM	2.5	2.2	-138	DK Under 2.5 -138 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under	Pitcher Earned R	Robert Gasser Under	RED@BRE	7:41 PM	2.5	2.2	-147	DK Under 2.5 -147 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Ryan Weathers Under	TIG@YAN	7:06 PM	2.5	2.3	-154	DK Under 2.5 -154 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Tyler Mahle Over	GIA@DIA	9:41 PM	2.5	2.7	-120	BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 \| best price	8.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Aaron Nola Under	PIR@PHI	6:41 PM	2.5	2.4	+106	DK Under 2.5 +106 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Trey Yesavage Under	MET@JAY	7:08 PM	2.5	2.4	-121	DK Under 2.5 -121 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Miles Mikolas Under	NAT@SOX	7:11 PM	2.5	2.4	-129	BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Shota Imanaga Under	PAD@CUB	8:06 PM	2.5	2.4	+121	BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 \| alt rescue	4.0%	✓✗✗!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Peter Lambert Under	TWI@AST	8:11 PM	2.5	2.4	-127	DK Under 2.5 -127 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	GIA@DIA	9:41 PM	2.5	2.4	-107	DK Under 2.5 -107 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Ryan Johnson Under	ANG@MAR	9:41 PM	2.5	2.4	-109	DK Under 2.5 -109 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Peter Lambert Over	TWI@AST	8:11 PM	4.5	5.2	-138	DK Over 4.5 -138 \| exact	15.3%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Griffin Canning Over	PAD@CUB	8:06 PM	4.5	4.6	+123	theScore Bet Over 2.5 +125 \| alt rescue	3.0%	✓✗✓✓–✓	MONITOR

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script