| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 328 | 58% | +2.75u | 55 | 69% | +10.92u | 149 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 272 | 58% | +9.88u | 52 | 62% | +4.26u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 2 | 50% | -0.35u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 203 | 60% | +2.35u | 89 | 63% | +4.43u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 145 | 60% | -3.82u | 54 | 61% | -1.75u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 91 | 45% | -12.53u | 9 | 67% | +1.36u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 9 | 44% | -2.12u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 4/4 | No blocker |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 1/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 1/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | 66.7 | 63.7 | 74.0 | 5 | Curveball (41% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.267, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets | 66.1 | 61.1 | 73.0 | 3 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | 64.0 | 63.9 | 68.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (34% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 60.3 | 49.8 | 68.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (37% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | 60.1 | 58.7 | 66.5 | 6 | Changeup (40% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.2 | 50.1 | 72.5 | 5 | Curveball (29% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres | 58.6 | 61.9 | 58.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (43% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals | 57.9 | 53.6 | 66.5 | 6 | Curveball (43% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | 55.7 | 51.6 | 61.0 | 7 | Changeup (40% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | 53.0 | 35.4 | 71.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | 51.5 | 62.2 | 43.0 | 5 | Sweeper (45% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 23.4%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | 50.1 | 49.5 | 51.0 | 5 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | 50.0 | 48.1 | 52.5 | 6 | Slider (32% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels | 49.8 | 43.0 | 56.0 | 6 | Sweeper (26% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | 49.4 | 43.1 | 55.0 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.3 | 48.1 | 46.5 | 6 | Curveball (36% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | 48.2 | 46.7 | 41.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (39% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 13.0%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | 48.0 | 46.3 | 50.0 | 6 | Slider (39% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.4 | 47.3 | 45.5 | 5 | Slider (25% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 19.9%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | 42.5 | 42.9 | 42.5 | 5 | Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | 37.8 | 39.5 | 38.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | 34.9 | 27.6 | 39.0 | 6 | Slider (19% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 15.6%, put-away 12.8%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 34.2 | 42.9 | 20.5 | 4 | Curveball (36% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.374, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics | 33.6 | 34.0 | 30.0 | 5 | Cutter (24% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | L | 18.1% | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 25.0% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | R | 19.5% | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 97 | normal | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals | L | 26.6% | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 96 | normal | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres | L | 22.3% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 89 | normal | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 25.6% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 89 | normal | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 18.8% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 20.50 | 79.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | L | 26.5% | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 96 | normal | full | 66.50 | 33.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | R | 23.7% | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins | R | 21.8% | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | R | 20.2% | 3.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 54 | short | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.2 IP/start |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics | L | 16.1% | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 92 | normal | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | R | 18.9% | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 114 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 23.9% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 86 | short | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | R | 19.2% | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 101 | deep | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 23.1% | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 77 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.9% |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | L | 26.0% | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 96 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 23.4% | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 79 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 28.8% | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 74.00 | 26.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 23.3% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 21.8% | 5.4 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 91 | normal | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 21.8% | 1.2 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 20 | short | full | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets | R | 21.7% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 73.00 | 27.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | R | 12.9% | 5.3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 89 | normal | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Over | Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 20.5 | 3.0 | 17.3% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | deep | 6.5 | 114 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Braxton Ashcraft Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 19.5 | 2.0 | 11.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.98 <= 3 min |
| Parker Messick | Parker Messick Over | Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians | 17.5 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 8.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Over | Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 18.5 | 1.0 | 5.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Zebby Matthews | Zebby Matthews Over | Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 18.3 | 0.8 | 4.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shane Baz | Shane Baz Under | Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | 17.5 | 16.8 | -0.7 | 3.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Ryan Weathers | Ryan Weathers Over | Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.4 | 2.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shota Imanaga | Shota Imanaga Under | San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 17.1 | -0.4 | 2.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.3 | 1.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Ranger Suarez | Ranger Suarez Over | Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 0.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A ⭐ TOP PICK | ⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Griffin Canning Over | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 3.5 | 5.2 | -129 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -127 | best price | 48.6% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -155, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Sean Manaea Over | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 3.5 | 4.9 | -155 | DK Over 3.5 -155 | exact | 39.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -162 | K Prop | Gage Jump Over | DOD@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | -162 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -150 | best price | 25.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -162 | DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact | 22.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Outs | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 17.5 | 20.5 | -141 | DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact | 17.3% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Eric Lauer Under | DOD@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 3.7 | +107 | DK Under 5.5 +107 | exact | 32.7% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Shota Imanaga Under | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 3.9 | +107 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +110 | best price | 29.1% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Casey Mize Under | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -163 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Gage Jump Under | DOD@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -155 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price | 25.4% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 7.5 | 5.6 | -147 | DK Under 7.5 -147 | exact | 25.3% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Sean Sullivan Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 6.5 | 5.2 | -146 | DK Under 6.5 -146 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Ranger Suarez Under | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -103 | DK Under 5.5 -103 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | +111 | DK Under 5.5 +111 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Weathers Under | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -147 | DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Sean Manaea Under | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -135 | DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Parker Messick Over | RAN@GUA | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -155 | DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact | 33.2% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | George Kirby Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -135 | DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Sullivan Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.3 | -147 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -120 | best price | 34.3% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Braxton Ashcraft Under | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -144 | DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Ranger Suarez Under | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -153 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Casey Mize Under | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -125 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Parker Messick Under | RAN@GUA | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -172 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | -118 | DK Under 3.5 -118 | exact | 22.9% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Canning Under | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | -109 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -105 | best price | 22.9% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -126 | DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Eric Lauer Under | DOD@ATH | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -135 | DK Under 3.5 -135 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.4% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Ranger Suarez Over | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 7.2 | -114 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -102 | best price | 31.3% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Lodolo Over | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -111 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Sullivan Under | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.7 | -144 | DK Under 3.5 -144 | exact | 22.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Johnson Under | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.6 | -152 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 20.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | +102 | DK Over 4.5 +102 | exact | 18.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Eric Lauer Under | DOD@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.7 | -173 | BetOnline Under 4.5 -172 | best price | 17.1% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Weathers Over | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 6.5 | 7.5 | +104 | BetRivers Over 6.5 +108 | best price | 16.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Mahle Under | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | -165 | BetRivers Under 4.5 -159 | best price | 14.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Casey Mize Over | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | +117 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +123 | best price | 13.9% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Baz Under | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -134 | BetOnline Under 5.5 -127 | best price | 12.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zebby Matthews Under | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -161 | BetOnline Under 5.5 -159 | best price | 11.0% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Peter Lambert Under | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -165 | DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact | 9.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Nola Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -121 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -115 | best price | 7.8% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.0 | +123 | BetRivers Over 5.5 -162 | alt rescue | 7.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robert Gasser Under | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -143 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -122 | best price | 6.8% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Burke Over | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -101 | DK Over 5.5 -101 | exact | 6.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Lodolo Over | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | -113 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 1.5% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | George Kirby Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.6 | -122 | theScore Bet Over 5.5 -115 | alt rescue | 0.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Parker Messick Under | RAN@GUA | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | -139 | BetOnline Under 6.5 -137 | best price | 0.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.98 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 19.5 | -133 | DK Over 17.5 -133 | exact | 11.3% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Parker Messick Over | RAN@GUA | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.9 | -154 | DK Over 17.5 -154 | exact | 8.2% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | George Kirby Over | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.5 | -198 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -190 | best price | 5.8% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.3 | -106 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -105 | best price | 4.4% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shane Baz Under | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 17.5 | 16.8 | +104 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +115 | best price | 3.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ryan Weathers Over | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.9 | -148 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -135 | best price | 2.5% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shota Imanaga Under | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.1 | -109 | DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact | 2.0% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | +112 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +125 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ranger Suarez Over | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.6 | -158 | DK Over 17.5 -158 | exact | 0.7% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Hits All | Miles Mikolas Under | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -108 | DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Zebby Matthews Over | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -131 | DK Over 5.5 -131 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Braxton Ashcraft Under | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -151 | DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Baz Over | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | +102 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Nola Under | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -129 | DK Under 5.5 -129 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Lodolo Under | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | -130 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -118 | best price | - | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Over | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -105 | DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Burke Under | SOX@ORI | 6:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -111 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Gage Jump Under | DOD@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | +104 | DK Under 2.5 +104 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Manaea Under | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -133 | DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Robert Gasser Under | RED@BRE | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -163 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Weathers Under | TIG@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -151 | DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Mahle Over | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -112 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Nola Under | PIR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -120 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trey Yesavage Under | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -113 | DK Under 2.5 -113 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Miles Mikolas Under | NAT@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -129 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shota Imanaga Under | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +117 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -140 | alt rescue | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Peter Lambert Under | TWI@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -114 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | GIA@DIA | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -110 | DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Johnson Under | ANG@MAR | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -109 | DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Over | PAD@CUB | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 6.2 | +121 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -148 | alt rescue | 13.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trey Yesavage Over | MET@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -157 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -144 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script