MLB Full Audit Sunday, June 28 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	322	57%	+0.39u	53	64%	+6.69u	146	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	264	57%	+5.95u	47	55%	-1.05u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	4	75%	+1.03u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	67	78%	+4.94u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	199	59%	+1.53u	95	61%	+2.04u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	141	60%	-4.74u	53	60%	-2.50u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	88	45%	-11.25u	6	83%	+2.64u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	1	0%	-1.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	17	53%	-1.34u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers	69.8	59.9	84.0	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.247, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	67.4	71.0	66.0	4	Sweeper (49% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 32.3%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Brandon Woodruff	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	60.9	52.1	73.5	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants	60.7	64.4	62.0	4	Slider (39% whiff, 41% usage)	Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks	59.8	55.3	69.5	6	Changeup (44% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	56.5	64.2	51.0	4	Slider (40% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	55.9	61.4	54.5	5	Changeup (36% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals	53.6	56.0	52.5	4	Curveball (42% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ryan Rolison	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	53.3	51.5	60.5	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners	53.2	66.9	42.5	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 23.2%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals	52.1	57.1	46.5	5	Curveball (45% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox	50.2	51.0	48.5	5	Slider (35% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	48.6	43.8	55.0	6	Sweeper (40% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	48.3	54.5	40.5	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians	45.7	50.9	42.0	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies	45.0	42.6	46.0	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	45.0	49.8	40.0	5	Slider (39% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	44.7	52.1	40.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	44.6	52.3	39.0	5	Slider (36% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	39.4	46.7	28.5	5	Sweeper (39% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.358, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	39.4	41.6	36.5	7	Sweeper (22% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals	38.6	43.8	31.0	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins	38.2	47.9	29.5	6	Changeup (53% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Aaron Civale	Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	36.8	38.9	30.5	6	Cutter (26% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sam Aldegheri	Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics	36.6	33.9	37.0	5	Changeup (31% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins	34.4	45.3	22.5	6	Changeup (42% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.370, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cionel Pérez	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	29.7	42.5	16.5	4	Slurve (29% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zack Littell	Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles	24.5	29.7	14.0	5	Slider (20% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 16.0%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.387, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays	24.2	38.1	6.5	6	Slider (32% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.402, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers	11.5	17.3	0.0	5	Changeup (43% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 14.3%, put-away 5.0%, xwOBA 0.655, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	12.5%	5.4	5.8	5.7	91	normal	full	6.50	93.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%, low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Aaron Civale	Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	R	15.8%	4.2	4.8	4.7	70	short	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants	L	28.5%	5.5	6.0	6.0	92	normal	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals	R	25.1%	6.0	5.6	6.0	101	deep	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	R	22.3%	6.4	5.5	5.6	107	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Ryan Rolison	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	27.0%	1.1	1.3	4.5	18	short	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals	L	19.6%	4.8	5.0	4.9	80	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	19.7%	5.4	4.9	5.0	91	normal	full	28.50	71.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners	R	27.0%	5.4	6.0	6.0	91	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins	R	18.5%	5.3	4.7	4.8	89	normal	full	29.50	70.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jack Flaherty	Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	R	26.7%	4.3	4.4	4.4	72	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers	R	28.6%	4.6	4.8	5.2	77	short	full	84.00	16.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Luinder Avila	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.2%	4.6	4.1	4.7	77	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Sam Aldegheri	Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics	L	18.7%	3.7	4.2	4.8	62	short	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	R	25.7%	4.3	4.8	4.7	72	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	19.0%	4.8	4.7	5.2	80	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Brandon Woodruff	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	R	24.7%	5.0	5.1	5.3	84	short	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies	L	21.6%	5.2	5.1	5.1	87	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cionel Pérez	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	20.4%	1.6	-	4.9	27	short	full	16.50	83.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.6 IP/start
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	L	24.9%	5.6	5.2	5.3	94	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	L	28.3%	5.9	5.8	6.0	99	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	R	18.4%	4.7	5.5	5.4	79	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	17.6%	5.9	5.8	5.8	99	normal	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Robbie Ray	San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	L	22.4%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians	R	22.7%	5.2	5.7	5.6	87	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins	R	18.5%	5.0	5.1	5.1	84	short	full	22.50	77.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	29.1%	6.2	5.7	6.0	104	deep	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	20.9%	4.7	4.7	4.7	79	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers	R	22.0%	-	3.7	5.5	93	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 3.7 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Zack Littell	Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles	R	15.5%	4.2	4.7	4.6	70	short	full	14.00	86.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

5/5 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Mitch Keller	Mitch Keller Under	Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	14.2	-3.3	18.9%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.4	79	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Brady Singer	Brady Singer Under	Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	14.3	-3.2	18.4%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	normal	5.0	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Merrill Kelly	Merrill Kelly Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	14.9	-2.6	15.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.63 <= 3 min
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	19.9	2.4	13.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.41 <= 3 min
Kyle Bradish	Kyle Bradish Over	Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

36 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► BEST PLAYS
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: top-six opp K% 18.6%, full-lineup opp K% 18.7%, juiced K over -158, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Kumar Rocker Over	RAN@JAY	1:38 PM	3.5	4.6	-158	FanDuel Over 3.5 -152 \| best price	31.6%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -132	K Prop	Kyle Bradish Over	NAT@ORI	1:36 PM	5.5	6.5	-132	FanDuel Over 5.5 -132 \| best price	18.4%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
► GOOD ADDS
B	🔬 Research Note Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Outs	Mitch Keller Under	RED@PIR	1:36 PM	17.5	14.2	+101	DK Under 17.5 +101 \| exact	18.9%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Outs	Brady Singer Under	RED@PIR	1:36 PM	17.5	14.3	-138	BetMGM Under 17.5 -125 \| best price	18.4%	✓✓✓––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Merrill Kelly Over	DIA@RAY	1:41 PM	5.5	7.3	-119	DK Over 5.5 -119 \| exact	32.7%	✓✓✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Zack Littell Under	NAT@ORI	1:36 PM	5.5	4.4	-144	DK Under 5.5 -144 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-183); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Kyle Bradish Over	NAT@ORI	1:36 PM	1.5	2.4	-183	DK Over 1.5 -183 \| exact	62.8%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Merrill Kelly Over	DIA@RAY	1:41 PM	1.5	2.3	-166	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 \| best price	52.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Mitch Keller Over	RED@PIR	1:36 PM	1.5	2.0	-138	DK Over 1.5 -138 \| exact	35.4%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Walks	Drew Rasmussen Under	DIA@RAY	1:41 PM	1.5	1.0	-130	DK Under 1.5 -130 \| exact	30.2%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Merrill Kelly Over	DIA@RAY	1:41 PM	2.5	4.1	-140	DK Over 2.5 -140 \| exact	64.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.8% (7 books) \| consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C	K Prop	Shane Bieber Under	RAN@JAY	1:38 PM	4.5	3.2	+106	Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -180 \| alt rescue	27.9%	✓✓✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Merrill Kelly Under	DIA@RAY	1:41 PM	3.5	3.0	+105	DK Under 3.5 +105 \| exact	12.8%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Zack Littell Under	NAT@ORI	1:36 PM	3.5	3.1	-139	BetMGM Under 3.5 -115 \| best price	11.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Drew Rasmussen Under	DIA@RAY	1:41 PM	5.5	5.1	-113	DK Under 5.5 -113 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Mitch Keller Under	RED@PIR	1:36 PM	4.5	4.3	+128	BetOnline Under 5.5 -154 \| alt rescue	4.1%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Brady Singer Under	RED@PIR	1:36 PM	4.5	4.3	+109	DK Under 4.5 +109 \| exact	3.3%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.63 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Merrill Kelly Under	DIA@RAY	1:41 PM	17.5	14.9	-107	BetOnline Under 17.5 +100 \| best price	15.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.41 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Drew Rasmussen Over	DIA@RAY	1:41 PM	17.5	19.9	-150	DK Over 17.5 -150 \| exact	13.8%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Kyle Bradish Over	NAT@ORI	1:36 PM	17.5	18.3	-147	DK Over 17.5 -147 \| exact	4.7%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Hits All	Kumar Rocker Under	RAN@JAY	1:38 PM	5.5	4.7	-148	DK Under 5.5 -148 \| exact	14.5%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Shane Bieber Under	RAN@JAY	1:38 PM	5.5	4.8	-126	DK Under 5.5 -126 \| exact	12.7%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Mitch Keller Over	RED@PIR	1:36 PM	5.5	6.0	-126	BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 \| best price	9.1%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Kyle Bradish Under	NAT@ORI	1:36 PM	5.5	5.4	-153	DK Under 5.5 -153 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Brady Singer Under	RED@PIR	1:36 PM	5.5	5.4	+117	BetMGM Under 5.5 +120 \| best price	1.8%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Walks	Shane Bieber Over	RAN@JAY	1:38 PM	1.5	1.7	+114	DK Over 1.5 +114 \| exact	12.5%	✓!✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Brady Singer Over	RED@PIR	1:36 PM	1.5	1.6	-150	DK Over 1.5 -150 \| exact	9.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Kumar Rocker Over	RAN@JAY	1:38 PM	1.5	1.6	-134	DK Over 1.5 -134 \| exact	7.9%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Zack Littell Under	NAT@ORI	1:36 PM	1.5	1.4	-121	DK Under 1.5 -121 \| exact	6.5%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Zack Littell Over	NAT@ORI	1:36 PM	2.5	2.9	-157	DK Over 2.5 -157 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Mitch Keller Over	RED@PIR	1:36 PM	2.5	2.9	-122	DK Over 2.5 -122 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Drew Rasmussen Over	DIA@RAY	1:41 PM	1.5	1.7	-133	DK Over 1.5 -133 \| exact	13.3%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Shane Bieber Over	RAN@JAY	1:38 PM	2.5	2.8	-104	DK Over 2.5 -104 \| exact	12.0%	✓!✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Kumar Rocker Under	RAN@JAY	1:38 PM	2.5	2.2	-117	BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 \| best price	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Kyle Bradish Under	NAT@ORI	1:36 PM	2.5	2.3	-141	DK Under 2.5 -141 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Brady Singer Over	RED@PIR	1:36 PM	2.5	2.7	-135	DK Over 2.5 -135 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script