MLB Full Audit Saturday, June 27 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	317	56%	-3.60u	54	61%	+3.52u	144	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	262	57%	+6.24u	50	50%	-5.75u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	4	75%	+1.03u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	135	78%	+7.29u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	194	59%	+1.56u	98	57%	-4.27u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	141	60%	-4.74u	60	55%	-7.89u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	2	50%	-0.56u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	88	45%	-11.25u	10	70%	+2.04u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	1	0%	-1.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	28	54%	-1.88u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	4/5	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers	74.7	83.5	72.5	6	Changeup (66% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 37.0%, put-away 25.8%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	69.2	70.8	73.0	3	Slider (51% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 32.6%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics	64.9	60.7	73.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	64.3	49.1	83.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.249, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Alan Rangel	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	63.2	60.9	73.0	3	Changeup (44% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 29.5%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	62.5	62.2	66.5	4	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 59% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jose Cabrera	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays	60.9	58.0	74.5	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 11.1%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	59.6	62.1	58.0	6	Changeup (45% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	59.3	60.5	64.5	6	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	56.5	75.7	37.5	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 33.3%, put-away 25.4%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians	55.8	63.8	53.0	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals	55.2	60.4	54.0	6	Slider (45% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	54.5	42.9	67.0	5	Slider (34% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants	53.5	47.8	61.5	5	Slider (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kai-Wei Teng	Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers	52.0	57.2	47.5	6	Curveball (46% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles	50.6	52.6	50.5	7	Sweeper (35% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	50.3	44.2	59.0	5	Changeup (31% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox	49.5	47.4	52.5	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins	49.4	42.2	56.0	5	Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cole Sulser	Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks	47.9	59.3	36.0	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	46.4	49.2	43.5	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	44.4	44.5	45.5	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	44.3	49.1	37.5	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals	44.2	42.8	47.0	5	Slider (40% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners	44.1	43.0	44.0	7	Curveball (32% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Mike Paredes	Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies	38.3	36.1	41.0	4	Changeup (26% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins	36.5	42.4	26.0	7	Changeup (33% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals	35.4	44.2	24.5	7	Sweeper (30% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	32.3	34.0	28.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 11.4%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Randy Vásquez	San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	29.2	41.5	15.0	7	4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.385, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Jose Cabrera	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.1%	-	5.0	5.7	95	short	full	74.50	25.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 5.0 IP/GS, low-K contact opponent 18.9%, recent_form_unavailable
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	R	26.0%	4.0	4.5	5.0	67	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants	R	18.2%	5.1	5.9	5.8	86	short	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals	R	18.1%	6.1	5.6	5.7	102	deep	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	L	21.5%	5.2	5.3	5.5	87	normal	full	83.00	17.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	18.3%	3.8	4.7	4.7	64	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals	R	22.1%	5.1	5.8	5.7	86	short	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	31.3%	5.2	5.7	5.6	87	normal	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners	R	17.9%	5.3	5.3	5.3	89	normal	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins	R	19.7%	4.3	4.7	4.6	72	short	full	26.00	74.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	L	19.6%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kai-Wei Teng	Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers	R	23.4%	4.6	4.5	4.6	77	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox	R	16.7%	6.0	6.3	6.2	101	deep	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics	L	26.4%	6.2	5.9	6.0	104	deep	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	R	24.2%	6.8	6.5	6.6	114	deep	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	20.6%	3.3	3.8	4.6	55	short	full	24.50	75.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.3 IP/start
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	L	28.2%	5.1	5.1	5.1	86	short	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Mike Paredes	Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies	R	17.5%	3.7	4.2	5.0	62	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	24.6%	4.7	4.5	4.7	79	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.6%	5.1	5.4	5.5	86	short	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Alan Rangel	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	R	24.5%	4.0	-	5.5	67	short	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	R	22.9%	4.0	4.1	4.7	67	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Randy Vásquez	San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	16.0%	4.5	5.2	5.0	76	short	full	15.00	85.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.1%	7.0	6.4	6.5	117	deep	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians	R	28.8%	6.0	5.8	6.0	101	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins	R	18.5%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cole Sulser	Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	30.7%	1.2	2.0	4.5	20	short	full	36.00	64.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	17.4%	2.0	2.0	4.7	34	short	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.8%
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers	R	37.1%	5.1	5.6	5.5	86	short	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles	L	24.3%	5.8	5.7	6.0	97	normal	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.0%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	18.5	21.7	3.2	17.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.6	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants	18.5	21.5	3.0	16.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	117	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.97 <= 3 min
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Under	New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	15.0	-2.5	14.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.51 <= 3 min
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	19.5	2.0	11.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.02 <= 3 min
Kyle Harrison	Kyle Harrison Under	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.1	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.97 <= 3 min
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	18.9	1.4	8.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Andre Pallante	Andre Pallante Under	Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Davis Martin	Davis Martin Under	Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox	18.5	17.7	-0.8	4.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.7	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Chase Burns	Chase Burns Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

68 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► BEST PLAYS
A ⭐ TOP PICK	⭐ Top Pick K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -160	K Prop	Logan Gilbert Over	MAR@GUA	7:11 PM	5.5	8.0	-160	FanDuel Over 5.5 -152 \| best price	44.5%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch	K Prop	Dylan Cease Over	RAN@JAY	3:08 PM	7.5	9.9	-117	FanDuel Over 7.5 -115 \| best price	31.5%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
► GOOD ADDS
B	✅ Good Add Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks \| [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matc…	K Prop	Chase Burns Over	RED@PIR	4:06 PM	6.5	9.4	-156	BetMGM Over 6.5 -145 \| best price	45.4%	✓✓✓!––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, expected IP 4.8 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Alan Rangel Over	PHI@MET	4:11 PM	3.5	4.9	-149	FanDuel Over 3.5 -148 \| best price	39.7%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Reid Detmers Under	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	5.5	3.9	-142	DK Under 5.5 -142 \| exact	29.1%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Gerrit Cole Under	YAN@SOX	1:11 PM	5.5	4.6	-144	BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 \| best price	16.4%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Alan Rangel Under	PHI@MET	4:11 PM	2.5	1.7	-117	DK Under 2.5 -117 \| exact	32.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Randy Vasquez Over	DOD@PAD	8:41 PM	2.5	3.2	-152	DK Over 2.5 -152 \| exact	28.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Jake Bennett Under	YAN@SOX	1:11 PM	2.5	1.9	-145	DK Under 2.5 -145 \| exact	24.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Christian Scott Under	PHI@MET	4:11 PM	2.5	2.0	-162	DK Under 2.5 -162 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Mike Paredes Under	ROC@TWI	7:11 PM	2.5	2.0	-152	DK Under 2.5 -152 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael Lorenzen Under	ROC@TWI	7:11 PM	4.5	3.5	-148	DK Under 4.5 -148 \| exact	21.6%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Ryan Gusto Under	MAR@CAR	7:16 PM	3.5	2.8	+105	DK Under 3.5 +105 \| exact	19.9%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Jose Cabrera Over	DIA@RAY	6:11 PM	3.5	4.2	-166	FanDuel Over 3.5 -132 \| best price	19.1%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Jake Bennett Over	YAN@SOX	1:11 PM	4.5	5.2	+124	BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 \| alt rescue	16.7%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Jared Jones Over	RED@PIR	4:06 PM	5.5	6.3	+101	DK Over 5.5 +101 \| exact	14.8%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Mike Paredes Under	ROC@TWI	7:11 PM	3.5	3.0	-102	FanDuel Under 3.5 +102 \| best price	14.5%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Randy Vasquez Under	DOD@PAD	8:41 PM	3.5	3.0	-140	Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -135 \| best price	14.2%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	DOD@PAD	8:41 PM	6.5	7.2	+120	DK Over 6.5 +120 \| exact	11.6%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Kyle Harrison Over	CUB@BRE	7:11 PM	5.5	6.1	-156	FanDuel Over 5.5 -152 \| best price	10.9%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Reid Detmers Over	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	6.5	7.1	-144	DK Over 6.5 -144 \| exact	9.1%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Christian Scott Over	PHI@MET	4:11 PM	4.5	4.9	-106	FanDuel Over 4.5 -105 \| best price	9.0%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Davis Martin Over	ROY@SOX	4:11 PM	5.5	6.0	+102	FanDuel Over 5.5 +112 \| best price	8.2%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Logan Webb Under	BRA@GIA	9:06 PM	5.5	5.2	-155	FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 \| best price	4.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Foster Griffin Under	NAT@ORI	7:06 PM	6.5	6.3	-147	DK Under 6.5 -147 \| exact	2.3%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Kai-Wei Teng Over	AST@TIG	1:11 PM	5.5	5.6	+122	FanDuel Over 5.5 +124 \| best price	2.0%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Slade Cecconi Over	MAR@GUA	7:11 PM	4.5	4.6	+112	DK Over 4.5 +112 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Brandon Young Over	NAT@ORI	7:06 PM	4.5	4.6	+119	FanDuel Over 3.5 -150 \| alt rescue	1.7%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Gerrit Cole Under	YAN@SOX	1:11 PM	5.5	5.4	-133	DK Under 5.5 -133 \| exact	1.2%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Bryce Elder Under	BRA@GIA	9:06 PM	4.5	4.5	-134	DK Under 4.5 -134 \| exact	0.1%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Outs	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	DOD@PAD	8:41 PM	18.5	21.7	+100	DK Over 18.5 +100 \| exact	17.5%	✓✓✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.97 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Logan Webb Over	BRA@GIA	9:06 PM	18.5	21.5	-117	DK Over 18.5 -117 \| exact	16.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.51 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Gerrit Cole Under	YAN@SOX	1:11 PM	17.5	15.0	+102	Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 \| best price	14.4%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.02 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Michael Wacha Over	ROY@SOX	4:11 PM	17.5	19.5	-142	DK Over 17.5 -142 \| exact	11.5%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.97 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Kyle Harrison Under	CUB@BRE	7:11 PM	17.5	15.5	-131	DK Under 17.5 -131 \| exact	11.3%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Reid Detmers Over	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	17.5	18.9	-130	DK Over 17.5 -130 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Framber Valdez Under	AST@TIG	1:11 PM	17.5	16.4	+123	DK Under 17.5 +123 \| exact	6.3%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Andre Pallante Under	MAR@CAR	7:16 PM	17.5	16.4	-115	DK Under 17.5 -115 \| exact	6.1%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Dylan Cease Over	RAN@JAY	3:08 PM	17.5	18.3	-149	DK Over 17.5 -149 \| exact	4.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Davis Martin Under	ROY@SOX	4:11 PM	18.5	17.7	-165	DK Under 18.5 -165 \| exact	4.1%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Chase Burns Over	RED@PIR	4:06 PM	17.5	18.1	-131	DK Over 17.5 -131 \| exact	3.3%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)	Pitcher Hits All	Randy Vasquez Over	DOD@PAD	8:41 PM	5.5	6.5	+111	DK Over 5.5 +111 \| exact	18.2%	✓✓✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)	Pitcher Hits All	Logan Webb Under	BRA@GIA	9:06 PM	5.5	4.7	-102	DK Under 5.5 -102 \| exact	14.5%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Hits All	Bryce Elder Over	BRA@GIA	9:06 PM	5.5	6.3	-152	DK Over 5.5 -152 \| exact	14.5%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Davis Martin Over	ROY@SOX	4:11 PM	5.5	5.9	+119	DK Over 5.5 +119 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Slade Cecconi Under	MAR@GUA	7:11 PM	5.5	5.1	-148	DK Under 5.5 -148 \| exact	7.3%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Framber Valdez Under	AST@TIG	1:11 PM	5.5	5.3	-117	DK Under 5.5 -117 \| exact	3.6%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Michael Lorenzen Over	ROC@TWI	7:11 PM	6.5	6.7	+123	BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 \| alt rescue	3.1%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Michael Wacha Over	ROY@SOX	4:11 PM	5.5	5.6	-133	DK Over 5.5 -133 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	DOD@PAD	8:41 PM	1.5	1.8	-162	DK Over 1.5 -162 \| exact	20.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Michael Lorenzen Under	ROC@TWI	7:11 PM	3.5	2.9	-159	DK Under 3.5 -159 \| exact	17.1%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Earned R	Logan Webb Under	BRA@GIA	9:06 PM	2.5	2.1	-150	DK Under 2.5 -150 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Jack Perkins Under	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	2.5	2.1	-156	DK Under 2.5 -156 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Reid Detmers Under	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	2.5	2.1	-133	DK Under 2.5 -133 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Gerrit Cole Under	YAN@SOX	1:11 PM	2.5	2.2	-157	DK Under 2.5 -157 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Kai-Wei Teng Under	AST@TIG	1:11 PM	2.5	2.2	-120	DK Under 2.5 -120 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.06x)	Pitcher Earned R	Davis Martin Under	ROY@SOX	4:11 PM	2.5	2.2	-137	DK Under 2.5 -137 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)	Pitcher Earned R	Jose Cabrera Under	DIA@RAY	6:11 PM	2.5	2.2	-107	DK Under 2.5 -107 \| exact	12.0%	✓!✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Michael Wacha Over	ROY@SOX	4:11 PM	2.5	2.7	-124	DK Over 2.5 -124 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Bryce Elder Over	BRA@GIA	9:06 PM	2.5	2.7	-139	DK Over 2.5 -139 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Kyle Harrison Over	CUB@BRE	7:11 PM	1.5	1.6	-147	DK Over 1.5 -147 \| exact	6.7%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Slade Cecconi Under	MAR@GUA	7:11 PM	2.5	2.4	-121	DK Under 2.5 -121 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Framber Valdez Under	AST@TIG	1:11 PM	2.5	2.5	-139	DK Under 2.5 -139 \| exact	-	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Dylan Cease Under	RAN@JAY	3:08 PM	1.5	1.5	+115	DK Under 1.5 +115 \| exact	-	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Jack Perkins Over	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	5.5	6.3	-126	DK Over 5.5 -126 \| exact	15.4%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael Wacha Over	ROY@SOX	4:11 PM	4.5	5.2	-119	DK Over 4.5 -119 \| exact	15.2%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Andre Pallante Under	MAR@CAR	7:16 PM	4.5	3.9	-110	DK Under 4.5 -110 \| exact	14.5%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Framber Valdez Over	AST@TIG	1:11 PM	4.5	4.7	-155	BetRivers Over 4.5 -143 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script