MLB Full Audit Friday, June 26 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	313	57%	-2.91u	57	60%	+2.86u	143	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	260	57%	+6.61u	52	46%	-9.38u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	5	80%	+1.76u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	217	78%	+11.60u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	182	59%	+0.20u	96	57%	-4.22u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	134	58%	-7.35u	62	52%	-11.27u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	4	50%	-1.18u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	3	33%	-1.12u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	86	44%	-12.74u	8	62%	+0.55u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	4	67%	+0.82u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	36	58%	+0.69u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	88.4	94.7	95.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (43% whiff, 64% usage)	Savant whiff 38.3%, put-away 34.5%, xwOBA 0.224, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	69.9	63.2	80.5	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	63.7	61.0	71.0	6	Split-Finger (42% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics	62.2	61.0	66.0	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	61.2	50.8	73.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 50% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Steven Cruz	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox	56.6	73.4	40.0	3	4-Seam Fastball (32% whiff, 58% usage)	Savant whiff 32.0%, put-away 25.8%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Max Meyer	Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals	56.0	61.3	54.5	5	Slider (43% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	55.3	65.0	47.5	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	54.6	62.7	46.0	3	Slider (42% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	54.2	57.6	54.5	5	Changeup (33% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	52.2	48.2	56.5	5	Sweeper (22% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners	52.1	57.1	48.0	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies	51.7	56.7	47.0	4	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles	51.2	57.4	46.5	5	Slider (37% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
David Sandlin	Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals	49.5	53.6	47.0	6	Curveball (27% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers	48.0	57.8	42.0	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians	46.1	49.0	41.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 46% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals	44.6	40.7	48.0	5	Sweeper (30% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	44.1	33.1	57.0	5	Slider (24% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 16.4%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants	41.8	44.3	40.5	4	Slider (31% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	41.3	42.5	37.5	5	Changeup (40% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	41.2	38.9	45.0	7	Slider (30% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 18.6%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks	38.0	37.1	41.0	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Patrick Corbin	Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers	35.2	38.9	26.0	5	Slider (37% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 13.0%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	33.2	37.5	27.5	7	Slider (31% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 13.2%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zac Gallen	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays	32.6	34.7	25.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 13.2%, xwOBA 0.364, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins	30.1	36.3	25.0	7	Changeup (27% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins	22.3	30.7	9.0	7	Split-Finger (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 17.6%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zach Thornton	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	14.6	19.5	0.0	4	Sweeper (40% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 13.8%, put-away 8.3%, xwOBA 0.427, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Zac Gallen	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	12.8%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	25.50	74.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	R	20.9%	5.7	5.4	5.5	96	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reynaldo López	Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants	R	21.4%	1.6	4.3	4.3	27	short	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.6 IP/start
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals	L	17.2%	5.9	5.2	5.3	99	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	L	21.9%	5.4	5.8	5.8	91	normal	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Colin Rea	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	15.8%	4.7	5.2	5.1	79	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8%
David Sandlin	Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals	R	23.2%	4.4	5.0	5.4	74	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	19.0%	5.6	5.3	5.3	94	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners	L	22.7%	4.8	5.0	5.0	80	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins	R	14.5%	5.0	5.3	5.2	84	short	full	9.00	91.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	R	15.6%	5.0	5.7	5.5	84	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Spencer Arrighetti	Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers	R	23.3%	5.6	5.8	5.7	94	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Steven Cruz	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox	R	24.2%	1.3	-	4.9	22	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.3 IP/start
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics	R	22.2%	5.8	5.5	6.0	97	normal	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Roki Sasaki	Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	R	25.4%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Meyer	Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	27.1%	5.8	5.6	6.0	97	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	R	39.0%	7.2	6.2	6.4	121	deep	full	95.50	4.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.1%
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies	R	24.1%	4.7	5.5	5.3	79	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Zach Thornton	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	22.2%	-	4.3	5.6	94	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 4.3 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.4%	5.1	5.2	5.2	86	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	R	26.7%	6.0	6.2	6.2	101	deep	full	71.00	29.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds	R	32.3%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	80.50	19.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	21.7%	5.1	4.8	4.9	86	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Luis Castillo	Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians	R	21.6%	4.7	4.9	4.9	79	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins	R	15.2%	5.4	5.6	5.5	91	normal	full	25.00	75.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	15.3%	5.8	5.9	5.9	97	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	23.6%	6.2	6.2	6.2	104	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Patrick Corbin	Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers	L	16.6%	3.9	4.6	4.5	65	short	full	26.00	74.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles	L	24.2%	3.8	4.2	4.8	64	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets	17.5	20.8	3.3	18.8%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	18.5	21.2	2.7	14.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.4	121	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.72 <= 3 min
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Under	Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	15.0	-2.5	14.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.3	79	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.46 <= 3 min
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Under	Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	15.5	-2.0	11.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi Over	Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays	18.5	20.4	1.9	10.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.87 <= 3 min
Roki Sasaki	Roki Sasaki Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.2	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
JT Ginn	JT Ginn Under	Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nick Martinez	Nick Martinez Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

102 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► BEST PLAYS
A	✅ Best Play A-tier prop gate: 67% consensus; needs diff_pct >= 21.3% and raw gap >= 1.00 for Grade A (got 21.0%, 1.58)	K Prop	Paul Skenes Over	RED@PIR	6:41 PM	7.5	9.1	-144	BetMGM Over 7.5 -140 \| best price	21.0%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
► GOOD ADDS
B	🔬 Research Note Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	K Prop	Zach Thornton Under	PHI@MET	7:11 PM	4.5	3.0	-164	BetRivers Under 4.5 -162 \| best price	33.6%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup	K Prop	Colin Rea Under	CUB@BRE	7:46 PM	4.5	3.1	-154	DK Under 4.5 -154 \| exact	30.3%	✓✓!!––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Outs	Zack Wheeler Over	PHI@MET	7:11 PM	17.5	20.8	-165	FanDuel Over 17.5 -160 \| best price	18.8%	✓✓✓––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Zac Gallen Over	DIA@RAY	7:10 PM	5.5	7.6	-106	DK Over 5.5 -106 \| exact	38.2%	✓✓✓––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Hits All	Keider Montero Under	AST@TIG	6:41 PM	5.5	3.9	-158	DK Under 5.5 -158 \| exact	29.1%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-198); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Joey Cantillo Over	MAR@GUA	7:11 PM	1.5	2.3	-198	DK Over 1.5 -198 \| exact	54.5%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-181); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Max Meyer Over	MAR@CAR	8:15 PM	1.5	2.2	-181	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 \| best price	44.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.07x)	Pitcher Walks	Roki Sasaki Over	DOD@PAD	9:46 PM	1.5	2.1	-172	DK Over 1.5 -172 \| exact	37.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.06x)	Pitcher Walks	Colin Rea Over	CUB@BRE	7:46 PM	1.5	2.0	-183	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -175 \| best price	34.4%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.06x)	Pitcher Walks	Jacob Misiorowski Over	CUB@BRE	7:46 PM	1.5	2.0	-118	DK Over 1.5 -118 \| exact	34.1%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-172); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Taj Bradley Over	ROC@TWI	8:11 PM	1.5	1.9	-172	DK Over 1.5 -172 \| exact	28.8%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Zack Wheeler Over	PHI@MET	7:11 PM	1.5	1.9	-171	DK Over 1.5 -171 \| exact	27.4%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Joey Cantillo Over	MAR@GUA	7:11 PM	1.5	2.4	-171	DK Over 1.5 -171 \| exact	60.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Luis Castillo Over	MAR@GUA	7:11 PM	1.5	2.3	-174	BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 \| best price	53.3%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.07x)	Pitcher Earned R	Roki Sasaki Over	DOD@PAD	9:46 PM	1.5	2.3	-168	DK Over 1.5 -168 \| exact	53.3%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.07x)	Pitcher Earned R	Walbert Urena Over	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	1.5	2.1	-174	DK Over 1.5 -174 \| exact	40.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Zac Gallen Over	DIA@RAY	7:10 PM	2.5	3.4	-134	BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 \| best price	36.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Earned R	Andrew Alvarez Under	NAT@ORI	7:06 PM	2.5	1.7	-155	DK Under 2.5 -155 \| exact	32.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Tomoyuki Sugano Over	ROC@TWI	8:11 PM	2.5	3.2	-163	DK Over 2.5 -163 \| exact	28.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.06x)	Pitcher Earned R	Jacob Misiorowski Under	CUB@BRE	7:46 PM	1.5	1.1	-148	DK Under 1.5 -148 \| exact	26.7%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Will Warren Under	YAN@SOX	7:11 PM	2.5	1.9	-129	BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 \| best price	24.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.06x)	Pitcher Earned R	Colin Rea Over	CUB@BRE	7:46 PM	2.5	3.0	-121	DK Over 2.5 -121 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.07x)	Pitcher Earned R	Walker Buehler Under	DOD@PAD	9:46 PM	2.5	2.0	-120	DK Under 2.5 -120 \| exact	20.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (7 books) \| books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…	K Prop	Roki Sasaki Over	DOD@PAD	9:46 PM	5.5	6.8	-115	BetRivers Over 5.5 +102 \| best price	24.1%	✓✓✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (7 books) \| consensus 67% (7 books)	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski Over	CUB@BRE	7:46 PM	8.5	10.8	-131	BetMGM Over 8.5 +100 \| best price	27.2%	✓✓✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Zac Gallen Under	DIA@RAY	7:10 PM	3.5	2.6	-106	DK Under 3.5 -106 \| exact	25.3%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Walker Buehler Under	DOD@PAD	9:46 PM	4.5	3.5	-163	BetRivers Under 4.5 -162 \| best price	22.3%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Tomoyuki Sugano Under	ROC@TWI	8:11 PM	3.5	2.7	-150	BetRivers Under 3.5 -143 \| best price	21.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (6 books) \| books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree	K Prop	Max Meyer Over	MAR@CAR	8:15 PM	5.5	6.6	+103	BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 \| alt rescue	19.9%	✓✓✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Andrew Abbott Under	RED@PIR	6:41 PM	5.5	4.5	-165	DK Under 5.5 -165 \| exact	17.7%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Luis Castillo Under	MAR@GUA	7:11 PM	4.5	3.8	+122	BetOnline Under 4.5 +125 \| best price	15.2%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Walbert Urena Over	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	5.5	6.3	+119	BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 \| alt rescue	14.6%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Nick Martinez Under	DIA@RAY	7:10 PM	3.5	3.0	-125	BetRivers Under 3.5 -122 \| best price	14.1%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi Over	RAN@JAY	7:08 PM	5.5	6.2	+125	BetOnline Over 4.5 -149 \| alt rescue	12.5%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Trevor Rogers Under	NAT@ORI	7:06 PM	4.5	4.0	+110	DK Under 4.5 +110 \| exact	11.4%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Taj Bradley Under	ROC@TWI	8:11 PM	6.5	6.0	-132	Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -130 \| best price	8.1%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Spencer Arrighetti Over	AST@TIG	6:41 PM	5.5	5.9	-107	BetRivers Over 5.5 +100 \| best price	7.6%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Joey Cantillo Over	MAR@GUA	7:11 PM	5.5	5.8	+113	DK Over 5.5 +113 \| exact	5.5%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Will Warren Under	YAN@SOX	7:11 PM	4.5	4.3	+121	DK Under 4.5 +121 \| exact	4.2%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Zack Wheeler Over	PHI@MET	7:11 PM	6.5	6.7	-114	BetMGM Over 6.5 -110 \| best price	3.2%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Keider Montero Under	AST@TIG	6:41 PM	3.5	3.4	-105	BetRivers Under 3.5 +106 \| best price	3.0%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	JT Ginn Under	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	5.5	5.3	-122	BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 \| best price	2.7%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	David Sandlin Over	ROY@SOX	7:41 PM	4.5	4.5	+112	BetMGM Over 3.5 -175 \| alt rescue	0.7%	✓✗✗!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Payton Tolle Over	YAN@SOX	7:11 PM	5.5	5.5	-135	BetRivers Over 5.5 -104 \| best price	0.6%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.72 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Jacob Misiorowski Over	CUB@BRE	7:46 PM	18.5	21.2	+133	Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +140 \| best price	14.7%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.46 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Taj Bradley Under	ROC@TWI	8:11 PM	17.5	15.0	+105	BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 \| best price	14.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Trevor Rogers Under	NAT@ORI	7:06 PM	17.5	15.5	-131	FanDuel Under 17.5 -120 \| best price	11.4%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.87 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Nathan Eovaldi Over	RAN@JAY	7:08 PM	18.5	20.4	+110	FanDuel Over 18.5 +112 \| best price	10.1%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Roki Sasaki Under	DOD@PAD	9:46 PM	17.5	15.9	-131	BetMGM Under 17.5 -130 \| best price	9.4%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	JT Ginn Under	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	17.5	15.9	-109	DK Under 17.5 -109 \| exact	9.1%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Nick Martinez Under	DIA@RAY	7:10 PM	17.5	16.5	-121	BetMGM Under 17.5 -120 \| best price	5.7%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Paul Skenes Over	RED@PIR	6:41 PM	17.5	18.3	-178	BetOnline Over 17.5 -170 \| best price	4.5%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Andrew Abbott Under	RED@PIR	6:41 PM	5.5	4.8	-144	BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 \| best price	12.7%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Nick Martinez Over	DIA@RAY	7:10 PM	5.5	6.2	-106	DK Over 5.5 -106 \| exact	12.7%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Max Meyer Under	MAR@CAR	8:15 PM	5.5	4.8	-122	DK Under 5.5 -122 \| exact	12.7%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Nathan Eovaldi Over	RAN@JAY	7:08 PM	5.5	6.1	-127	DK Over 5.5 -127 \| exact	10.9%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Payton Tolle Under	YAN@SOX	7:11 PM	5.5	5.0	-152	BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 \| best price	9.1%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Trevor Rogers Under	NAT@ORI	7:06 PM	5.5	5.1	-130	BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 \| best price	7.3%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Will Warren Over	YAN@SOX	7:11 PM	5.5	5.8	-111	theScore Bet Over 5.5 -110 \| best price	5.5%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Michael McGreevy Over	MAR@CAR	8:15 PM	5.5	5.8	-141	theScore Bet Over 5.5 -135 \| best price	5.5%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Colin Rea Over	CUB@BRE	7:46 PM	5.5	5.7	+106	Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 \| best price	3.6%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Tomoyuki Sugano Over	ROC@TWI	8:11 PM	5.5	5.6	-129	DK Over 5.5 -129 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Keider Montero Under	AST@TIG	6:41 PM	1.5	1.2	-131	theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 \| best price	21.9%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Walks	Walbert Urena Over	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	2.5	3.0	+113	DK Over 2.5 +113 \| exact	21.5%	✓✓✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.07x)	Pitcher Walks	Walker Buehler Over	DOD@PAD	9:46 PM	1.5	1.8	-187	DK Over 1.5 -187 \| exact	21.4%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Walks	Nick Martinez Under	DIA@RAY	7:10 PM	1.5	1.2	-175	theScore Bet Under 1.5 -175 \| best price	21.1%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Paul Skenes Under	RED@PIR	6:41 PM	1.5	1.2	-108	DK Under 1.5 -108 \| exact	20.9%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over	Pitcher Walks	David Sandlin Over	ROY@SOX	7:41 PM	1.5	1.8	-160	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 \| best price	19.2%	✓!!!–!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Walks	Zach Thornton Over	PHI@MET	7:11 PM	1.5	1.8	-109	DK Over 1.5 -109 \| exact	18.5%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Walks	JT Ginn Over	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	2.5	3.0	+146	DK Over 2.5 +146 \| exact	18.4%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Luis Castillo Over	MAR@GUA	7:11 PM	1.5	1.8	-134	DK Over 1.5 -134 \| exact	16.9%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Walks	Spencer Arrighetti Over	AST@TIG	6:41 PM	2.5	2.9	+118	DK Over 2.5 +118 \| exact	14.7%	✓!✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Nathan Eovaldi Under	RAN@JAY	7:08 PM	1.5	1.3	-190	theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 \| best price	14.3%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Walks	Payton Tolle Over	YAN@SOX	7:11 PM	1.5	1.7	+110	DK Over 1.5 +110 \| exact	13.6%	✓!✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Trevor Rogers Over	NAT@ORI	7:06 PM	1.5	1.7	-103	DK Over 1.5 -103 \| exact	11.5%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano Under	ROC@TWI	8:11 PM	1.5	1.3	+111	DK Under 1.5 +111 \| exact	10.1%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Alvarez Over	NAT@ORI	7:06 PM	1.5	1.6	-132	DK Over 1.5 -132 \| exact	9.2%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Abbott Under	RED@PIR	6:41 PM	2.5	2.3	-157	DK Under 2.5 -157 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Zac Gallen Over	DIA@RAY	7:10 PM	1.5	1.6	-181	DK Over 1.5 -181 \| exact	6.4%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Michael McGreevy Under	MAR@CAR	8:15 PM	1.5	1.4	-137	DK Under 1.5 -137 \| exact	5.7%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Will Warren Under	YAN@SOX	7:11 PM	1.5	1.5	-119	DK Under 1.5 -119 \| exact	0.4%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Patrick Corbin Over	RAN@JAY	7:08 PM	1.5	1.5	-122	DK Over 1.5 -122 \| exact	0.2%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Zack Wheeler Over	PHI@MET	7:11 PM	1.5	1.8	-181	DK Over 1.5 -181 \| exact	20.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Trevor Rogers Over	NAT@ORI	7:06 PM	2.5	2.9	-105	DK Over 2.5 -105 \| exact	16.0%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Payton Tolle Under	YAN@SOX	7:11 PM	2.5	2.1	-138	BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 \| best price	16.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Max Meyer Under	MAR@CAR	8:15 PM	2.5	2.1	-129	DK Under 2.5 -129 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Spencer Arrighetti Over	AST@TIG	6:41 PM	2.5	2.8	-152	BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 \| best price	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Nick Martinez Over	DIA@RAY	7:10 PM	2.5	2.8	-108	DK Over 2.5 -108 \| exact	12.0%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Zach Thornton Over	PHI@MET	7:11 PM	2.5	2.8	-113	BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 \| best price	12.0%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Andrew Abbott Over	RED@PIR	6:41 PM	2.5	2.7	-123	DK Over 2.5 -123 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Michael McGreevy Over	MAR@CAR	8:15 PM	2.5	2.7	-110	BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 \| best price	8.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Paul Skenes Under	RED@PIR	6:41 PM	1.5	1.4	-124	BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 \| best price	6.7%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Keider Montero Under	AST@TIG	6:41 PM	2.5	2.4	-118	DK Under 2.5 -118 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Nathan Eovaldi Over	RAN@JAY	7:08 PM	2.5	2.6	-116	BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Taj Bradley Over	ROC@TWI	8:11 PM	2.5	2.6	-102	DK Over 2.5 -102 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	JT Ginn Under	ATH@ANG	9:39 PM	2.5	2.4	-160	BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 \| best price	4.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Patrick Corbin Under	RAN@JAY	7:08 PM	2.5	2.5	-124	DK Under 2.5 -124 \| exact	-	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Andrew Alvarez Over	NAT@ORI	7:06 PM	4.5	5.0	-143	BetRivers Over 4.5 -143 \| best price	11.6%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael McGreevy Under	MAR@CAR	8:15 PM	3.5	3.2	-107	BetOnline Under 3.5 -103 \| best price	9.1%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Patrick Corbin Over	RAN@JAY	7:08 PM	3.5	3.6	-171	BetMGM Over 3.5 -160 \| best price	2.5%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	David Sandlin Under	ROY@SOX	7:41 PM	2.5	2.5	-160	DK Under 2.5 -160 \| exact	-	✓✗!✓–✓	MONITOR

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script