MLB Betting Analyzer — Full Audit

Friday, June 26 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WRReview-only N
K Prop✅ TRUSTED31357%-2.91u5760%+2.86u14360%64
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED26057%+6.61u5246%-9.38u333%6
Run Line✅ TRUSTED13854%-3.08u580%+1.76u4163%1
Batter Walks👀 WATCH62772%-9.06u21778%+11.60u580%134
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH18259%+0.20u9657%-4.22u1100%9
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH13458%-7.35u6252%-11.27u0-11
Batter Hits👀 WATCH3778%+3.90u450%-1.18u0-23
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH3155%+0.66u333%-1.12u0-37
F5 ML👀 WATCH2848%+4.54u0-+0.00u0-0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH922%-5.18u0-+0.00u0-0
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-0
NRFI👀 WATCH333%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
YRFI👀 WATCH2100%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH8644%-12.74u862%+0.55u250%8
Total🔬 RESEARCH5038%-10.52u467%+0.82u1100%7
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH10%-1.00u0-+0.00u0-6
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED48450%-56.69u3658%+0.69u7053%355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/4season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/414d P&L non-negative
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/514d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research3/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

26 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs88.494.795.554-Seam Fastball (43% whiff, 64% usage)Savant whiff 38.3%, put-away 34.5%, xwOBA 0.224, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Paul SkenesPittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds69.963.280.57Changeup (38% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.254, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zack WheelerPhiladelphia Phillies vs New York Mets63.761.071.06Split-Finger (42% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Walbert UreñaLos Angeles Angels vs Athletics62.261.066.04Changeup (36% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Payton TolleBoston Red Sox vs New York Yankees61.250.873.054-Seam Fastball (26% whiff, 50% usage)Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Max MeyerMiami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals56.061.354.55Slider (43% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nathan EovaldiTexas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays55.365.047.56Curveball (36% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres54.662.746.03Slider (42% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
J.T. GinnAthletics vs Los Angeles Angels54.257.654.55Changeup (33% whiff, 18% usage)Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will WarrenNew York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox52.248.256.55Sweeper (22% whiff, 20% usage)Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joey CantilloCleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners52.157.248.05Changeup (39% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Taj BradleyMinnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies51.756.747.04Split-Finger (41% whiff, 19% usage)Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Andrew AlvarezWashington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles51.257.446.55Slider (37% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Spencer ArrighettiHouston Astros vs Detroit Tigers48.057.842.06Curveball (40% whiff, 33% usage)Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Luis CastilloSeattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians46.149.041.044-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 46% usage)Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Trevor RogersBaltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals44.640.748.05Sweeper (30% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 12.5%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Keider MonteroDetroit Tigers vs Houston Astros44.233.157.05Slider (24% whiff, 18% usage)Savant whiff 16.4%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reynaldo LópezAtlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants41.844.340.54Slider (31% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Andrew AbbottCincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates41.442.637.55Changeup (40% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Walker BuehlerSan Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers41.238.945.07Slider (30% whiff, 10% usage)Savant whiff 18.6%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Nick MartinezTampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks38.037.141.06Changeup (35% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Patrick CorbinToronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers35.338.926.05Slider (37% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 13.0%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Colin ReaChicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers33.337.527.57Slider (31% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 13.2%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zac GallenArizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays32.634.725.55Slider (30% whiff, 23% usage)Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 13.2%, xwOBA 0.364, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevySt. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins30.136.325.07Changeup (28% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki SuganoColorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins22.330.79.07Split-Finger (29% whiff, 20% usage)Savant whiff 17.6%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

26 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Zac GallenArizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysR12.8%5.05.05.084shortfull25.5074.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
J.T. GinnAthletics vs Los Angeles AngelsR20.9%5.75.45.596normalfull54.5045.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Reynaldo LópezAtlanta Braves vs San Francisco GiantsR21.4%1.64.34.327shortfull40.5059.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 1.6 IP/start
Trevor RogersBaltimore Orioles vs Washington NationalsL17.2%5.95.25.399normalfull48.0052.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Payton TolleBoston Red Sox vs New York YankeesL21.9%5.45.85.891normalfull73.0027.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.8%
Colin ReaChicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersR15.8%4.75.25.179shortfull27.5072.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Andrew AbbottCincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesL19.0%5.65.35.394normalfull37.5062.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Joey CantilloCleveland Guardians vs Seattle MarinersL22.7%4.85.05.080shortfull48.0052.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start
Tomoyuki SuganoColorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsR14.5%5.05.35.284shortfull9.0091.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start
Keider MonteroDetroit Tigers vs Houston AstrosR15.6%5.05.75.584shortfull57.0043.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start
Spencer ArrighettiHouston Astros vs Detroit TigersR23.3%5.65.85.794normalfull42.0058.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.6%
Walbert UreñaLos Angeles Angels vs AthleticsR22.2%5.85.56.097normalfull66.0034.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.8%
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresR25.4%5.35.25.289normalfull46.0054.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Max MeyerMiami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsR27.1%5.85.66.097normalfull54.5045.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Chicago CubsR39.0%7.26.26.4121deepfull95.504.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 11.1%
Taj BradleyMinnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesR24.1%4.75.55.379shortfull47.0053.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start
Will WarrenNew York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxR22.4%5.15.25.286shortfull56.5043.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start
Zack WheelerPhiladelphia Phillies vs New York MetsR26.7%6.06.26.2101deepfull71.0029.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Paul SkenesPittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati RedsR32.3%5.55.55.592normalfull80.5019.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.1%
Walker BuehlerSan Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersR21.7%5.14.84.986shortfull45.0055.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Luis CastilloSeattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansR21.6%4.74.94.979shortfull41.0059.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Michael McGreevySt. Louis Cardinals vs Miami MarlinsR15.2%5.45.65.591normalfull25.0075.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Nick MartinezTampa Bay Rays vs Arizona DiamondbacksR15.3%5.85.95.997normalfull41.0059.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handlow-K contact opponent 19.5%
Nathan EovaldiTexas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysR23.6%6.26.26.2104deepfull47.5052.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handlow-K contact opponent 19.6%
Patrick CorbinToronto Blue Jays vs Texas RangersL16.6%3.94.64.565shortfull26.0074.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.9 IP/start
Andrew AlvarezWashington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesL24.2%3.84.24.864shortfull46.5053.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Jacob MisiorowskiJacob Misiorowski OverChicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers17.521.23.721.2%BGOOD_ADDresearchdeep6.4121season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handMarket status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Zack WheelerZack Wheeler OverPhiladelphia Phillies @ New York Mets17.520.83.318.8%BGOOD_ADDresearchdeep6.2101season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handMarket status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Andrew AbbottAndrew Abbott UnderCincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates17.514.9-2.614.9%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.394season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.61 <= 3 min
Taj BradleyTaj Bradley UnderColorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins17.515.0-2.514.0%CALT_DERISKresearchshort5.379season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.46 <= 3 min
Trevor RogersTrevor Rogers UnderWashington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles17.515.5-2.011.4%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.399season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min
Nathan EovaldiNathan Eovaldi OverTexas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays18.520.41.910.1%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep6.2104season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.87 <= 3 min
Roki SasakiRoki Sasaki UnderLos Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres17.515.9-1.69.4%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.289season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
JT GinnJT Ginn UnderAthletics @ Los Angeles Angels17.515.9-1.69.1%CALT_DERISKresearch----Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nick MartinezNick Martinez UnderArizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays17.516.5-1.05.7%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.997season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul SkenesPaul Skenes OverCincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates17.518.30.84.5%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.592season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

68 candidates evaluated
← Back to Picks
GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffChecks ✓!✗–Rec
► GOOD ADDS
B✅ Good Add
Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
K PropWalbert Urena OverATH@ANG9:39 PM4.56.3-150BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | best price40.1%!GOOD ADD
B🔬 Research Note
Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
K PropColin Rea UnderCUB@BRE7:46 PM4.53.2-154DK Under 4.5 -154 | exact29.0%!!GOOD ADD
B🔬 Research Note
Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats
K PropZach Thornton UnderPHI@MET7:11 PM4.53.4-142BetMGM Under 4.5 -135 | best price25.2%!GOOD ADD
B🔬 Research Note
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
Pitcher OutsJacob Misiorowski OverCUB@BRE7:46 PM17.521.2-116DK Over 17.5 -116 | exact21.2%!!GOOD ADD
B🔬 Research Note
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher OutsZack Wheeler OverPHI@MET7:11 PM17.520.8-159DK Over 17.5 -159 | exact18.8%!!GOOD ADD
B✅ Good Add
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Hits AllZac Gallen OverDIA@RAY7:10 PM5.57.6-130BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price38.2%!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
Pitcher Earned RRoki Sasaki OverDOD@PAD9:46 PM1.52.3-120DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact53.3%!!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Earned RZac Gallen OverDIA@RAY7:10 PM2.53.4-126DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact36.0%!!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Earned RZack Wheeler UnderPHI@MET7:11 PM2.51.7-156DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact32.0%!!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
Pitcher Earned RJacob Misiorowski UnderCUB@BRE7:46 PM1.51.1-196DK Under 1.5 -196 | exact26.7%!!GOOD ADD
B👀 WatchPitcher Earned RWill Warren UnderYAN@SOX7:11 PM2.51.9-138DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact24.0%!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
Pitcher Earned RWalker Buehler UnderDOD@PAD9:46 PM2.52.0-133DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact20.0%!!GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)↘ Alt / Derisk
Books strongly against: blended market against 43.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…
K PropRoki Sasaki OverDOD@PAD9:46 PM5.56.8+117FanDuel Over 5.5 +118 | best price23.4%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree
K PropJacob Misiorowski OverCUB@BRE7:46 PM8.510.9-117BetMGM Over 8.5 -105 | best price27.9%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropZac Gallen UnderDIA@RAY7:10 PM3.52.6-109BetMGM Under 3.5 -105 | best price26.6%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree
K PropMax Meyer OverMAR@CAR8:15 PM5.56.8+106BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price23.8%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropWalker Buehler UnderDOD@PAD9:46 PM4.53.5-125DK Under 4.5 -125 | exact21.2%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropTomoyuki Sugano UnderROC@TWI8:11 PM3.52.8-122FanDuel Under 3.5 -114 | best price19.2%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropNick Martinez UnderDIA@RAY7:10 PM3.53.0+111DK Under 3.5 +111 | exact15.7%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropNathan Eovaldi OverRAN@JAY7:08 PM5.56.3+122BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue14.8%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D
K PropTaj Bradley UnderROC@TWI8:11 PM6.55.6-118DK Under 6.5 -118 | exact13.4%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropTrevor Rogers UnderNAT@ORI7:06 PM4.53.9-104FanDuel Under 4.5 +104 | best price12.3%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropAndrew Abbott UnderRED@PIR6:41 PM5.55.0-155DK Under 5.5 -155 | exact9.9%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropMichael McGreevy UnderMAR@CAR8:15 PM3.53.2+130DK Under 3.5 +130 | exact9.1%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropJoey Cantillo OverMAR@GUA7:11 PM5.55.9+100FanDuel Over 5.5 +110 | best price7.8%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropSpencer Arrighetti OverAST@TIG6:41 PM5.55.9-108BetRivers Over 5.5 -103 | best price7.8%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropLuis Castillo UnderMAR@GUA7:11 PM4.54.2-113FanDuel Under 4.5 -106 | best price7.7%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropPayton Tolle UnderYAN@SOX7:11 PM5.55.1-115FanDuel Under 5.5 -114 | best price6.9%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D
K PropPaul Skenes UnderRED@PIR6:41 PM8.58.0-148BetOnline Under 8.5 -141 | best price5.5%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropWill Warren UnderYAN@SOX7:11 PM4.54.3+131BetOnline Under 5.5 -159 | alt rescue4.3%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
K PropJT Ginn UnderATH@ANG9:39 PM5.55.3-133BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 | best price3.2%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropDavid Sandlin UnderROY@SOX7:41 PM4.54.4-131DK Under 4.5 -131 | exact3.1%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropKeider Montero UnderAST@TIG6:41 PM3.53.4+109DK Under 3.5 +109 | exact2.3%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
K PropPatrick Corbin OverRAN@JAY7:08 PM3.53.5-166DK Over 3.5 -166 | exact0.9%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.61 <= 3 min — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsAndrew Abbott UnderRED@PIR6:41 PM17.514.9-134DK Under 17.5 -134 | exact14.9%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.46 <= 3 min — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsTaj Bradley UnderROC@TWI8:11 PM17.515.0+100DK Under 17.5 +100 | exact14.0%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.00 <= 3 min — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsTrevor Rogers UnderNAT@ORI7:06 PM17.515.5-108Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -105 | best price11.4%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +1.87 <= 3 min — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsNathan Eovaldi OverRAN@JAY7:08 PM18.520.4+114Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +115 | best price10.1%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsRoki Sasaki UnderDOD@PAD9:46 PM17.515.9-123DK Under 17.5 -123 | exact9.4%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsJT Ginn UnderATH@ANG9:39 PM17.515.9-104DK Under 17.5 -104 | exact9.1%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsNick Martinez UnderDIA@RAY7:10 PM17.516.5-122DK Under 17.5 -122 | exact5.7%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsPaul Skenes OverRED@PIR6:41 PM17.518.3-190DK Over 17.5 -190 | exact4.5%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)
Pitcher Hits AllKeider Montero UnderAST@TIG6:41 PM5.54.0-133DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact27.3%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / DeriskPitcher Hits AllAndrew Abbott UnderRED@PIR6:41 PM5.54.7-157BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price14.5%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllNick Martinez OverDIA@RAY7:10 PM5.56.2-109DK Over 5.5 -109 | exact12.7%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllNathan Eovaldi OverRAN@JAY7:08 PM5.56.1-121DK Over 5.5 -121 | exact10.9%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllPayton Tolle UnderYAN@SOX7:11 PM5.55.0-156BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price9.1%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllTaj Bradley UnderROC@TWI8:11 PM5.55.1-151DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact7.3%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllWill Warren OverYAN@SOX7:11 PM5.55.7+108DK Over 5.5 +108 | exact3.6%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllPatrick Corbin UnderRAN@JAY7:08 PM5.55.4-156Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -155 | best price1.8%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllColin Rea UnderCUB@BRE7:46 PM5.55.5-128BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price-!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllTomoyuki Sugano UnderROC@TWI8:11 PM5.55.5+104BetMGM Under 5.5 +110 | best price-!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / DeriskPitcher Earned RPayton Tolle UnderYAN@SOX7:11 PM2.52.1-130DK Under 2.5 -130 | exact16.0%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)
Pitcher Earned RColin Rea OverCUB@BRE7:46 PM2.52.9-131DK Over 2.5 -131 | exact16.0%!!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)
Pitcher Earned RWalbert Urena UnderATH@ANG9:39 PM2.52.1-143DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact16.0%!!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)
Pitcher Earned RNick Martinez OverDIA@RAY7:10 PM2.52.8-113DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact12.0%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RTomoyuki Sugano UnderROC@TWI8:11 PM3.53.2-157DK Under 3.5 -157 | exact8.6%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RAndrew Abbott OverRED@PIR6:41 PM2.52.7-113DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact8.0%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RSpencer Arrighetti OverAST@TIG6:41 PM2.52.7-117DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact8.0%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RNathan Eovaldi OverRAN@JAY7:08 PM2.52.7+100DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact8.0%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RZach Thornton OverPHI@MET7:11 PM2.52.7-105DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact8.0%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RPaul Skenes UnderRED@PIR6:41 PM1.51.4-138DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact6.7%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RTaj Bradley OverROC@TWI8:11 PM2.52.6-110DK Over 2.5 -110 | exact4.0%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RJT Ginn UnderATH@ANG9:39 PM2.52.4-157DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact4.0%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RKeider Montero UnderAST@TIG6:41 PM2.52.5-138DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact-!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RPatrick Corbin UnderRAN@JAY7:08 PM2.52.5-115DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact-!ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)◇ Monitor
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D
K PropAndrew Alvarez OverNAT@ORI7:06 PM4.55.0-151BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price10.1%MONITOR
B (Review)◇ Monitor
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D
K PropZack Wheeler OverPHI@MET7:11 PM6.56.9-117FanDuel Over 6.5 -110 | best price6.5%MONITOR

✓ PASS   ! WARN   ✗ FAIL   – N/A  |  Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script