| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 312 | 56% | -3.68u | 60 | 60% | +3.15u | 143 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 258 | 57% | +6.77u | 56 | 50% | -6.52u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 5 | 80% | +1.76u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 304 | 75% | +3.02u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 181 | 59% | +1.20u | 106 | 58% | -2.32u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 133 | 58% | -8.06u | 70 | 50% | -14.30u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 6 | 50% | -1.71u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 4 | 50% | -0.25u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 86 | 44% | -12.74u | 9 | 67% | +1.22u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 4 | 67% | +0.82u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 47 | 53% | -3.46u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 4/5 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 72.2 | 61.2 | 92.0 | 7 | Slider (31% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.231, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 67.5 | 70.8 | 72.0 | 3 | Changeup (45% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 26.2%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | 66.5 | 62.1 | 76.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.262, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers | 59.3 | 59.9 | 61.0 | 3 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | 59.3 | 56.2 | 65.0 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 25.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | 56.7 | 69.7 | 46.5 | 5 | Slider (50% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 32.5%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | 54.7 | 55.7 | 54.5 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | 52.0 | 56.6 | 50.0 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | 50.9 | 63.1 | 42.5 | 5 | Slider (40% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 30.6%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners | 48.9 | 49.2 | 48.5 | 6 | Slider (37% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | 48.8 | 54.1 | 43.0 | 5 | Curveball (41% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | 48.4 | 42.8 | 55.0 | 6 | Slider (26% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | 45.9 | 46.1 | 42.5 | 5 | Changeup (41% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Connelly Early | Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | 45.8 | 48.8 | 44.5 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 22.7%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Casey Legumina | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | 42.0 | 39.4 | 42.0 | 5 | Slider (28% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | 34.5 | 35.7 | 32.0 | 8 | Cutter (22% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 17.6%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 32.6 | 34.7 | 25.5 | 5 | Slider (30% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 13.2%, xwOBA 0.364, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 30.1 | 36.3 | 25.0 | 7 | Changeup (28% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 12.8% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 25.50 | 74.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | L | 20.5% | 4.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 69 | short | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Connelly Early | Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | L | 22.8% | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.9% |
| Matthew Boyd | Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | L | 27.1% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 76 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | R | 18.1% | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 104 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | R | 25.9% | 5.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 91 | normal | full | 42.50 | 57.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 16.7% | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 87 | normal | full | 32.00 | 68.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | R | 20.5% | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 79 | short | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | R | 29.5% | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 96 | normal | full | 76.50 | 23.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | L | 28.1% | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 107 | deep | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners | R | 20.5% | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 89 | normal | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | R | 25.7% | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 82 | short | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 29.1% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 92.00 | 8.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5% |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 15.2% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 25.00 | 75.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Casey Legumina | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | R | 23.0% | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 22 | short | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.3 IP/start |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 25.0% | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 96 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers | R | 24.9% | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 61.00 | 39.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 22.2% | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 77 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 19.8 | 2.3 | 13.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.30 <= 3 min |
| Landen Roupp | Landen Roupp Under | Athletics @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 15.3 | -2.2 | 12.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.3 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.19 <= 3 min |
| Seth Lugo | Seth Lugo Under | Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 15.7 | -1.8 | 10.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min |
| MacKenzie Gore | MacKenzie Gore Under | Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 9.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.3 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | Kevin Gausman Under | Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 16.3 | -1.2 | 7.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.5 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | 20.5 | 21.8 | 1.3 | 6.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5 |
| Bryce Miller | Bryce Miller Under | Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | 0.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Seth Lugo Under | ROY@RAY | 12:11 PM | 4.5 | 2.9 | -130 | DK Under 4.5 -130 | exact | 34.7% | ✓✓!!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sanchez Under | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 6.5 | 5.2 | -159 | DK Under 6.5 -159 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Troy Melton Under | AST@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -119 | DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Bubba Chandler Over | MAR@PIR | 12:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.7 | -141 | DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact | 76.8% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Under | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 1.5 | -168 | DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 6.5 | 8.7 | +116 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +116 | best price | 34.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Bryce Miller Over | MAR@PIR | 12:36 PM | 5.5 | 7.7 | -105 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +107 | best price | 39.8% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Boyd Over | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | +103 | BetMGM Over 4.5 +115 | best price | 18.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Jeffrey Springs Under | ATH@GIA | 3:46 PM | 4.5 | 3.7 | -103 | DK Under 4.5 -103 | exact | 17.8% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Zac Gallen Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -103 | BetRivers Under 3.5 +108 | best price | 17.7% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Troy Melton Over | AST@TIG | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | +118 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -170 | alt rescue | 12.8% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Under | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -159 | DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact | 10.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Over | YAN@SOX | 7:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.1 | -113 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -180 | alt rescue | 8.8% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | MacKenzie Gore Over | RAN@JAY | 7:08 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -156 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -143 | best price | 8.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tatsuya Imai Over | AST@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +101 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +123 | best price | 5.3% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Connelly Early Over | YAN@SOX | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -115 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 3.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Freddy Peralta Over | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +108 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +117 | best price | 1.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Landen Roupp Under | ATH@GIA | 3:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +118 | FanDuel Under 5.5 +122 | best price | 0.6% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.30 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cam Schlittler Over | YAN@SOX | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.8 | -132 | DK Over 17.5 -132 | exact | 13.1% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.19 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Landen Roupp Under | ATH@GIA | 3:46 PM | 17.5 | 15.3 | -106 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +100 | best price | 12.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Seth Lugo Under | ROY@RAY | 12:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.7 | -122 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -118 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | MacKenzie Gore Under | RAN@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 15.9 | -138 | DK Under 17.5 -138 | exact | 9.3% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kevin Gausman Under | RAN@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 16.3 | +123 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +125 | best price | 7.1% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 20.5 | 21.8 | -107 | DK Over 20.5 -107 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryce Miller Under | MAR@PIR | 12:36 PM | 17.5 | 17.4 | +113 | BetOnline Under 17.5 +115 | best price | 0.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cade Cavalli Under | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -128 | DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | MacKenzie Gore Under | RAN@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -159 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@GIA | 3:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +124 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@RAY | 12:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -119 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@RAY | 12:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -133 | DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact | 18.9% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Jeffrey Springs Under | ATH@GIA | 3:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | +118 | DK Under 1.5 +118 | exact | 16.2% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Bryce Miller Under | MAR@PIR | 12:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -200 | DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact | 1.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Landen Roupp Under | ATH@GIA | 3:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -180 | DK Under 2.5 -180 | exact | 0.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Landen Roupp Under | ATH@GIA | 3:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -168 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Jeffrey Springs Over | ATH@GIA | 3:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -101 | DK Over 2.5 -101 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cade Cavalli Under | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -132 | DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Miller Over | MAR@PIR | 12:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -171 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | best price | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Cam Schlittler Under | YAN@SOX | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | +111 | BetMGM Under 1.5 +120 | best price | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Seth Lugo Over | ROY@RAY | 12:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -113 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Tatsuya Imai Under | AST@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -111 | DK Under 2.5 -111 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Kevin Gausman Under | RAN@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -176 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -175 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Boyd Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -172 | DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bubba Chandler Over | MAR@PIR | 12:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +103 | DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Troy Melton Over | AST@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -115 | DK Over 2.5 -115 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | MacKenzie Gore Under | RAN@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -124 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Freddy Peralta Over | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +107 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +110 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Connelly Early Under | YAN@SOX | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -119 | DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Bubba Chandler Over | MAR@PIR | 12:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -146 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price | 7.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kevin Gausman Under | RAN@JAY | 7:08 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -145 | DK Under 6.5 -145 | exact | 4.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script