| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 303 | 56% | -6.33u | 57 | 54% | -1.78u | 138 | 59% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 252 | 58% | +9.53u | 54 | 54% | -2.33u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 6 | 67% | +0.76u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 344 | 76% | +6.34u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 172 | 60% | +5.21u | 101 | 58% | -2.31u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 129 | 57% | -10.25u | 74 | 49% | -16.46u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 8 | 50% | -2.22u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 4 | 50% | -0.25u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 86 | 44% | -12.74u | 9 | 67% | +1.22u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 4 | 67% | +0.82u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 55 | 56% | -1.02u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 4/5 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | 71.5 | 72.4 | 78.0 | 7 | Curveball (40% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 27.4%, xwOBA 0.259, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | 66.5 | 62.8 | 72.5 | 3 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners | 65.0 | 62.5 | 71.5 | 5 | Curveball (40% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 24.7%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | 64.4 | 75.1 | 59.5 | 5 | Changeup (43% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 33.6%, put-away 24.2%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 63.2 | 60.7 | 68.0 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.0 | 53.2 | 69.0 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | 58.4 | 62.6 | 58.5 | 5 | Changeup (47% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | 58.1 | 71.8 | 48.0 | 5 | Curveball (45% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 33.3%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | 57.8 | 50.0 | 69.0 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.3 | 52.7 | 65.5 | 5 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | 57.3 | 55.1 | 65.5 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | 56.1 | 53.1 | 63.5 | 6 | Curveball (42% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | 54.3 | 62.2 | 48.0 | 5 | Sweeper (44% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | 50.3 | 50.9 | 50.5 | 5 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 48.7 | 48.4 | 47.0 | 6 | Curveball (36% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | 48.5 | 67.1 | 30.0 | 6 | Sweeper (41% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | 48.5 | 46.5 | 49.5 | 5 | Split-Finger (25% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | 48.3 | 63.2 | 35.0 | 6 | Changeup (44% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | 47.8 | 56.4 | 41.5 | 6 | Cutter (37% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 47.6 | 44.1 | 53.0 | 5 | Changeup (34% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | 47.5 | 49.9 | 44.5 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Mike Burrows | Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 45.1 | 48.2 | 39.5 | 5 | Changeup (33% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | 38.8 | 31.3 | 43.0 | 5 | Changeup (29% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 17.1%, put-away 13.4%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox | 37.8 | 45.8 | 26.5 | 6 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.362, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 37.4 | 42.1 | 31.5 | 4 | Slider (37% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Javier Assad | Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | 36.4 | 22.8 | 51.0 | 7 | Cutter (12% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 13.6%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 36.2 | 44.3 | 24.0 | 7 | Curveball (37% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.367, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | 35.0 | 28.0 | 39.0 | 6 | Slider (19% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 15.6%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Trey Gibson | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | 30.2 | 39.9 | 18.5 | 6 | Slider (29% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.378, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Bratt | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | L | 22.2% | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 101 | deep | full | 69.00 | 31.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | L | 19.5% | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 89 | normal | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Trey Gibson | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 19.6% | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 69 | short | full | 18.50 | 81.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | L | 24.8% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 63.50 | 36.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Javier Assad | Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | R | 17.2% | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 76 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Erick Fedde | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 17.2% | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 69 | short | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 19.2% | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 59 | short | full | 31.50 | 68.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | R | 21.9% | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 97 | normal | full | 41.50 | 58.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox | L | 18.7% | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 89 | normal | full | 26.50 | 73.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | L | 26.7% | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 96 | normal | full | 58.50 | 41.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.0% |
| Mike Burrows | Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 18.1% | 4.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 77 | short | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 22.3% | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 91 | normal | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 23.7% | 5.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 84 | short | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | R | 25.6% | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 97 | normal | full | 78.00 | 22.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Eury Pérez | Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | R | 27.8% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 87 | normal | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | L | 22.7% | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 74 | short | full | 68.00 | 32.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 28.7% | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 69.00 | 31.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | R | 27.3% | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 84 | short | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | L | 24.4% | 4.6 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 77 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | L | 25.7% | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | R | 23.4% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 82 | short | full | 47.00 | 53.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners | R | 26.2% | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 94 | normal | full | 71.50 | 28.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| JP Sears | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | L | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| Tyler Mahle | San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | R | 23.5% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 86 | short | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 25.7% | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 22.6% | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 65 | short | full | 24.00 | 76.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | R | 23.8% | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 70 | short | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | R | 29.4% | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | R | 22.0% | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 96 | normal | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Miles Mikolas | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 13.3% | 5.3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 89 | normal | full | 39.00 | 61.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron | Noah Cameron Under | Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 15.4 | -2.1 | 11.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.08 <= 3 min |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Braxton Ashcraft Over | Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 10.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.78 <= 3 min |
| Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean Under | Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets | 17.5 | 15.8 | -1.7 | 9.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.4 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Shohei Ohtani Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 8.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.1 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Jose Soriano | Jose Soriano Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 16.3 | -1.2 | 6.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.6 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Over | Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Ryan Weathers | Ryan Weathers Over | New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 18.5 | 1.1 | 6.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Jacob deGrom | Jacob deGrom Under | Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins | 18.5 | 17.8 | -0.7 | 3.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Joe Ryan | Joe Ryan Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.4 | 2.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal Under | New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers | 18.5 | 18.2 | -0.3 | 1.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Ranger Suarez | Ranger Suarez Under | Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 17.2 | -0.2 | 1.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -161, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade… | K Prop | Ranger Suarez Over | SOX@ROC | 3:11 PM | 4.5 | 6.7 | -161 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -156 | best price | 48.3% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -161 | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 7.1 | -161 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -140 | best price | 29.7% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 97 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks | K Prop | Javier Assad Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.3 | +128 | DK Under 3.5 +128 | exact | 33.6% | ✓✓!!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 20% usage pitch | K Prop | Ryan Weathers Over | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 7.2 | -119 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price | 31.1% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Javier Assad Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 3.3 | -165 | DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Martin Perez Under | BRA@PAD | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 3.7 | -167 | DK Under 5.5 -167 | exact | 32.7% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@ROC | 3:11 PM | 6.5 | 4.4 | -148 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -140 | best price | 32.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Weathers Under | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -147 | DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Mike Burrows Over | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | -114 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 16.4% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-214); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Freeland Over | SOX@ROC | 3:11 PM | 0.5 | 1.3 | -214 | DK Over 0.5 -214 | exact | 150.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-186); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Trey Gibson Over | ORI@ANG | 4:08 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -186 | DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact | 37.0% | ✓✓!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Miles Mikolas Under | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -226 | DK Under 1.5 -226 | exact | 34.1% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Shohei Ohtani Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -135 | DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact | 24.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Drohan Under | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -132 | DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob deGrom Over | RAN@MAR | 12:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -160 | DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Jax Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -120 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Braxton Ashcraft Under | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -156 | DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Martin Perez Under | BRA@PAD | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -154 | DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Nolan McLean Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -164 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Joe Ryan Under | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -122 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Jose Soriano Under | ORI@ANG | 4:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -127 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Eury Perez Over | RAN@MAR | 12:11 PM | 4.5 | 7.0 | -141 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -110 | best price | 55.8% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | ORI@ANG | 4:08 PM | 6.5 | 7.6 | +100 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +102 | best price | 17.3% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 27.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Miles Mikolas Under | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 2.5 | -161 | Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -145 | best price | 27.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Bryan Woo Over | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.7 | -108 | BetOnline Over 5.5 +118 | best price | 21.4% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 4.5 | 5.3 | -129 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 18.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Rhett Lowder Under | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | -150 | DK Under 4.5 -150 | exact | 15.1% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Joe Ryan Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | -143 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -125 | best price | 11.6% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Bibee Over | GUA@SOX | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +123 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue | 11.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Martin Perez Under | BRA@PAD | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -133 | DK Under 4.5 -133 | exact | 8.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Mahle Over | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -103 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price | 7.7% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Cameron Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | +104 | FanDuel Over 4.5 +114 | best price | 6.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tarik Skubal Over | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 7.5 | 7.9 | +124 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -125 | alt rescue | 5.2% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trey Yesavage Over | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | -113 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -105 | best price | 5.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shohei Ohtani Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | +110 | BetMGM Over 6.5 +115 | best price | 4.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Liberatore Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -152 | BetRivers Under 3.5 -150 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Drohan Over | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +109 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -167 | alt rescue | 3.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Freeland Under | SOX@ROC | 3:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -168 | Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -145 | best price | 0.9% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jacob deGrom Over | RAN@MAR | 12:11 PM | 7.5 | 7.6 | +120 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -105 | alt rescue | 0.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Noah Cameron Under | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 15.4 | +109 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +124 | best price | 11.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.78 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Braxton Ashcraft Over | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 19.3 | -137 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nolan McLean Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.8 | -129 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -128 | best price | 9.6% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shohei Ohtani Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.9 | -149 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -148 | best price | 8.3% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jose Soriano Under | ORI@ANG | 4:08 PM | 17.5 | 16.3 | -105 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +105 | best price | 6.9% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryan Woo Over | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -175 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -166 | best price | 6.3% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ryan Weathers Over | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.5 | -148 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -120 | best price | 6.0% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jacob deGrom Under | RAN@MAR | 12:11 PM | 18.5 | 17.8 | -147 | DK Under 18.5 -147 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Joe Ryan Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.9 | -142 | BetMGM Over 17.5 -125 | best price | 2.5% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tarik Skubal Under | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 18.2 | -163 | DK Under 18.5 -163 | exact | 1.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@ROC | 3:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.2 | -101 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 1.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Cameron Under | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -126 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -107 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Rhett Lowder Under | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -159 | DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Joe Ryan Under | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -148 | DK Under 5.5 -148 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Trey Gibson Under | ORI@ANG | 4:08 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -146 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Freeland Under | SOX@ROC | 3:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.0 | +114 | BetMGM Under 6.5 +115 | best price | 7.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matthew Liberatore Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -113 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +100 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Nola Over | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -117 | DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Eury Perez Over | RAN@MAR | 12:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +128 | DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact | 42.9% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Weathers Over | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -162 | DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact | 22.4% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Jose Soriano Over | ORI@ANG | 4:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | +103 | theScore Bet Over 2.5 +105 | best price | 14.1% | ✓!✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Ranger Suarez Over | SOX@ROC | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +106 | DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact | 13.2% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jacob deGrom Under | RAN@MAR | 12:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -142 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -135 | best price | 10.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Javier Assad Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -120 | DK Under 1.5 -120 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Tarik Skubal Under | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -250 | DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact | 7.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Nolan McLean Over | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +105 | DK Over 2.5 +105 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Rhett Lowder Under | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -169 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -165 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Aaron Nola Under | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +101 | DK Under 1.5 +101 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Joe Ryan Under | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +114 | DK Under 1.5 +114 | exact | 2.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Eury Perez Over | RAN@MAR | 12:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | +110 | DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact | 66.7% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Tarik Skubal Over | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +120 | DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@ROC | 3:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -104 | DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Javier Assad Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -146 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Mike Burrows Over | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -126 | DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Shohei Ohtani Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -140 | DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Freeland Under | SOX@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.1 | -137 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -125 | best price | 11.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Weathers Under | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -161 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Cameron Under | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -134 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryan Woo Under | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -137 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Mahle Over | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +131 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 | alt rescue | 8.0% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trey Gibson Over | ORI@ANG | 4:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -114 | DK Over 2.5 -114 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trey Yesavage Under | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -144 | DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Rhett Lowder Over | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -141 | DK Over 2.5 -141 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Liberatore Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -124 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | JP Sears Under | BRA@PAD | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +105 | DK Under 2.5 +105 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Nola Under | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +104 | DK Under 2.5 +104 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Mike Burrows Over | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -155 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -120 | best price | 21.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Over | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -153 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -150 | best price | 10.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Gage Jump Over | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 4.5 | 4.9 | -137 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -135 | best price | 8.2% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Griffin Jax Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | -160 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -124 | best price | 4.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Trey Gibson Under | ORI@ANG | 4:08 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -107 | BetOnline Under 4.5 -103 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | JP Sears Over | BRA@PAD | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +134 | theScore Bet Over 2.5 +140 | alt rescue | 0.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script