| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 298 | 56% | -6.42u | 57 | 51% | -4.90u | 137 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 250 | 58% | +9.49u | 59 | 54% | -2.41u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 11 | 64% | +1.13u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 405 | 74% | -1.12u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 166 | 61% | +6.29u | 102 | 61% | +2.11u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 123 | 59% | -4.25u | 71 | 54% | -10.19u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 9 | 56% | -1.81u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 5 | 60% | +0.50u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 85 | 45% | -11.74u | 9 | 78% | +3.00u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 5 | 50% | -0.18u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 69 | 58% | +0.39u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 5/5 | No blocker |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 3/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 65.5 | 69.1 | 64.0 | 4 | Sweeper (47% whiff, 35% usage) | Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | 64.7 | 63.1 | 70.5 | 5 | Slider (34% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 23.3%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Sullivan | Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox | 61.3 | 13.1 | 100.0 | 4 | Cutter (12% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 10.2%, put-away 8.9%, xwOBA 0.205, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kendry Rojas | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.1 | 67.7 | 55.5 | 4 | Slider (35% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 25.6%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | 58.2 | 56.3 | 64.0 | 6 | Changeup (40% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | 57.9 | 61.7 | 59.0 | 5 | Changeup (35% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 54.9 | 50.3 | 60.5 | 6 | Changeup (39% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | 53.8 | 60.3 | 53.0 | 4 | Changeup (36% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.1 | 44.0 | 58.0 | 6 | Sweeper (26% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kodai Senga | New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | 49.8 | 66.5 | 33.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | 49.5 | 44.0 | 54.0 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | 48.7 | 46.5 | 51.5 | 6 | Slider (32% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | 48.2 | 49.6 | 45.0 | 5 | Slider (38% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Edward Cabrera | Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | 47.1 | 56.2 | 37.0 | 5 | Slider (46% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | 46.8 | 41.8 | 52.5 | 6 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 43.7 | 51.5 | 34.0 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | 42.8 | 51.8 | 35.5 | 5 | Slider (36% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | 41.8 | 43.5 | 40.5 | 5 | Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| JR Ritchie | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 41.0 | 42.5 | 37.0 | 6 | Curveball (37% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | 40.3 | 34.1 | 48.0 | 7 | 4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 50% usage) | Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners | 38.6 | 41.4 | 35.0 | 7 | Sweeper (22% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 36.7 | 39.1 | 36.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | 35.8 | 38.4 | 17.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (36% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 10.3%, xwOBA 0.380, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Civale | Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | 35.3 | 38.9 | 27.5 | 6 | Curveball (26% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 33.7 | 45.9 | 20.0 | 6 | Changeup (43% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.375, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | 32.7 | 32.9 | 30.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 11.4%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 29.9 | 39.3 | 13.0 | 4 | Curveball (33% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| PJ Poulin | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | 25.8 | 26.4 | 22.0 | 4 | Sweeper (27% whiff, 35% usage) | Savant whiff 14.9%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.371, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Bieber | Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 18.3% | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 36.00 | 64.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Aaron Civale | Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | R | 15.8% | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 74 | short | full | 27.50 | 72.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start |
| JR Ritchie | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | R | 20.2% | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 77 | short | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 20.3% | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 40.50 | 59.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | R | 20.2% | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 97 | normal | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Edward Cabrera | Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | R | 20.6% | 3.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 65 | short | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 26.3% | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 92 | normal | full | 51.50 | 48.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 18.2% | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 13.00 | 87.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | L | 25.1% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 89 | normal | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Sullivan | Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox | L | 18.0% | 3.5 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 59 | short | full | 100.00 | 0.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | R | 23.7% | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 76 | short | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 21.3% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 94 | normal | full | 60.50 | 39.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 20.8% | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 70 | short | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.2% |
| Ryan Johnson | Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 16.7% | 2.6 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 44 | short | full | 17.50 | 82.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Justin Wrobleski | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | L | 17.5% | 5.6 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 94 | normal | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | R | 18.8% | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 111 | deep | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 22.4% | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 76 | short | full | 34.00 | 66.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Kendry Rojas | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 22.7% | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 47 | short | full | 55.50 | 44.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Kodai Senga | New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | R | 22.5% | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 55 | short | full | 33.50 | 66.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | L | 25.6% | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 94 | normal | full | 59.00 | 41.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | L | 25.8% | 5.9 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Mitch Keller | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners | R | 18.9% | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 79 | short | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Robbie Ray | San Francisco Giants vs Athletics | L | 22.1% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 35.50 | 64.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 21.3% | 5.4 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 91 | normal | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 20.4% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 80 | short | full | 20.00 | 80.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | L | 22.8% | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 76 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Cal Quantrill | Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | R | 16.4% | 2.2 | - | 5.0 | 37 | short | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.2 IP/start |
| Shane Bieber | Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | R | - | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | fallback+hand | season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| PJ Poulin | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 15.5% | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 24 | short | full | 22.00 | 78.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.4 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | Robbie Ray Under | Athletics @ San Francisco Giants | 17.5 | 13.0 | -4.5 | 25.8% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | short | 5.2 | 82 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Carlos Rodon | Carlos Rodon Under | New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 15.1 | -2.4 | 13.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.36 <= 3 min |
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Over | Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins | 18.5 | 20.6 | 2.1 | 11.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 16.4 | -1.1 | 6.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 92 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Shane Baz | Shane Baz Over | Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Over | Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 17.5 | 18.3 | 0.8 | 4.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Under | Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 16.7 | -0.8 | 4.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Parker Messick | Parker Messick Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 3.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Jesus Luzardo | Jesus Luzardo Over | Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals | 18.5 | 19.1 | 0.6 | 3.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 |
| Justin Wrobleski | Justin Wrobleski Over | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins | 17.5 | 17.9 | 0.3 | 2.0% | B | MONITOR | research | normal | 6.1 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -153, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade le… | K Prop | Carlos Rodon Over | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 7.5 | -153 | BetOnline Over 5.5 -149 | best price | 35.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Sean Sullivan Under | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 1.6 | -160 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -144 | best price | 54.6% | ✓✓!!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Ryan Johnson Under | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 4.5 | 3.1 | -144 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 31.6% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 94 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top… | K Prop | Justin Wrobleski Under | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.5 | -126 | BetRivers Under 4.5 -125 | best price | 22.6% | ✓✓!!–! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | K Prop | Sean Burke Under | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 5.2 | -151 | DK Under 6.5 -151 | exact | 20.2% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage | Pitcher Outs | Robbie Ray Under | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 17.5 | 13.0 | -123 | DK Under 17.5 -123 | exact | 25.8% | ✓✓!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Peter Lambert Under | AST@JAY | 4:08 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -110 | DK Under 5.5 -110 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Mitch Keller Over | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | +104 | DK Over 5.5 +104 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-177); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Brandon Sproat Over | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -177 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -175 | best price | 41.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Sean Burke Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -168 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price | 37.4% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Nick Lodolo Over | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -124 | DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact | 32.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Walks | Parker Messick Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -149 | DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact | 32.2% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Mitch Keller Over | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -155 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price | 27.1% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Edward Cabrera Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -191 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -180 | best price | 26.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Kodai Senga Over | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.7 | -172 | DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact | 80.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Edward Cabrera Over | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -167 | DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact | 66.7% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Burke Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -175 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price | 46.7% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Casey Mize Under | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -163 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Lodolo Over | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.2 | -118 | DK Over 2.5 -118 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Shane McClanahan Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -137 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 45.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 8.5 | -159 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -150 | best price | 54.6% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Shane Baz Over | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -117 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 19.6% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Civale Over | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | +105 | theScore Bet Over 5.5 +105 | best price | 16.4% | ✓✓✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Civale Over | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -109 | DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Civale Under | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 3.5 | 2.6 | -141 | FanDuel Under 3.5 -125 | best price | 25.6% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Sproat Over | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | -121 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -120 | best price | 19.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Parker Messick Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -121 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -102 | best price | 18.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Casey Mize Over | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -106 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +115 | best price | 17.4% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Lodolo Under | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | +129 | FanDuel Under 4.5 +138 | best price | 8.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sandy Alcantara Over | RAN@MAR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +122 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -175 | alt rescue | 5.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Robbie Ray Over | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -152 | BetRivers Over 5.5 -143 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Edward Cabrera Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | +118 | BetMGM Under 4.5 +120 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | +115 | BetMGM Under 3.5 +125 | best price | 3.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane McClanahan Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | +126 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -167 | alt rescue | 3.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | George Kirby Under | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -147 | DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | JR Ritchie Under | BRA@PAD | 9:40 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -154 | DK Under 4.5 -154 | exact | 3.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Luinder Avila Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | +119 | FanDuel Over 3.5 +130 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Bieber Under | AST@JAY | 4:08 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -135 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -122 | best price | 0.8% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.36 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Carlos Rodon Under | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 15.1 | -112 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -112 | best price | 13.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sandy Alcantara Over | RAN@MAR | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 20.6 | -104 | FanDuel Over 18.5 -104 | best price | 11.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 17.5 | 16.4 | +114 | Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115 | best price | 6.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shane Baz Over | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -135 | theScore Bet Over 17.5 -135 | best price | 6.3% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | George Kirby Over | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.3 | -141 | DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact | 4.6% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.7 | -103 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +102 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Parker Messick Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -115 | BetMGM Over 16.5 -130 | alt rescue | 3.8% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 18.5 | 19.1 | +127 | BetOnline Over 18 -115 | alt rescue | 3.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Justin Wrobleski Under | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | +102 | DK Under 5.5 +102 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -101 | BetMGM Under 5.5 +120 | best price | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sandy Alcantara Over | RAN@MAR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -159 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -150 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Lodolo Over | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -148 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +120 | DK Over 5.5 +120 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | +106 | DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | George Kirby Over | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.6 | +119 | theScore Bet Over 5.5 -160 | alt rescue | 1.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Shane Bieber Over | AST@JAY | 4:08 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +112 | DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact | 31.1% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Shane McClanahan Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +110 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price | 28.2% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Peter Lambert Over | AST@JAY | 4:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -147 | DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact | 18.9% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Leahy Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -133 | DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact | 18.8% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Luinder Avila Under | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 16.6% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Kodai Senga Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -103 | DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Jesus Luzardo Over | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -150 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price | 13.7% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Walks | Justin Wrobleski Under | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -158 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -155 | best price | 13.6% | ✓!!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | George Kirby Under | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -159 | DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Aaron Civale Under | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -146 | DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact | 10.7% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | JR Ritchie Under | BRA@PAD | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -186 | DK Under 2.5 -186 | exact | 8.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Casey Mize Over | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +106 | DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact | 8.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Shane Baz Under | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -205 | DK Under 2.5 -205 | exact | 8.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Robbie Ray Over | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +119 | DK Over 2.5 +119 | exact | 6.4% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Sonny Gray Over | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +109 | DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact | 6.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Sandy Alcantara Under | RAN@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -120 | DK Under 1.5 -120 | exact | 5.1% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Carlos Rodon Over | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +100 | theScore Bet Over 2.5 +100 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Johnson Over | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -135 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price | 3.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +145 | DK Over 2.5 +145 | exact | 3.1% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Pitcher Earned R | Parker Messick Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -145 | DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Carlos Rodon Under | YAN@TIG | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -147 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Luinder Avila Under | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -172 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Mitch Keller Over | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -119 | DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Jesus Luzardo Under | PHI@NAT | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -155 | DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Sandy Alcantara Over | RAN@MAR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -106 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Sonny Gray Under | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -122 | DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Johnson Over | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -142 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -135 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Leahy Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +112 | DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Peter Lambert Under | AST@JAY | 4:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | +116 | DK Under 2.5 +116 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | George Kirby Under | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -122 | DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Justin Wrobleski Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -112 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -110 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -117 | DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Over | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -104 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | JR Ritchie Under | BRA@PAD | 9:40 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -163 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Robbie Ray Over | ATH@GIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -102 | DK Over 2.5 -102 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Bieber Under | AST@JAY | 4:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -162 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Sproat Under | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -132 | DK Under 2.5 -132 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 26.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Peter Lambert Over | AST@JAY | 4:08 PM | 3.5 | 4.4 | -146 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -140 | best price | 26.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Mitch Keller Under | MAR@PIR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | -115 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -110 | best price | 15.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Sonny Gray Over | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -145 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -135 | best price | 13.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Leahy Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | -142 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price | 7.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kodai Senga Over | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -135 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -124 | best price | 5.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Justin Wrobleski Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 17.9 | -155 | BetOnline Over 17.5 -145 | best price | 2.0% | ✓✗✓✓–✓ | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script