| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 293 | 56% | -4.78u | 62 | 53% | -2.69u | 136 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 246 | 58% | +8.09u | 67 | 49% | -9.13u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 13 | 69% | +2.44u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 512 | 75% | +2.73u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 158 | 60% | +4.46u | 102 | 59% | -1.28u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 114 | 59% | -4.69u | 69 | 52% | -11.26u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 13 | 69% | -0.11u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 5 | 60% | +0.50u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 84 | 44% | -12.30u | 9 | 67% | +1.44u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 8 | 43% | -1.23u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 75 | 57% | -0.43u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 4/5 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 2/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 75.5 | 68.4 | 91.5 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 30.0%, xwOBA 0.232, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | 74.7 | 85.5 | 70.5 | 6 | Changeup (65% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 37.8%, put-away 26.3%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | 62.1 | 56.5 | 72.5 | 6 | Changeup (45% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tim Mayza | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 60.4 | 55.5 | 69.5 | 4 | Slider (26% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | 58.5 | 62.4 | 58.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (43% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | 57.6 | 39.7 | 78.5 | 5 | Slider (36% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.258, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Woodruff | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | 57.0 | 46.9 | 67.5 | 6 | Changeup (40% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | 53.9 | 59.9 | 48.0 | 5 | Curveball (49% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | 52.4 | 66.7 | 41.0 | 5 | Sweeper (42% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | 52.2 | 55.2 | 49.5 | 4 | Curveball (43% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | 51.4 | 39.9 | 63.0 | 6 | Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.7 | 46.5 | 55.0 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.6 | 43.6 | 57.5 | 5 | Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kodai Senga | New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | 49.8 | 66.5 | 33.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | 48.3 | 48.4 | 49.0 | 6 | Changeup (29% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | 47.4 | 50.9 | 45.5 | 7 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | 47.4 | 30.6 | 63.0 | 5 | Changeup (22% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 16.2%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | 47.0 | 55.6 | 38.5 | 6 | Slider (41% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | 44.3 | 52.1 | 38.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | 42.4 | 41.9 | 43.5 | 5 | Curveball (32% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sam Aldegheri | Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | 39.9 | 30.4 | 46.5 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 11.7%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | 37.1 | 44.8 | 24.0 | 5 | Sweeper (41% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.367, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox | 36.5 | 50.1 | 24.0 | 6 | Changeup (57% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.367, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | 35.4 | 41.8 | 26.0 | 6 | Sweeper (30% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | 35.0 | 36.4 | 30.0 | 5 | Cutter (26% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | 23.9 | 40.2 | 3.5 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.408, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 13.7% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 94 | normal | full | 3.50 | 96.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | R | 21.5% | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 69 | short | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 23.5% | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 94 | normal | full | 49.50 | 50.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | L | 18.8% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 84 | short | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | L | 22.7% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 18.2% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 80 | short | full | 26.00 | 74.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Brady Singer | Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 19.5% | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 80 | short | full | 24.00 | 76.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9% |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | R | 27.0% | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 101 | deep | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ryan Feltner | Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox | R | 20.5% | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 76 | short | full | 24.00 | 76.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Framber Valdez | Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | L | 18.2% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 43.50 | 56.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Hunter Brown | Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 29.7% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | 91.50 | 8.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Michael Wacha | Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 16.7% | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 101 | deep | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5%, low-K contact opponent 19.1% |
| Sam Aldegheri | Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 17.9% | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 60 | short | full | 46.50 | 53.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | L | 17.3% | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 89 | normal | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tyler Phillips | Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | R | 19.8% | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 72 | short | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Brandon Woodruff | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 20.7% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Zebby Matthews | Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 19.6% | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Kodai Senga | New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | R | 22.5% | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 55 | short | full | 33.50 | 66.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Gerrit Cole | New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | R | 21.9% | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 92 | normal | full | 78.50 | 21.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Tim Mayza | Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | L | 27.0% | 1.4 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 24 | short | full | 69.50 | 30.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.4 IP/start |
| Michael King | San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | R | 17.8% | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 86 | short | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Andre Pallante | St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 19.7% | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 91 | normal | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.9% |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | R | 29.7% | 6.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 107 | deep | full | 72.50 | 27.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tyler Alexander | Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | L | 20.6% | 1.2 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 20 | short | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.2 IP/start |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | R | 36.6% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Foster Griffin | Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 23.2% | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 94 | normal | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | Drew Rasmussen Over | Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 20.5 | 3.0 | 17.2% | B | GOOD_ADD | research | deep | 6.0 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk |
| Gavin Williams | Gavin Williams Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | 17.5 | 20.1 | 2.6 | 14.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min |
| Merrill Kelly | Merrill Kelly Under | Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 15.1 | -2.4 | 14.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.44 <= 3 min |
| Hunter Brown | Hunter Brown Under | Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 15.1 | -2.4 | 13.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.5 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.43 <= 3 min |
| Andre Pallante | Andre Pallante Under | Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals | 17.5 | 15.7 | -1.8 | 10.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.5 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min |
| Michael King | Michael King Under | Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres | 17.5 | 15.7 | -1.8 | 10.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.5 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.78 <= 3 min |
| Dylan Cease | Dylan Cease Over | Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 8.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Kyle Bradish | Kyle Bradish Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels | 17.5 | 16.6 | -0.9 | 5.2% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
| Michael Wacha | Michael Wacha Over | Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.7 | 4.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: juiced K over -136 | K Prop | Drew Rasmussen Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 7.0 | -136 | DK Over 5.5 -136 | exact | 27.5% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Outs | Drew Rasmussen Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 20.5 | -171 | BetOnline Over 17.5 -165 | best price | 17.2% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Feltner Under | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 6.5 | 3.6 | -162 | DK Under 6.5 -162 | exact | 44.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Tyler Phillips Under | RAN@MAR | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.3 | -160 | DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Andre Pallante Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -133 | DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -194 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price | 49.1% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over | Pitcher Walks | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -208 | DK Over 1.5 -208 | exact | 46.2% | ✓✓!!–! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Michael King Over | BRA@PAD | 10:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -157 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price | 41.5% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Walks | Drew Rasmussen Under | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -216 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -215 | best price | 34.6% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Grant Holmes Over | BRA@PAD | 10:10 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -171 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price | 33.4% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Zebby Matthews Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -141 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price | 25.5% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-191); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Samuel Aldegheri Under | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -191 | DK Under 2.5 -191 | exact | 25.5% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Kodai Senga Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -104 | DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact | 22.5% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Andre Pallante Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -170 | DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact | 21.3% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Hunter Brown Under | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -192 | DK Under 2.5 -192 | exact | 20.2% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 4.0 | -138 | DK Over 2.5 -138 | exact | 60.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over | Pitcher Earned R | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -176 | DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact | 53.3% | ✓✓!!–! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Hunter Brown Under | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -146 | DK Under 2.5 -146 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Woodruff Under | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -161 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Brady Singer Under | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -160 | DK Under 3.5 -160 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► SMALL PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A (Weak) | ◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B | Pitcher Walks | Anthony Kay Under | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -147 | DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact | 31.8% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | SMALL PLAY |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Ryan Feltner Over | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.6 | -120 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -108 | best price | 30.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 46.7% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Hunter Brown Over | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 5.5 | 6.5 | -118 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price | 18.7% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books) | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 6.5 | 9.6 | -142 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -134 | best price | 47.6% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Samuel Aldegheri Under | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | +123 | BetRivers Under 4.5 -175 | alt rescue | 18.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.7 | +117 | theScore Bet Over 4.5 +110 | alt rescue | 18.1% | ✓✓✗!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Bennett Over | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.1 | +113 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -175 | alt rescue | 16.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Anthony Kay Under | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | +117 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -175 | alt rescue | 16.6% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Zebby Matthews Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | +107 | DK Over 4.5 +107 | exact | 12.4% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Grant Holmes Over | BRA@PAD | 10:10 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | +117 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue | 11.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Bradish Over | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | -111 | BetOnline Over 6.5 -103 | best price | 4.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Woodruff Under | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -152 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | best price | 3.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Tyler Phillips Over | RAN@MAR | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +114 | BetOnline Over 4.5 +125 | best price | 3.7% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Brady Singer Under | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -118 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -112 | best price | 3.4% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Foster Griffin Over | PHI@NAT | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -101 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 2.2% | ✓✗✗!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Merrill Kelly Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -106 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -175 | alt rescue | 0.8% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Over | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +112 | DK Over 5.5 +112 | exact | 0.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 20.1 | -112 | DK Over 17.5 -112 | exact | 14.6% | ✓✗✗!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.44 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Merrill Kelly Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 17.5 | 15.1 | +112 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +115 | best price | 14.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.43 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Hunter Brown Under | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 15.1 | +115 | theScore Bet Under 17.5 +115 | best price | 13.9% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Andre Pallante Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 17.5 | 15.7 | -105 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +100 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.78 <= 3 min — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael King Under | BRA@PAD | 10:10 PM | 17.5 | 15.7 | +102 | DK Under 17.5 +102 | exact | 10.1% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Dylan Cease Over | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 17.5 | 19.0 | -139 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -138 | best price | 8.3% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kyle Bradish Under | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 17.5 | 16.6 | +115 | DK Under 17.5 +115 | exact | 5.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -145 | DK Over 17.5 -145 | exact | 4.1% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Jake Bennett Under | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | +104 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -155 | alt rescue | 16.4% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Zebby Matthews Over | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | -128 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | best price | 9.1% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Wacha Under | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.2 | -152 | DK Under 6.5 -152 | exact | 4.6% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Brady Singer Over | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.7 | -115 | DK Over 5.5 -115 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Merrill Kelly Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | -165 | DK Under 6.5 -165 | exact | 1.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +118 | DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact | 29.4% | ✓✓✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Tyler Phillips Over | RAN@MAR | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -119 | DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact | 22.1% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Brady Singer Over | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -176 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -175 | best price | 13.1% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Shota Imanaga Over | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -123 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price | 7.4% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Brandon Woodruff Over | BRE@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +118 | DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact | 5.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Feltner Over | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -110 | DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact | 4.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Dylan Cease Under | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | 3.4% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jake Bennett Over | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +123 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price | 2.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Zebby Matthews Under | DOD@TWI | 7:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -164 | DK Under 3.5 -164 | exact | 17.1% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -137 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Samuel Aldegheri Under | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | +112 | DK Under 2.5 +112 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Tyler Phillips Under | RAN@MAR | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -139 | DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Bennett Under | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | +118 | DK Under 2.5 +118 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Bradish Under | ORI@ANG | 9:39 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Michael King Over | BRA@PAD | 10:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +117 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Anthony Kay Over | GUA@SOX | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +132 | DK Over 2.5 +132 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Andre Pallante Under | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -145 | DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Feltner Under | SOX@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | +120 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -155 | alt rescue | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Grant Holmes Under | BRA@PAD | 10:10 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -165 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kodai Senga Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -126 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Drew Rasmussen Under | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -116 | BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Dylan Cease Under | AST@JAY | 7:08 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +121 | DK Under 1.5 +121 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shota Imanaga Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Wacha Over | ROY@RAY | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | -139 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price | 11.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Andre Pallante Over | DIA@CAR | 7:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -139 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -132 | best price | 3.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael King Over | BRA@PAD | 10:10 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | -135 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -128 | best price | 3.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Kodai Senga Under | CUB@MET | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -113 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -102 | best price | 2.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script