MLB Full Audit Monday, June 22 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	293	56%	-4.78u	62	53%	-2.69u	136	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	246	58%	+8.09u	67	49%	-9.13u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	13	69%	+2.44u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	512	75%	+2.73u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	158	60%	+4.46u	102	59%	-1.28u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	114	59%	-4.69u	69	52%	-11.26u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	13	69%	-0.11u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	5	60%	+0.50u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	84	44%	-12.30u	9	67%	+1.44u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	8	43%	-1.23u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	75	57%	-0.43u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	4/5	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

23 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	75.5	68.4	91.5	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 30.0%, xwOBA 0.232, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals	62.1	56.5	72.5	6	Changeup (45% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets	58.5	62.4	58.0	5	Split-Finger (43% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers	57.6	39.7	78.5	5	Slider (36% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.258, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers	53.9	59.9	48.0	5	Curveball (49% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	52.4	66.7	41.0	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 30.0%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	52.2	55.2	49.5	4	Curveball (43% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies	51.4	39.9	63.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	50.7	46.5	55.0	6	Slider (40% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	50.6	43.6	57.5	5	Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kodai Senga	New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs	49.8	66.5	33.5	6	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays	48.3	48.4	49.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	47.4	50.9	45.5	7	Sweeper (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	47.0	55.6	38.5	6	Slider (41% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	44.3	52.1	38.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees	42.4	41.9	43.5	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sam Aldegheri	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	39.9	30.4	46.5	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 11.7%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins	39.8	44.4	34.0	5	Slider (35% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.347, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	37.1	44.8	24.0	5	Sweeper (41% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.367, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox	36.5	50.1	24.0	6	Changeup (57% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.367, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	35.4	41.8	26.0	6	Sweeper (30% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins	35.0	36.4	30.0	5	Cutter (26% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	23.9	40.2	3.5	6	Slider (34% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.408, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

23 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	13.7%	5.6	5.8	5.8	94	normal	full	3.50	96.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	R	21.5%	4.1	4.9	4.7	69	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	R	23.5%	5.6	5.4	5.4	94	normal	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies	L	18.8%	5.0	5.2	5.4	84	short	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets	L	22.7%	5.5	5.8	5.7	92	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	L	18.2%	4.8	4.9	4.9	80	short	full	26.00	74.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	19.5%	4.8	4.7	4.7	80	short	full	24.00	76.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	R	27.0%	6.0	6.1	6.1	101	deep	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox	R	20.5%	4.5	4.6	4.6	76	short	full	24.00	76.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees	L	18.2%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	29.7%	5.1	5.4	5.5	86	short	full	91.50	8.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	16.7%	6.0	6.3	6.2	101	deep	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Sam Aldegheri	Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles	L	17.9%	3.6	4.0	4.9	60	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins	L	17.3%	5.3	4.9	5.0	89	normal	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers	R	19.8%	4.3	4.4	5.0	72	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	19.6%	6.0	6.2	6.0	101	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Kodai Senga	New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs	R	22.5%	3.3	4.0	4.4	55	short	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers	R	21.9%	5.5	5.6	5.6	92	normal	full	78.50	21.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	R	17.8%	5.1	5.7	5.5	86	short	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	19.7%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals	R	29.7%	6.4	5.7	6.0	107	deep	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins	R	18.6%	4.7	4.7	4.7	79	short	full	34.00	66.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	23.2%	5.6	5.6	5.6	94	normal	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

11/11 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	20.5	3.0	17.2%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.0	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	20.1	2.6	14.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min
Merrill Kelly	Merrill Kelly Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	15.1	-2.4	14.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.44 <= 3 min
Hunter Brown	Hunter Brown Under	Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	15.1	-2.4	13.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.43 <= 3 min
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	15.7	-1.8	10.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.81 <= 3 min
Andre Pallante	Andre Pallante Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	15.7	-1.8	10.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min
Michael King	Michael King Under	Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres	17.5	15.7	-1.8	10.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.78 <= 3 min
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Under	New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	15.8	-1.8	10.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kyle Bradish	Kyle Bradish Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	16.6	-0.9	5.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays	18.5	19.0	0.5	2.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

64 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► BEST PLAYS
A	✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -140	K Prop	Drew Rasmussen Over	ROY@RAY	6:41 PM	5.5	7.1	-140	FanDuel Over 5.5 -140 \| best price	28.4%	✓✓✓✓––	BEST PLAY
► GOOD ADDS
B	🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration	K Prop	Samuel Aldegheri Under	ORI@ANG	9:39 PM	4.5	2.6	-142	DK Under 4.5 -142 \| exact	41.9%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 106 vs RHP — neutral \| Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks \| [!] Weather:…	K Prop	Gavin Williams Over	GUA@SOX	7:41 PM	5.5	7.7	-152	DK Over 5.5 -152 \| exact	40.2%	✓✓✓!–!	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration	K Prop	Brandon Woodruff Under	BRE@RED	7:11 PM	5.5	4.0	-148	DK Under 5.5 -148 \| exact	27.4%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Hunter Brown Over	AST@JAY	7:08 PM	5.5	6.5	-117	DK Over 5.5 -117 \| exact	18.4%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.07x)	Pitcher Outs	Drew Rasmussen Over	ROY@RAY	6:41 PM	17.5	20.5	-180	FanDuel Over 17.5 -172 \| best price	17.2%	✓✓✓––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Ryan Feltner Under	SOX@ROC	8:41 PM	5.5	3.6	+111	DK Under 5.5 +111 \| exact	34.5%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Hits All	Tyler Phillips Under	RAN@MAR	6:41 PM	5.5	4.2	-148	DK Under 5.5 -148 \| exact	23.6%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.07x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Hits All	Andre Pallante Under	DIA@CAR	7:46 PM	5.5	4.4	-141	Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -135 \| best price	20.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.07x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Earned R	Merrill Kelly Over	DIA@CAR	7:46 PM	2.5	4.0	-142	DK Over 2.5 -142 \| exact	60.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Ryan Feltner Under	SOX@ROC	8:41 PM	3.5	2.3	-151	DK Under 3.5 -151 \| exact	34.3%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Earned R	Hunter Brown Under	AST@JAY	7:08 PM	2.5	1.7	-153	DK Under 2.5 -153 \| exact	32.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Eric Lauer Over	DOD@TWI	7:41 PM	2.5	3.1	-129	DK Over 2.5 -129 \| exact	24.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Earned R	Gerrit Cole Under	YAN@TIG	6:11 PM	2.5	2.0	-156	BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 \| best price	20.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 46.3% (6 books) \| consensus 60% (6 books) — posture note at C	K Prop	Ryan Feltner Over	SOX@ROC	8:41 PM	3.5	4.6	+100	DK Over 3.5 +100 \| exact	32.5%	✓✓✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (6 books) \| consensus 60% (6 books)	K Prop	Dylan Cease Over	AST@JAY	7:08 PM	6.5	9.2	-136	FanDuel Over 6.5 -124 \| best price	42.4%	✓✓✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Jake Bennett Over	SOX@ROC	8:41 PM	3.5	4.2	+111	DK Over 3.5 +111 \| exact	19.0%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Anthony Kay Under	GUA@SOX	7:41 PM	4.5	3.8	+119	BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 \| alt rescue	16.6%	✓✗✗✓–✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Eric Lauer Under	DOD@TWI	7:41 PM	3.5	2.9	+121	DK Under 3.5 +121 \| exact	16.2%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Zebby Matthews Over	DOD@TWI	7:41 PM	4.5	5.1	-109	BetOnline Over 4.5 +104 \| best price	13.1%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Grant Holmes Over	BRA@PAD	10:10 PM	4.5	5.0	+121	theScore Bet Over 2.5 +140 \| alt rescue	11.6%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Kumar Rocker Under	RAN@MAR	6:41 PM	4.5	4.0	-150	BetMGM Under 4.5 -125 \| best price	10.2%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Framber Valdez Under	YAN@TIG	6:11 PM	5.5	5.0	-159	Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -135 \| best price	8.4%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael Wacha Under	ROY@RAY	6:41 PM	4.5	4.2	-157	DK Under 4.5 -157 \| exact	7.4%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Brady Singer Under	BRE@RED	7:11 PM	4.5	4.3	-106	DK Under 4.5 -106 \| exact	5.0%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Gerrit Cole Under	YAN@TIG	6:11 PM	5.5	5.3	-110	BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 \| best price	4.4%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael King Over	BRA@PAD	10:10 PM	4.5	4.6	-151	BetMGM Over 4.5 -125 \| best price	3.1%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Kodai Senga Under	CUB@MET	7:11 PM	4.5	4.4	+119	DK Under 4.5 +119 \| exact	2.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Andre Pallante Over	DIA@CAR	7:46 PM	3.5	3.6	-127	BetOnline Over 3.5 -119 \| best price	2.6%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Tyler Phillips Over	RAN@MAR	6:41 PM	4.5	4.6	-111	FanDuel Over 4.5 +106 \| best price	1.7%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Foster Griffin Over	PHI@NAT	6:46 PM	5.5	5.6	+117	DK Over 5.5 +117 \| exact	1.6%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Kyle Bradish Under	ORI@ANG	9:39 PM	6.5	6.4	-109	DK Under 6.5 -109 \| exact	1.5%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Shota Imanaga Under	CUB@MET	7:11 PM	5.5	5.4	-118	DK Under 5.5 -118 \| exact	1.2%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Merrill Kelly Over	DIA@CAR	7:46 PM	3.5	3.5	-104	DK Over 3.5 -104 \| exact	0.9%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.56 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Gavin Williams Over	GUA@SOX	7:41 PM	17.5	20.1	-104	theScore Bet Over 17.5 +100 \| best price	14.6%	✓✗✗!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.44 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Merrill Kelly Under	DIA@CAR	7:46 PM	17.5	15.1	+109	BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 \| best price	14.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.43 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Hunter Brown Under	AST@JAY	7:08 PM	17.5	15.1	+119	Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 \| best price	13.9%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.81 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Framber Valdez Under	YAN@TIG	6:11 PM	17.5	15.7	+122	Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 \| best price	10.4%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Andre Pallante Under	DIA@CAR	7:46 PM	17.5	15.7	-110	BetMGM Under 17.5 +105 \| best price	10.2%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.78 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Michael King Under	BRA@PAD	10:10 PM	17.5	15.7	+107	BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 \| best price	10.1%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Gerrit Cole Under	YAN@TIG	6:11 PM	17.5	15.8	+106	FanDuel Under 17.5 +112 \| best price	10.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Michael Wacha Over	ROY@RAY	6:41 PM	17.5	18.6	-148	FanDuel Over 17.5 -148 \| best price	6.3%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Kyle Bradish Under	ORI@ANG	9:39 PM	17.5	16.6	+101	DK Under 17.5 +101 \| exact	5.2%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Dylan Cease Over	AST@JAY	7:08 PM	18.5	19.0	+104	theScore Bet Over 17.5 -140 \| alt rescue	2.5%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) \| consensus 67% (4 books)	Pitcher Hits All	Jake Bennett Under	SOX@ROC	8:41 PM	5.5	4.6	+112	BetMGM Under 6.5 -155 \| alt rescue	16.4%	✓✓✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Pitcher Hits All	Eric Lauer Under	DOD@TWI	7:41 PM	5.5	4.7	-149	DK Under 5.5 -149 \| exact	14.5%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Michael Wacha Over	ROY@RAY	6:41 PM	5.5	6.2	-136	BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 \| best price	12.7%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Zebby Matthews Over	DOD@TWI	7:41 PM	5.5	6.0	-123	BetMGM Over 5.5 -120 \| best price	9.1%	✓✗✓––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Framber Valdez Under	YAN@TIG	6:11 PM	5.5	5.3	-137	BetMGM Under 5.5 -125 \| best price	3.6%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Merrill Kelly Under	DIA@CAR	7:46 PM	6.5	6.4	-160	DK Under 6.5 -160 \| exact	1.5%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.07x)	Pitcher Earned R	Michael Wacha Over	ROY@RAY	6:41 PM	2.5	2.9	-131	BetMGM Over 2.5 -115 \| best price	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Zebby Matthews Over	DOD@TWI	7:41 PM	2.5	2.9	-154	DK Over 2.5 -154 \| exact	16.0%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Earned R	Tyler Phillips Under	RAN@MAR	6:41 PM	2.5	2.2	-143	DK Under 2.5 -143 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Jake Bennett Under	SOX@ROC	8:41 PM	2.5	2.2	+113	BetMGM Under 2.5 +115 \| best price	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (2 books) \| books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree	Pitcher Earned R	Michael King Over	BRA@PAD	10:10 PM	2.5	2.8	+118	BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 \| best price	12.0%	✓!✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Framber Valdez Over	YAN@TIG	6:11 PM	2.5	2.7	+114	DK Over 2.5 +114 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Anthony Kay Over	GUA@SOX	7:41 PM	2.5	2.7	+117	BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 \| best price	8.0%	✓✗✗!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Andre Pallante Under	DIA@CAR	7:46 PM	2.5	2.3	-154	DK Under 2.5 -154 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Kyle Bradish Under	ORI@ANG	9:39 PM	2.5	2.3	-144	DK Under 2.5 -144 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Grant Holmes Under	BRA@PAD	10:10 PM	2.5	2.3	-165	DK Under 2.5 -165 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Dylan Cease Over	AST@JAY	7:08 PM	1.5	1.6	-139	DK Over 1.5 -139 \| exact	6.7%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Kumar Rocker Under	RAN@MAR	6:41 PM	2.5	2.4	-118	DK Under 2.5 -118 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Drew Rasmussen Under	ROY@RAY	6:41 PM	1.5	1.5	-119	BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 \| best price	-	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Gavin Williams Under	GUA@SOX	7:41 PM	2.5	2.3	-163	BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 \| best price	8.0%	✓✗!✓–✓	MONITOR

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script