MLB Full Audit Sunday, June 21 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	288	56%	-5.44u	59	53%	-3.42u	134	60%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	243	58%	+7.39u	70	51%	-6.83u	3	33%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	138	54%	-3.08u	15	60%	+0.44u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	627	72%	-9.06u	577	74%	-6.44u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	148	59%	+3.11u	98	55%	-6.72u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	110	59%	-3.75u	71	56%	-6.50u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	13	69%	-0.11u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	31	55%	+0.66u	5	60%	+0.50u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	84	44%	-12.30u	9	67%	+1.44u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	50	38%	-10.52u	8	43%	-1.23u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	484	50%	-56.69u	77	58%	+0.95u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	4/5	14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

30 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs	74.7	85.5	70.5	6	Changeup (65% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 37.8%, put-away 26.3%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees	69.4	72.2	73.0	3	Slider (53% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics	66.5	60.8	76.0	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners	65.5	53.9	79.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 49% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	61.9	58.2	70.5	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves	59.9	52.1	64.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (40% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays	58.5	62.4	58.0	5	Split-Finger (43% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles	57.8	63.4	55.0	4	Slider (40% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	57.0	58.8	56.0	6	Changeup (43% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers	55.5	48.1	66.0	5	Slider (32% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies	55.0	75.5	33.0	4	Curveball (47% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 33.6%, put-away 24.6%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox	54.8	63.2	51.0	6	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	54.6	60.1	53.0	6	Slider (46% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals	54.2	48.1	63.0	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres	53.3	64.2	44.0	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Stephen Kolek	Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals	51.3	42.2	62.0	6	Slider (46% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kai-Wei Teng	Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians	51.2	59.0	44.0	6	Curveball (48% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins	49.1	44.4	56.5	5	Changeup (31% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays	47.2	55.4	39.5	5	Slider (38% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Mike Paredes	Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks	45.4	42.1	51.0	4	Changeup (26% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros	45.3	45.2	44.5	7	Curveball (35% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Wandy Peralta	San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers	45.3	42.4	48.0	4	Changeup (32% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	44.4	33.4	56.5	5	Changeup (24% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	44.2	48.4	38.0	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers	43.2	42.4	45.5	5	Slider (42% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals	38.5	36.4	43.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates	37.2	43.0	26.0	7	Changeup (34% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Elmer Rodríguez	New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds	36.3	50.3	18.0	6	Slider (50% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 9.2%, xwOBA 0.379, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants	29.1	35.9	15.0	7	Changeup (32% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.385, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Jose Cabrera	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

30 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Jose Cabrera	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins	R	21.5%	-	5.2	5.2	87	short	missing	50.00	50.00	season+hand	season leash 5.2 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	R	25.2%	3.9	4.3	5.0	65	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	18.0%	5.1	5.9	5.8	86	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	17.5%	6.3	5.7	5.8	106	deep	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners	L	24.7%	5.4	5.8	6.0	91	normal	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	22.7%	5.5	5.8	5.7	92	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	R	23.2%	4.9	5.8	6.0	82	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees	R	31.9%	5.4	5.8	5.7	91	normal	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros	R	20.1%	5.1	5.2	5.2	86	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	19.8%	4.3	4.6	4.6	72	short	full	26.00	74.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	R	17.7%	4.7	5.6	5.4	79	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Kai-Wei Teng	Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians	R	24.5%	4.6	4.3	4.6	77	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Stephen Kolek	Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.4%	6.6	6.3	6.3	111	deep	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics	L	30.2%	6.6	5.9	6.0	111	deep	full	76.00	24.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Emmet Sheehan	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles	R	25.4%	4.4	5.0	4.8	74	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants	R	19.2%	2.6	3.6	4.6	44	short	full	15.00	85.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.6 IP/start
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves	L	22.4%	4.7	4.8	5.2	79	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Mike Paredes	Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	19.4%	3.4	3.8	5.0	57	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 20.0%
David Peterson	New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	17.4%	4.0	4.8	4.8	67	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Elmer Rodríguez	New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds	R	16.5%	4.1	4.3	5.1	69	short	full	18.00	82.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	R	26.2%	6.2	6.3	6.2	104	deep	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies	R	22.8%	4.3	4.3	5.0	72	short	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Wandy Peralta	San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers	L	18.2%	1.1	1.0	4.4	18	short	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.1 IP/start
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins	R	21.6%	6.2	6.3	6.3	104	deep	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox	R	27.9%	5.9	5.8	6.0	99	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dustin May	St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals	R	26.1%	6.5	5.8	6.0	109	deep	full	63.00	37.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals	R	13.8%	5.8	5.9	5.9	97	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nathan Eovaldi	Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres	R	22.1%	6.4	6.2	6.3	107	deep	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs	R	36.6%	5.4	5.6	5.6	91	normal	full	70.50	29.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	22.5%	3.3	4.2	4.9	55	short	full	39.50	60.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.0%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi Over	San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers	18.5	21.0	2.5	13.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.47 <= 3 min
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	20.9	2.4	13.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.40 <= 3 min
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins	18.5	20.5	2.0	11.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.04 <= 3 min
Dustin May	Dustin May Over	St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	19.2	1.7	9.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	109	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics	17.5	19.2	1.7	9.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nick Martinez	Nick Martinez Under	Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Over	Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	18.7	0.2	1.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

93 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► GOOD ADDS
B	✅ Good Add Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral \| [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks	K Prop	Ryan Gusto Under	GIA@MAR	1:41 PM	4.5	2.4	-157	DK Under 4.5 -157 \| exact	47.1%	✓✓!!––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup	K Prop	Michael Lorenzen Over	PIR@ROC	3:11 PM	3.5	4.6	-136	DK Over 3.5 -136 \| exact	31.9%	✓✓✓!––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Reid Detmers Under	ANG@ATH	4:06 PM	5.5	3.2	-114	DK Under 5.5 -114 \| exact	41.8%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Hits All	Ryan Gusto Under	GIA@MAR	1:41 PM	5.5	4.6	-118	DK Under 5.5 -118 \| exact	16.4%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add	Pitcher Hits All	Robert Gasser Under	BRE@BRA	1:36 PM	5.5	4.7	-127	BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 \| best price	14.5%	✓!✓–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-218); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Nick Martinez Under	NAT@RAY	1:41 PM	1.5	0.9	-218	DK Under 1.5 -218 \| exact	41.6%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Gusto Under	GIA@MAR	1:41 PM	1.5	1.0	-125	DK Under 1.5 -125 \| exact	31.2%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-172); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Walks	Bryce Elder Over	BRE@BRA	1:36 PM	1.5	1.9	-172	DK Over 1.5 -172 \| exact	26.2%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Logan Gilbert Over	SOX@MAR	4:11 PM	1.5	2.1	-133	DK Over 1.5 -133 \| exact	40.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-176); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Payton Tolle Over	SOX@MAR	4:11 PM	1.5	2.1	-176	BetMGM Over 1.5 -165 \| best price	40.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Chase Burns Under	RED@YAN	1:36 PM	2.5	1.7	-160	BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 \| best price	32.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Zack Wheeler Over	MET@PHI	7:21 PM	1.5	1.9	-164	DK Over 1.5 -164 \| exact	26.7%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Brandon Young Under	ORI@DOD	4:11 PM	3.5	2.6	-147	DK Under 3.5 -147 \| exact	25.7%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Pitcher Earned R	Andrew Alvarez Under	NAT@RAY	1:41 PM	2.5	1.9	-156	DK Under 2.5 -156 \| exact	24.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Earned R	Mike Paredes Under	TWI@DIA	3:16 PM	2.5	1.9	-151	DK Under 2.5 -151 \| exact	24.0%	✓✓!––!	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Reid Detmers Under	ANG@ATH	4:06 PM	2.5	1.9	+104	BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 \| best price	24.0%	✓✓!–––	GOOD ADD
B	👀 Watch	Pitcher Earned R	Michael Lorenzen Under	PIR@ROC	3:11 PM	3.5	2.9	-146	BetMGM Under 3.5 -145 \| best price	17.1%	✓!!––✓	GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.8% (7 books) \| consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C	K Prop	Dylan Cease Over	JAY@CUB	2:21 PM	6.5	9.9	-152	Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -130 \| best price	52.8%	✓✓✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)	↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (7 books) \| consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi Over	PAD@RAN	2:36 PM	5.5	7.0	-122	BetRivers Over 5.5 -109 \| best price	28.0%	✓✓✗✓–✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Brandon Young Over	ORI@DOD	4:11 PM	3.5	4.5	-145	BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 \| best price	28.0%	✓✗✓!––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (7 books) \| books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree	K Prop	Reid Detmers Over	ANG@ATH	4:06 PM	6.5	8.2	-108	DK Over 6.5 -108 \| exact	26.3%	✓✓✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Dustin May Over	CAR@ROY	2:11 PM	4.5	5.5	-160	DK Over 4.5 -160 \| exact	21.2%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D	K Prop	Stephen Kolek Over	CAR@ROY	2:11 PM	3.5	4.2	-107	BetMGM Over 3.5 +105 \| best price	20.4%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Elmer Rodriguez Over	RED@YAN	1:36 PM	3.5	4.0	-143	BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 \| best price	14.4%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Kai-Wei Teng Under	GUA@AST	2:11 PM	5.5	4.8	-121	FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 \| best price	12.5%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	David Peterson Under	MET@PHI	7:21 PM	4.5	4.0	+106	BetOnline Under 4.5 +109 \| best price	12.2%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Chase Burns Over	RED@YAN	1:36 PM	7.5	8.3	+114	BetOnline Over 7.5 +120 \| best price	11.4%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Davis Martin Over	SOX@TIG	1:41 PM	5.5	6.0	+127	BetRivers Over 4.5 -165 \| alt rescue	10.0%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Logan Gilbert Over	SOX@MAR	4:11 PM	7.5	8.0	+122	BetMGM Over 6.5 -115 \| alt rescue	6.9%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Bryce Elder Over	BRE@BRA	1:36 PM	4.5	4.8	+101	BetRivers Over 4.5 +120 \| best price	5.6%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Jared Jones Over	PIR@ROC	3:11 PM	5.5	5.8	+113	BetOnline Over 5.5 +128 \| best price	5.2%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Jack Perkins Under	ANG@ATH	4:06 PM	5.5	5.2	-125	DK Under 5.5 -125 \| exact	4.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Andrew Alvarez Under	NAT@RAY	1:41 PM	3.5	3.4	+131	BetRivers Under 4.5 -157 \| alt rescue	1.9%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Slade Cecconi Over	GUA@AST	2:11 PM	4.5	4.6	+132	BetRivers Over 3.5 -167 \| alt rescue	1.8%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Emmet Sheehan Under	ORI@DOD	4:11 PM	6.5	6.4	-106	DK Under 6.5 -106 \| exact	1.2%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Robert Gasser Under	BRE@BRA	1:36 PM	4.5	4.5	-166	BetRivers Under 4.5 -159 \| best price	1.1%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Zack Wheeler Over	MET@PHI	7:21 PM	6.5	6.5	-128	FanDuel Over 6.5 -115 \| best price	0.7%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.3% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.47 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Nathan Eovaldi Over	PAD@RAN	2:36 PM	18.5	21.0	+102	BetMGM Over 18.5 +105 \| best price	13.3%	✓✗✗✓–✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.40 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Zack Wheeler Over	MET@PHI	7:21 PM	18.5	20.9	+130	FanDuel Over 18.5 +148 \| best price	13.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.04 <= 3 min — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Logan Webb Over	GIA@MAR	1:41 PM	18.5	20.5	+102	DK Over 18.5 +102 \| exact	11.0%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Dustin May Over	CAR@ROY	2:11 PM	17.5	19.2	-155	FanDuel Over 17.5 -148 \| best price	9.9%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Reid Detmers Over	ANG@ATH	4:06 PM	17.5	19.2	-106	DK Over 17.5 -106 \| exact	9.6%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Nick Martinez Under	NAT@RAY	1:41 PM	17.5	16.9	-117	BetMGM Under 17.5 +105 \| best price	3.4%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Logan Gilbert Over	SOX@MAR	4:11 PM	18.5	18.7	+127	BetOnline Over 18 +100 \| alt rescue	1.1%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Logan Webb Under	GIA@MAR	1:41 PM	5.5	4.8	+106	BetMGM Under 6.5 -155 \| alt rescue	12.7%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Andrew Alvarez Under	NAT@RAY	1:41 PM	5.5	4.8	-147	DK Under 5.5 -147 \| exact	12.7%	✓✗✓–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Nick Martinez Over	NAT@RAY	1:41 PM	5.5	6.2	-109	BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 \| best price	12.7%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Jared Jones Under	PIR@ROC	3:11 PM	5.5	5.0	+105	DK Under 5.5 +105 \| exact	9.1%	✓✗!––✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Bryce Elder Under	BRE@BRA	1:36 PM	5.5	5.2	-118	DK Under 5.5 -118 \| exact	5.5%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Davis Martin Over	SOX@TIG	1:41 PM	5.5	5.8	-111	BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 \| best price	5.5%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Slade Cecconi Under	GUA@AST	2:11 PM	5.5	5.2	-144	BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 \| best price	5.5%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Nathan Eovaldi Under	PAD@RAN	2:36 PM	5.5	5.3	-131	DK Under 5.5 -131 \| exact	3.6%	✓✗!!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	David Peterson Under	MET@PHI	7:21 PM	5.5	5.4	-118	DK Under 5.5 -118 \| exact	1.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Hits All	Michael Lorenzen Under	PIR@ROC	3:11 PM	6.5	6.4	-132	BetMGM Under 6.5 -120 \| best price	1.5%	✓✗!––✓	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Reid Detmers Over	ANG@ATH	4:06 PM	1.5	1.8	-124	DK Over 1.5 -124 \| exact	22.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Kai-Wei Teng Under	GUA@AST	2:11 PM	2.5	2.0	-128	DK Under 2.5 -128 \| exact	18.6%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Elmer Rodriguez Over	RED@YAN	1:36 PM	1.5	1.8	-205	DK Over 1.5 -205 \| exact	18.4%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Logan Gilbert Under	SOX@MAR	4:11 PM	1.5	1.2	-227	theScore Bet Under 1.5 -225 \| best price	18.2%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Chase Burns Under	RED@YAN	1:36 PM	2.5	2.1	-135	DK Under 2.5 -135 \| exact	16.9%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Walks	Payton Tolle Over	SOX@MAR	4:11 PM	1.5	1.7	-114	DK Over 1.5 -114 \| exact	14.4%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Keider Montero Under	SOX@TIG	1:41 PM	1.5	1.3	-157	DK Under 1.5 -157 \| exact	11.6%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Jared Jones Over	PIR@ROC	3:11 PM	1.5	1.7	+134	DK Over 1.5 +134 \| exact	11.2%	✓✗✗––✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Logan Webb Over	GIA@MAR	1:41 PM	1.5	1.7	-102	DK Over 1.5 -102 \| exact	10.1%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Robert Gasser Over	BRE@BRA	1:36 PM	1.5	1.6	+138	DK Over 1.5 +138 \| exact	9.8%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Slade Cecconi Over	GUA@AST	2:11 PM	1.5	1.6	-115	DK Over 1.5 -115 \| exact	9.7%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Andrew Alvarez Over	NAT@RAY	1:41 PM	1.5	1.6	-142	DK Over 1.5 -142 \| exact	8.3%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Jack Perkins Under	ANG@ATH	4:06 PM	1.5	1.4	-106	DK Under 1.5 -106 \| exact	6.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Emmet Sheehan Under	ORI@DOD	4:11 PM	1.5	1.4	-125	DK Under 1.5 -125 \| exact	5.9%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Davis Martin Under	SOX@TIG	1:41 PM	1.5	1.4	-102	DK Under 1.5 -102 \| exact	3.6%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Young Under	ORI@DOD	4:11 PM	2.5	2.4	-146	DK Under 2.5 -146 \| exact	2.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Nathan Eovaldi Under	PAD@RAN	2:36 PM	1.5	1.5	-134	DK Under 1.5 -134 \| exact	0.9%	✓✗!!–!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Mike Paredes Under	TWI@DIA	3:16 PM	1.5	1.5	-133	DK Under 1.5 -133 \| exact	0.7%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Walks	Michael Lorenzen Over	PIR@ROC	3:11 PM	1.5	1.5	-152	DK Over 1.5 -152 \| exact	0.4%	✓✗!––✓	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.08x)	Pitcher Earned R	Logan Webb Under	GIA@MAR	1:41 PM	2.5	2.1	-142	DK Under 2.5 -142 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Jack Perkins Under	ANG@ATH	4:06 PM	2.5	2.1	-130	DK Under 2.5 -130 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Emmet Sheehan Under	ORI@DOD	4:11 PM	2.5	2.1	-170	DK Under 2.5 -170 \| exact	16.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Robert Gasser Under	BRE@BRA	1:36 PM	2.5	2.2	-121	DK Under 2.5 -121 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Davis Martin Under	SOX@TIG	1:41 PM	2.5	2.2	-123	BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 \| best price	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Pitcher Earned R	Kai-Wei Teng Under	GUA@AST	2:11 PM	2.5	2.2	-166	DK Under 2.5 -166 \| exact	12.0%	✓!!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Bryce Elder Under	BRE@BRA	1:36 PM	2.5	2.3	-119	DK Under 2.5 -119 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Elmer Rodriguez Under	RED@YAN	1:36 PM	2.5	2.3	-170	BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 \| best price	8.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Ryan Gusto Under	GIA@MAR	1:41 PM	2.5	2.3	-116	DK Under 2.5 -116 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Nick Martinez Over	NAT@RAY	1:41 PM	2.5	2.7	-103	DK Over 2.5 -103 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Slade Cecconi Under	GUA@AST	2:11 PM	2.5	2.3	-114	DK Under 2.5 -114 \| exact	8.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Keider Montero Under	SOX@TIG	1:41 PM	2.5	2.4	-158	DK Under 2.5 -158 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Jared Jones Under	PIR@ROC	3:11 PM	2.5	2.4	-107	DK Under 2.5 -107 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗✗––✓	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	David Peterson Under	MET@PHI	7:21 PM	2.5	2.5	-104	BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 \| best price	-	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Payton Tolle Under	SOX@MAR	4:11 PM	6.5	5.9	-138	DK Under 6.5 -138 \| exact	9.8%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Shota Imanaga Under	JAY@CUB	2:21 PM	5.5	5.4	-159	BetOnline Under 5.5 -159 \| best price	2.0%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Nick Martinez Over	NAT@RAY	1:41 PM	3.5	3.6	-150	BetOnline Over 3.5 -135 \| best price	1.9%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Logan Webb Under	GIA@MAR	1:41 PM	5.5	5.4	-104	DK Under 5.5 -104 \| exact	1.6%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Keider Montero Over	SOX@TIG	1:41 PM	3.5	3.5	-142	BetMGM Over 3.5 -115 \| best price	1.0%	✓✗✓✓––	MONITOR
B (Review)	◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Earned R	Nathan Eovaldi Over	PAD@RAN	2:36 PM	2.5	2.6	+125	DK Over 2.5 +125 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!✓–✓	MONITOR

✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script