| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 288 | 56% | -5.44u | 59 | 53% | -3.42u | 134 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 243 | 58% | +7.39u | 70 | 51% | -6.83u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 15 | 60% | +0.44u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 577 | 74% | -6.44u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 148 | 59% | +3.11u | 98 | 55% | -6.72u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 110 | 59% | -3.75u | 71 | 56% | -6.50u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 13 | 69% | -0.11u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 5 | 60% | +0.50u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 84 | 44% | -12.30u | 9 | 67% | +1.44u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 8 | 43% | -1.23u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 77 | 58% | +0.95u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 4/5 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 3/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | 74.7 | 85.5 | 70.5 | 6 | Changeup (65% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 37.8%, put-away 26.3%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | 69.4 | 72.2 | 73.0 | 3 | Slider (53% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | 66.5 | 60.8 | 76.0 | 5 | Curveball (39% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | 65.5 | 53.9 | 79.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 49% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 61.9 | 58.2 | 70.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | 59.9 | 52.1 | 64.5 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (40% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | 58.5 | 62.4 | 58.0 | 5 | Split-Finger (43% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | 57.8 | 63.4 | 55.0 | 4 | Slider (40% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | 57.0 | 58.8 | 56.0 | 6 | Changeup (43% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | 55.5 | 48.1 | 66.0 | 5 | Slider (32% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | 55.0 | 75.5 | 33.0 | 4 | Curveball (47% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 33.6%, put-away 24.6%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | 54.8 | 63.2 | 51.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (40% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | 54.6 | 60.1 | 53.0 | 6 | Slider (46% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 27.9%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | 54.2 | 48.1 | 63.0 | 6 | Sweeper (35% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres | 53.3 | 64.2 | 44.0 | 6 | Curveball (36% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Stephen Kolek | Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | 51.3 | 42.2 | 62.0 | 6 | Slider (46% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kai-Wei Teng | Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians | 51.2 | 59.0 | 44.0 | 6 | Curveball (48% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | 49.1 | 44.4 | 56.5 | 5 | Changeup (31% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | 47.2 | 55.4 | 39.5 | 5 | Slider (38% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Mike Paredes | Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.4 | 42.1 | 51.0 | 4 | Changeup (26% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | 45.3 | 45.2 | 44.5 | 7 | Curveball (35% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | 44.4 | 33.4 | 56.5 | 5 | Changeup (24% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 16.6%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| David Peterson | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | 44.2 | 48.4 | 38.0 | 5 | Curveball (34% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 43.2 | 42.4 | 45.5 | 5 | Slider (42% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | 38.5 | 36.4 | 43.0 | 6 | Changeup (34% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 37.2 | 43.0 | 26.0 | 7 | Changeup (34% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Elmer Rodríguez | New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds | 36.3 | 50.3 | 18.0 | 6 | Slider (50% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 9.2%, xwOBA 0.379, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants | 29.1 | 35.9 | 15.0 | 7 | Changeup (32% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 20.2%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.385, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Jose Cabrera | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | - | - | - | 0 | - | Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Cabrera | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | R | 21.5% | - | 5.2 | 5.2 | 87 | short | missing | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+hand | season leash 5.2 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing |
| Jack Perkins | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 25.2% | 3.9 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 65 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start |
| Bryce Elder | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 18.0% | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 86 | short | full | 66.00 | 34.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9% |
| Brandon Young | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 17.5% | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 106 | deep | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | L | 24.7% | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 91 | normal | full | 79.00 | 21.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 22.7% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 92 | normal | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | R | 23.2% | 4.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 82 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | R | 31.9% | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 73.00 | 27.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Slade Cecconi | Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | R | 20.1% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 19.8% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 72 | short | full | 26.00 | 74.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Keider Montero | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | R | 17.7% | 4.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 79 | short | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Kai-Wei Teng | Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 24.5% | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 77 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Stephen Kolek | Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 18.4% | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 111 | deep | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | L | 30.2% | 6.6 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 111 | deep | full | 76.00 | 24.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Emmet Sheehan | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 25.4% | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 74 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants | R | 19.2% | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 44 | short | full | 15.00 | 85.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.6 IP/start |
| Robert Gasser | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | L | 22.4% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 79 | short | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Mike Paredes | Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 19.4% | 3.4 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 57 | short | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.4 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 20.0% |
| David Peterson | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 17.4% | 4.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 67 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start |
| Elmer Rodríguez | New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 16.5% | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 69 | short | full | 18.00 | 82.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | R | 26.2% | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 104 | deep | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | R | 22.8% | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 72 | short | full | 33.00 | 67.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| Logan Webb | San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | R | 21.6% | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 104 | deep | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | R | 27.9% | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 51.00 | 49.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | R | 26.1% | 6.5 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 109 | deep | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | R | 13.8% | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 97 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres | R | 22.1% | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 107 | deep | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | R | 36.6% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 70.50 | 29.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 22.5% | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 55 | short | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.0% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | Nathan Eovaldi Over | San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers | 18.5 | 21.0 | 2.5 | 13.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.3% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +2.47 <= 3 min |
| Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler Over | New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 20.9 | 2.4 | 13.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.0% vs 10% min using blended line 18.17 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +2.73 <= 3 min |
| Logan Webb | Logan Webb Over | San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins | 18.5 | 20.5 | 2.0 | 11.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.3 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap +2.04 <= 3 min |
| Reid Detmers | Reid Detmers Over | Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 9.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) |
| Dustin May | Dustin May Over | St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals | 18.5 | 19.2 | 0.7 | 4.0% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 109 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.83 (3 books) |
| Nick Martinez | Nick Martinez Under | Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays | 17.5 | 16.9 | -0.6 | 3.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.9 | 97 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) |
| Logan Gilbert | Logan Gilbert Over | Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 18.5 | 18.7 | 0.2 | 1.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (3 books) |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Nathan Eovaldi Over | PAD@RAN | 2:36 PM | 5.5 | 7.0 | -120 | BetRivers Over 5.5 -105 | best price | 28.0% | ✓✓✓✓–✓ | BEST PLAY |
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed | K Prop | Logan Gilbert Over | SOX@MAR | 4:11 PM | 7.5 | 8.0 | +122 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -120 | alt rescue | 6.9% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 109 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks | K Prop | Ryan Gusto Under | GIA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 3.5 | 1.9 | +129 | BetRivers Under 3.5 +132 | best price | 45.8% | ✓✓!!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Michael Lorenzen Over | PIR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.6 | -164 | BetRivers Over 3.5 -130 | best price | 31.9% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Gusto Under | GIA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -127 | DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact | 25.4% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@BRA | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -109 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-242); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Nick Martinez Under | NAT@RAY | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -242 | DK Under 1.5 -242 | exact | 39.1% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Ryan Gusto Under | GIA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -147 | DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact | 30.5% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-201); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Elmer Rodriguez Under | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -201 | DK Under 2.5 -201 | exact | 29.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-178); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Bryce Elder Over | BRE@BRA | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -178 | DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact | 25.5% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Emmet Sheehan Over | ORI@DOD | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -167 | DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Gilbert Over | SOX@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -133 | DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-176); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Payton Tolle Over | SOX@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -176 | DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Chase Burns Under | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -162 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 32.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Zack Wheeler Over | MET@PHI | 7:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -158 | DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Alvarez Under | NAT@RAY | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -169 | DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Reid Detmers Under | ANG@ATH | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | +104 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Lorenzen Under | PIR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -138 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -130 | best price | 17.1% | ✓!!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Dylan Cease Over | JAY@CUB | 2:21 PM | 6.5 | 9.9 | -153 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -120 | best price | 51.7% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.3% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (7 books) clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Young Over | ORI@DOD | 4:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.5 | -160 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price | 28.2% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books) | K Prop | Reid Detmers Over | ANG@ATH | 4:06 PM | 6.5 | 8.2 | -116 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -105 | best price | 26.3% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.07 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Alvarez Under | NAT@RAY | 1:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.4 | -148 | DK Under 4.5 -148 | exact | 23.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.4% vs 17% min using blended line 3.36 (7 books) clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Stephen Kolek Over | CAR@ROY | 2:11 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -118 | BetMGM Over 3.5 +105 | best price | 19.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 17% min using blended line 4.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | David Peterson Under | MET@PHI | 7:21 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | +111 | DK Under 4.5 +111 | exact | 13.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Kai-Wei Teng Under | GUA@AST | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -140 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -118 | best price | 12.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Davis Martin Over | SOX@TIG | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.1 | +129 | DK Over 5.5 +129 | exact | 10.7% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 17% min using blended line 6 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Payton Tolle Under | SOX@MAR | 4:11 PM | 6.5 | 5.9 | -138 | DK Under 6.5 -138 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using blended line 7.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 7.5 | 8.2 | +103 | BetOnline Over 7.5 +128 | best price | 9.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using blended line 5.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Perkins Under | ANG@ATH | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -123 | DK Under 5.5 -123 | exact | 5.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 17% min using blended line 5.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Jared Jones Over | PIR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +114 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +120 | best price | 5.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using blended line 3.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Martinez Under | NAT@RAY | 1:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | +127 | DK Under 3.5 +127 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using blended line 4.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryce Elder Over | BRE@BRA | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.7 | +108 | BetRivers Over 4.5 +125 | best price | 3.7% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 5.36 (7 books): market gap +0.05; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | K Prop | Logan Webb Under | GIA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | +105 | BetRivers Under 5.5 +107 | best price | 1.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 5.36 (7 books): market gap +0.06; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | K Prop | Dustin May Under | CAR@ROY | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -136 | DK Under 5.5 -136 | exact | 1.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 17% min using blended line 3.93 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Slade Cecconi Over | GUA@AST | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | +124 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -170 | alt rescue | 1.2% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 3.36 (7 books): market gap +0.10; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | K Prop | Keider Montero Under | SOX@TIG | 1:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -112 | FanDuel Under 3.5 +110 | best price | 1.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 4.36 (7 books): market gap +0.11; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | K Prop | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@BRA | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -168 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -165 | best price | 0.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using blended line 6.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Zack Wheeler Over | MET@PHI | 7:21 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | -117 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -106 | best price | 0.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.3% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +2.47 <= 3 min — posture note at… | Pitcher Outs | Nathan Eovaldi Over | PAD@RAN | 2:36 PM | 18.5 | 21.0 | +103 | DK Over 18.5 +103 | exact | 13.3% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.0% vs 10% min using blended line 18.17 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +2.73 <= 3 min — posture note a… | Pitcher Outs | Zack Wheeler Over | MET@PHI | 7:21 PM | 18.5 | 20.9 | +104 | Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +115 | best price | 13.0% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.0% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap +2.04 <= 3 min — posture note at… | Pitcher Outs | Logan Webb Over | GIA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 18.5 | 20.5 | -106 | theScore Bet Over 18.5 -105 | best price | 11.0% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Reid Detmers Over | ANG@ATH | 4:06 PM | 17.5 | 19.2 | -105 | DK Over 17.5 -105 | exact | 9.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.83 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Dustin May Over | CAR@ROY | 2:11 PM | 18.5 | 19.2 | +121 | Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -160 | alt rescue | 4.0% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Nick Martinez Under | NAT@RAY | 1:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.9 | -112 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +105 | best price | 3.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Logan Gilbert Over | SOX@MAR | 4:11 PM | 18.5 | 18.7 | +113 | BetMGM Over 18.5 +135 | best price | 1.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Reid Detmers Under | ANG@ATH | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 3.2 | -105 | DK Under 5.5 -105 | exact | 41.8% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Martinez Over | NAT@RAY | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | -114 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) | Pitcher Hits All | Logan Webb Under | GIA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | +112 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -155 | alt rescue | 12.7% | ✓✓✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 15% min using blended line 5.17 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Andrew Alvarez Under | NAT@RAY | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -165 | DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jared Jones Under | PIR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | +105 | DK Under 5.5 +105 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Davis Martin Over | SOX@TIG | 1:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -112 | BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Bryce Elder Under | BRE@BRA | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -118 | DK Under 5.5 -118 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Slade Cecconi Under | GUA@AST | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -144 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nathan Eovaldi Under | PAD@RAN | 2:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -139 | DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | David Peterson Under | MET@PHI | 7:21 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -114 | DK Under 5.5 -114 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Reid Detmers Over | ANG@ATH | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -124 | DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact | 22.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Kai-Wei Teng Under | GUA@AST | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -124 | DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact | 18.6% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Logan Gilbert Under | SOX@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -219 | DK Under 1.5 -219 | exact | 18.2% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books) | Pitcher Walks | Payton Tolle Over | SOX@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -114 | DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact | 14.4% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Keider Montero Under | SOX@TIG | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -144 | DK Under 1.5 -144 | exact | 13.1% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jared Jones Over | PIR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +129 | DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact | 11.2% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Logan Webb Over | GIA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +102 | DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact | 10.1% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Robert Gasser Over | BRE@BRA | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +141 | DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Slade Cecconi Over | GUA@AST | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -109 | DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact | 9.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Chase Burns Under | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -140 | DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Alvarez Over | NAT@RAY | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -143 | DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact | 8.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jack Perkins Under | ANG@ATH | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -106 | DK Under 1.5 -106 | exact | 6.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Emmet Sheehan Under | ORI@DOD | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -121 | DK Under 1.5 -121 | exact | 5.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Davis Martin Under | SOX@TIG | 1:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +104 | DK Under 1.5 +104 | exact | 3.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Brandon Young Under | ORI@DOD | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -151 | DK Under 2.5 -151 | exact | 2.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Nathan Eovaldi Under | PAD@RAN | 2:36 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -136 | DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact | 0.9% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Michael Lorenzen Over | PIR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -134 | DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact | 0.4% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Logan Webb Under | GIA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -135 | DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Gusto Under | GIA@MAR | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -133 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Jack Perkins Under | ANG@ATH | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -131 | DK Under 2.5 -131 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Robert Gasser Under | BRE@BRA | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -110 | DK Under 2.5 -110 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Davis Martin Under | SOX@TIG | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -124 | DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Kai-Wei Teng Under | GUA@AST | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -154 | DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Elder Under | BRE@BRA | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -123 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Elmer Rodriguez Under | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -164 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Martinez Over | NAT@RAY | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -103 | DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Slade Cecconi Under | GUA@AST | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -118 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Keider Montero Under | SOX@TIG | 1:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -150 | DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Nathan Eovaldi Over | PAD@RAN | 2:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | +124 | BetMGM Over 2.5 +125 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jared Jones Under | PIR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -103 | DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Young Over | ORI@DOD | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -115 | DK Over 2.5 -115 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | David Peterson Under | MET@PHI | 7:21 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +102 | DK Under 2.5 +102 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Elmer Rodriguez Over | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -164 | BetMGM Over 3.5 -135 | best price | 15.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 4.67 (6 books): market gap +0.72; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Under | JAY@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -158 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 2.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Emmet Sheehan Under | ORI@DOD | 4:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | -106 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -105 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using blended line 6.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Lorenzen Under | PIR@ROC | 3:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.4 | -118 | Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -115 | best price | 1.5% | ✓✗✓––✓ | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script