| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 284 | 56% | -3.14u | 55 | 55% | -1.12u | 133 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 235 | 57% | +4.67u | 66 | 48% | -9.85u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 16 | 62% | +1.11u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 584 | 73% | -11.63u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 140 | 59% | +1.16u | 92 | 53% | -8.95u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 103 | 59% | -3.15u | 69 | 57% | -5.75u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 14 | 71% | +0.28u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 5 | 60% | +0.50u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 82 | 43% | -13.89u | 7 | 57% | -0.15u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 8 | 43% | -1.23u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 77 | 58% | +0.95u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 4/5 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 3/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | 69.6 | 60.8 | 82.5 | 7 | Changeup (37% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 22.3%, xwOBA 0.250, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 67.9 | 72.1 | 72.0 | 3 | Changeup (46% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 26.6%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | 60.4 | 64.8 | 61.5 | 4 | Slider (38% whiff, 41% usage) | Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | 60.3 | 61.4 | 62.5 | 4 | 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 59% usage) | Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | 60.2 | 58.7 | 64.0 | 4 | Changeup (36% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | 59.6 | 61.8 | 64.0 | 6 | Split-Finger (34% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 28.8%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | 58.8 | 61.3 | 59.5 | 6 | Sweeper (45% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants | 56.3 | 62.6 | 54.5 | 5 | Slider (43% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | 55.3 | 56.9 | 56.0 | 5 | Curveball (33% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Newcomb | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | 55.3 | 54.7 | 57.5 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (39% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | 54.2 | 58.8 | 53.5 | 5 | Slider (34% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds | 53.3 | 47.6 | 59.5 | 5 | Sweeper (23% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres | 52.3 | 57.0 | 50.0 | 6 | Curveball (33% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.6 | 59.0 | 44.5 | 4 | Split-Finger (43% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | 50.1 | 55.8 | 44.5 | 5 | Curveball (42% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | 49.3 | 53.5 | 44.5 | 5 | Changeup (39% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | 49.1 | 54.4 | 46.0 | 4 | Slider (39% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians | 47.1 | 56.1 | 42.0 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | 45.7 | 49.6 | 43.0 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Connelly Early | Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | 43.9 | 47.1 | 42.0 | 6 | 4-Seam Fastball (24% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 42.2 | 38.9 | 44.5 | 5 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 11.7%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | 41.0 | 41.4 | 38.0 | 5 | Changeup (41% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | 40.8 | 35.8 | 45.0 | 6 | Cutter (23% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | 38.0 | 36.4 | 41.0 | 7 | Curveball (30% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Patrick Corbin | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | 35.8 | 38.6 | 27.5 | 5 | Slider (38% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | 32.6 | 34.9 | 26.0 | 5 | Slider (31% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | 32.1 | 38.7 | 23.5 | 7 | Changeup (31% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.368, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 20.3 | 29.1 | 6.0 | 7 | Split-Finger (28% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 17.0%, put-away 11.4%, xwOBA 0.403, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | R | 14.6% | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 87 | normal | full | 26.00 | 74.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 21.4% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 86 | short | full | 53.50 | 46.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 28.5% | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 96 | normal | full | 61.50 | 38.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.0% |
| Trevor Rogers | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 16.1% | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 89 | normal | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| Connelly Early | Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | L | 21.7% | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Colin Rea | Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 16.0% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 23.50 | 76.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Sean Newcomb | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | L | 26.6% | 1.7 | - | 4.9 | 28 | short | full | 57.50 | 42.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Andrew Abbott | Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | L | 17.8% | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 94 | normal | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Joey Cantillo | Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | L | 21.6% | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 70 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 13.8% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 6.00 | 94.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | R | 17.6% | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 106 | deep | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 22.0% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 91 | normal | full | 42.00 | 58.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | R | 21.7% | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 24.9% | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 117 | deep | full | 64.00 | 36.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Max Meyer | Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants | R | 27.1% | 6.2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | L | 29.0% | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 89 | normal | full | 62.50 | 37.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 25.2% | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 79 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 20.0% |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 22.4% | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 94 | normal | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Will Warren | New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 20.9% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 84 | short | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | L | 28.4% | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 114 | deep | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | R | 30.4% | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 89 | normal | full | 82.50 | 17.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Walker Buehler | San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | R | 20.2% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 86 | short | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Trevor McDonald | San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | R | 22.2% | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 76 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Emerson Hancock | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | R | 21.8% | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 87 | normal | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Ian Seymour | Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | L | 22.9% | 2.4 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 40 | short | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.4 IP/start |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres | L | 25.3% | 5.7 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 96 | normal | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Patrick Corbin | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | L | 17.5% | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 74 | short | full | 27.50 | 72.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 24.4% | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 94 | normal | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.5%, low-K contact opponent 18.9% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | Zac Gallen Under | Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 14.6 | -2.9 | 16.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.1 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) clears, but raw gap -2.93 <= 3 min |
| Taj Bradley | Taj Bradley Under | Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 14.9 | -2.6 | 14.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.3 | 79 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using blended line 17.33 (6 books) clears, but raw gap -2.42 <= 3 min |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Cristopher Sanchez Over | New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | 19.5 | 22.1 | 2.6 | 13.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.6 | 114 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using blended line 19.7 (5 books) clears, but raw gap +2.40 <= 3 min |
| MacKenzie Gore | MacKenzie Gore Under | San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 16.0 | -1.5 | 8.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.3 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) |
| JT Ginn | JT Ginn Under | Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics | 17.5 | 16.1 | -1.4 | 7.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | - | - | - | - | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books) |
| Max Meyer | Max Meyer Over | San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins | 17.5 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 6.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) |
| Kyle Harrison | Kyle Harrison Under | Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves | 17.5 | 16.5 | -1.0 | 5.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.1 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) |
| Paul Skenes | Paul Skenes Over | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.8 | 4.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.67 (6 books) |
| Chris Sale | Chris Sale Over | Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves | 18.5 | 18.8 | 0.3 | 1.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (6 books) |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@ATH | 10:06 PM | 3.5 | 5.8 | -143 | DK Over 3.5 -143 | exact | 64.1% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | JT Ginn Under | ANG@ATH | 10:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -136 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 23.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Hits All | Zac Gallen Over | TWI@DIA | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.6 | -143 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Paul Skenes Under | PIR@ROC | 9:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -120 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Hits All | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@PHI | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -155 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 16.4% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Walbert Urena Under | ANG@ATH | 10:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -110 | DK Under 5.5 -110 | exact | 16.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | PIR@ROC | 9:11 PM | 6.5 | 5.6 | -119 | BetMGM Under 6.5 -115 | best price | 13.9% | ✓!✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | MacKenzie Gore Over | PAD@RAN | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -160 | DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact | 63.5% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-201); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | JT Ginn Over | ANG@ATH | 10:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -201 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | best price | 42.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-180); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Will Warren Over | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -180 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -175 | best price | 34.1% | ✓✓!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-205); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Paul Skenes Under | PIR@ROC | 9:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -205 | DK Under 1.5 -205 | exact | 28.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Max Meyer Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -138 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price | 24.6% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@ATH | 10:06 PM | 2.5 | 3.1 | -123 | DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact | 23.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Spencer Arrighetti Over | GUA@AST | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -150 | DK Over 2.5 -150 | exact | 21.5% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Paul Skenes Under | PIR@ROC | 9:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.5 | -163 | DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Walbert Urena Under | ANG@ATH | 10:06 PM | 3.5 | 2.3 | -161 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -150 | best price | 34.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@BRA | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 1.7 | -169 | DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact | 32.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Will Warren Under | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -171 | DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Abbott Under | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | -144 | DK Under 3.5 -144 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Zac Gallen Over | TWI@DIA | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -138 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -130 | best price | 20.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | JT Ginn Over | ANG@ATH | 10:06 PM | 4.5 | 6.7 | -162 | theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230 | best price | 49.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 42.5% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Freddy Peralta Over | MET@PHI | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 6.9 | +113 | BetOnline Over 5.5 +115 | best price | 25.5% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 42.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Chris Sale Over | BRE@BRA | 4:11 PM | 7.5 | 9.2 | +100 | BetOnline Over 7.5 +120 | best price | 22.4% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 45.4% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Cade Cavalli Over | NAT@RAY | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | -108 | BetRivers Over 4.5 +105 | best price | 19.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 43.8% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Cristopher Sanchez Over | MET@PHI | 7:16 PM | 7.5 | 8.9 | +116 | BetMGM Over 6.5 -155 | alt rescue | 19.3% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.21 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@RAN | 4:06 PM | 4.5 | 3.6 | -151 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -140 | best price | 20.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using blended line 4.36 (7 books) clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Trevor McDonald Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | +100 | BetMGM Over 4.5 +110 | best price | 13.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using blended line 4.33 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Joey Cantillo Over | GUA@AST | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -120 | DK Over 4.5 -120 | exact | 13.3% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using blended line 5.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Will Warren Under | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | +111 | BetRivers Under 5.5 +112 | best price | 10.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | MacKenzie Gore Over | PAD@RAN | 4:06 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | -105 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +122 | best price | 5.4% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using blended line 4.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Andrew Abbott Under | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -135 | Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -130 | best price | 5.0% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 5.33 (6 books): market gap +0.04; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | K Prop | Spencer Arrighetti Under | GUA@AST | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | +110 | FanDuel Under 5.5 +116 | best price | 2.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) clears, but raw gap -2.93 <= 3 min — posture note at… | Pitcher Outs | Zac Gallen Under | TWI@DIA | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.6 | +103 | BetOnline Under 17.5 +110 | best price | 16.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using blended line 17.33 (6 books) clears, but raw gap -2.42 <= 3 min — posture note a… | Pitcher Outs | Taj Bradley Under | TWI@DIA | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 14.9 | -126 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -120 | best price | 14.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using blended line 19.7 (5 books) clears, but raw gap +2.40 <= 3 min — posture note at… | Pitcher Outs | Cristopher Sanchez Over | MET@PHI | 7:16 PM | 19.5 | 22.1 | -119 | DK Over 19.5 -119 | exact | 13.4% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | MacKenzie Gore Under | PAD@RAN | 4:06 PM | 17.5 | 16.0 | -124 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -115 | best price | 8.8% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | JT Ginn Under | ANG@ATH | 10:06 PM | 17.5 | 16.1 | -118 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -105 | best price | 7.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Max Meyer Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.6 | -167 | BetOnline Over 17.5 -160 | best price | 6.1% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@BRA | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 16.5 | -119 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -118 | best price | 5.6% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.67 (6 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Paul Skenes Over | PIR@ROC | 9:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.2 | -159 | DK Over 17.5 -159 | exact | 4.3% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Chris Sale Over | BRE@BRA | 4:11 PM | 18.5 | 18.8 | +121 | BetMGM Over 18.5 +140 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@RAN | 4:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -145 | DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Taj Bradley Over | TWI@DIA | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.0 | +117 | DK Over 5.5 +117 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Andrew Abbott Under | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | +104 | DK Under 5.5 +104 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Cristopher Sanchez Under | MET@PHI | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -128 | DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 15% min using blended line 5.25 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Trevor McDonald Under | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -154 | DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Patrick Corbin Under | JAY@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -139 | theScore Bet Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 5.25 (4 books): market gap +0.05; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | Pitcher Hits All | Cade Cavalli Under | NAT@RAY | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -145 | DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Colin Rea Over | JAY@CUB | 2:21 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +109 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Trevor McDonald Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -181 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price | 19.1% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Chris Sale Over | BRE@BRA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -136 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price | 17.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@PHI | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -170 | DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact | 16.5% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Harrison Under | BRE@BRA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -191 | DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact | 14.4% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Walks | Patrick Corbin Over | JAY@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -172 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price | 13.8% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Cade Cavalli Over | NAT@RAY | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -121 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price | 13.6% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Taj Bradley Under | TWI@DIA | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -125 | DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact | 11.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Joey Cantillo Under | GUA@AST | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -173 | DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact | 9.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Abbott Over | RED@YAN | 1:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | +149 | DK Over 2.5 +149 | exact | 9.4% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Zac Gallen Under | TWI@DIA | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | +102 | DK Under 1.5 +102 | exact | 9.3% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cristopher Sanchez Under | MET@PHI | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -189 | DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact | 8.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Tomoyuki Sugano Over | PIR@ROC | 9:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -130 | DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact | 7.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Colin Rea Over | JAY@CUB | 2:21 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -150 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@RAN | 4:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -136 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price | 1.6% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Colin Rea Over | JAY@CUB | 2:21 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | +101 | DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Walker Buehler Under | PAD@RAN | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -155 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | JT Ginn Under | ANG@ATH | 10:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -128 | DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Chris Sale Over | BRE@BRA | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -128 | DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Cristopher Sanchez Under | MET@PHI | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | +101 | BetMGM Under 1.5 +110 | best price | 13.3% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | MacKenzie Gore Under | PAD@RAN | 4:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -173 | DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Max Meyer Under | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -153 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Pitcher Earned R | Freddy Peralta Under | MET@PHI | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -120 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -105 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cade Cavalli Under | NAT@RAY | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -170 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Taj Bradley Over | TWI@DIA | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -125 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -120 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tomoyuki Sugano Under | PIR@ROC | 9:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | -111 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -105 | best price | 5.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Patrick Corbin Over | JAY@CUB | 2:21 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -113 | DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trevor McDonald Under | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -129 | DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ian Seymour Under | NAT@RAY | 4:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +127 | DK Under 1.5 +127 | exact | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Spencer Arrighetti Under | GUA@AST | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -137 | DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Joey Cantillo Under | GUA@AST | 7:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -130 | DK Under 2.5 -130 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.1% vs 17% min using blended line 5.36 (7 books) clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Max Meyer Over | GIA@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | -149 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -118 | best price | 15.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using blended line 5.36 (7 books) clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Kyle Harrison Over | BRE@BRA | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.3 | -132 | BetOnline Over 5.5 -130 | best price | 14.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using blended line 6.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Paul Skenes Over | PIR@ROC | 9:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | -130 | Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -120 | best price | 12.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using blended line 3.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Colin Rea Under | JAY@CUB | 2:21 PM | 3.5 | 3.2 | -108 | FanDuel Under 3.5 +100 | best price | 8.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min using blended line 4.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Taj Bradley Over | TWI@DIA | 10:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.8 | -141 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -130 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using blended line 3.79 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Zac Gallen Under | TWI@DIA | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | +119 | BetRivers Under 4.5 -143 | alt rescue | 4.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 3.36 (7 books): market gap +0.02; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | K Prop | Patrick Corbin Under | JAY@CUB | 2:21 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -107 | DK Under 3.5 -107 | exact | 3.5% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script