| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 280 | 56% | -6.43u | 51 | 51% | -4.42u | 131 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 232 | 57% | +4.28u | 67 | 46% | -12.62u | 3 | 33% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 17 | 59% | +0.11u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 588 | 73% | -10.60u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 132 | 60% | +4.08u | 89 | 55% | -5.34u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 97 | 60% | -1.90u | 68 | 59% | -2.62u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 14 | 71% | +0.28u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 5 | 60% | +0.50u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 82 | 43% | -13.89u | 7 | 57% | -0.15u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 8 | 43% | -1.23u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 77 | 58% | +0.95u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 4/5 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 3/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | 89.1 | 97.1 | 95.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (44% whiff, 64% usage) | Savant whiff 38.7%, put-away 35.9%, xwOBA 0.225, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Lake Bachar | Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants | 72.1 | 76.1 | 75.5 | 6 | Slider (46% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 33.8%, put-away 24.8%, xwOBA 0.264, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | 68.1 | 58.6 | 86.5 | 7 | Slider (33% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.242, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds | 64.8 | 59.9 | 75.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (32% whiff, 45% usage) | Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.265, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres | 63.9 | 74.6 | 59.5 | 5 | Changeup (43% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 33.7%, put-away 23.5%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Eisert | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | 63.7 | 60.8 | 65.0 | 4 | Changeup (37% whiff, 27% usage) | Savant whiff 29.8%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | 61.7 | 62.5 | 65.5 | 5 | Changeup (50% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | 61.0 | 59.3 | 65.5 | 3 | Split-Finger (39% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Ben Brown | Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | 60.3 | 58.6 | 68.5 | 4 | Curveball (44% whiff, 36% usage) | Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | 57.9 | 71.1 | 49.0 | 5 | Curveball (45% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 32.9%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | 57.6 | 54.5 | 63.0 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | 55.6 | 53.3 | 62.0 | 6 | Curveball (42% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | 53.3 | 61.9 | 44.5 | 3 | Slider (42% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | 51.4 | 67.9 | 36.5 | 6 | Sweeper (41% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 31.5%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Soroka | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | 49.8 | 49.0 | 54.5 | 6 | Slurve (33% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | 48.8 | 49.9 | 48.0 | 6 | Slider (38% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 47.8 | 44.4 | 50.0 | 5 | Curveball (34% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | 47.6 | 44.1 | 48.5 | 5 | Changeup (39% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | 46.8 | 56.1 | 39.5 | 6 | Cutter (38% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | 46.0 | 43.0 | 50.5 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians | 45.2 | 56.4 | 35.0 | 5 | Slider (37% whiff, 44% usage) | Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | 39.4 | 43.3 | 34.5 | 4 | Slider (38% whiff, 24% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 34.3 | 43.6 | 20.0 | 6 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.375, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | 34.0 | 37.5 | 30.0 | 8 | Cutter (22% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s) |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | 31.1 | 38.0 | 26.0 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Randy Vásquez | San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | 30.7 | 43.0 | 17.5 | 7 | 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.380, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| PJ Poulin | Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | 25.1 | 27.8 | 18.5 | 4 | Sweeper (29% whiff, 35% usage) | Savant whiff 15.7%, put-away 12.8%, xwOBA 0.378, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Trey Gibson | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 24.3 | 33.5 | 13.0 | 6 | Curveball (30% whiff, 15% usage) | Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | R | 22.7% | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 107 | deep | full | 54.50 | 45.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jeffrey Springs | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 19.7% | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 79 | short | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 21.4% | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.0% |
| Trey Gibson | Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 17.3% | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 65 | short | full | 13.00 | 87.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6% |
| Ranger Suarez | Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | L | 24.7% | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 84 | short | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start |
| Ben Brown | Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 23.8% | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 97 | normal | full | 68.50 | 31.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.6% |
| Brandon Eisert | Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | L | 29.8% | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 17 | short | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Rhett Lowder | Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | R | 20.3% | 3.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 59 | short | full | 34.50 | 65.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2% |
| Tanner Bibee | Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | R | 20.5% | 6.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 107 | deep | full | 39.50 | 60.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kyle Freeland | Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | L | 17.5% | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 79 | short | full | 20.00 | 80.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8% |
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | L | 26.0% | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Tatsuya Imai | Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 22.5% | 5.0 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 84 | short | full | 35.00 | 65.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4% |
| Seth Lugo | Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | R | 19.1% | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 87 | normal | full | 30.00 | 70.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| José Soriano | Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | R | 23.9% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 89 | normal | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6% |
| Roki Sasaki | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 25.4% | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 94 | normal | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Lake Bachar | Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants | R | 28.3% | 2.0 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 34 | short | full | 75.50 | 24.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.0 IP/start |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | R | 40.0% | 7.2 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 121 | deep | full | 95.00 | 5.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Connor Prielipp | Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 21.7% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 80 | short | full | 50.00 | 50.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 20.0% |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 26.2% | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 96 | normal | full | 75.00 | 25.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Bubba Chandler | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | R | 24.7% | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 86 | short | full | 48.00 | 52.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Randy Vásquez | San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | R | 16.4% | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 79 | short | full | 17.50 | 82.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | R | 24.3% | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Bryce Miller | Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox | R | 28.0% | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 86.50 | 13.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael McGreevy | St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | R | 15.2% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 26.00 | 74.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Griffin Jax | Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | R | 24.0% | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 70 | short | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres | R | 27.8% | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 59.50 | 40.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | R | 25.1% | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 84 | short | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.1% |
| PJ Poulin | Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 15.8% | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 20 | short | full | 18.50 | 81.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.1% |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Jacob Misiorowski Over | Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves | 18.5 | 21.8 | 3.3 | 17.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.4 | 121 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree |
| Michael Soroka | Michael Soroka Over | Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 19.6 | 2.1 | 11.9% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.9 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min |
| Ranger Suarez | Ranger Suarez Under | Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 15.8 | -1.7 | 9.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.3 | 84 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) |
| Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal Over | Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | 17.5 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 9.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 99 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.33 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +1.81 <= 3 min |
| Cam Schlittler | Cam Schlittler Over | Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 7.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) |
| Michael McGreevy | Michael McGreevy Under | St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 16.8 | -0.7 | 3.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.6 | 91 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.33 (6 books) |
| Jacob deGrom | Jacob deGrom Over | San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 2.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.4 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.58 (6 books) |
| Tanner Bibee | Tanner Bibee Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros | 17.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 2.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.8 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -152, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash | K Prop | Roki Sasaki Over | ORI@DOD | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 7.0 | -152 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -145 | best price | 27.4% | ✓✓✓✓–– | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note K final QC: full-lineup opp K% 20.7%, 8/9 bats with platoon edge | K Prop | Griffin Jax Over | NAT@RAY | 7:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.4 | -125 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -115 | best price | 19.5% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Michael Soroka Under | TWI@DIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -156 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | best price | 25.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Tanner Bibee Under | GUA@AST | 8:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -120 | DK Under 5.5 -120 | exact | 18.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Bryce Miller Over | SOX@MAR | 10:11 PM | 0.5 | 1.6 | -157 | DK Over 0.5 -157 | exact | 211.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-212); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Tarik Skubal Over | SOX@TIG | 6:41 PM | 0.5 | 1.4 | -212 | DK Over 0.5 -212 | exact | 185.1% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-184); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.7 | -184 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price | 77.4% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Roki Sasaki Over | ORI@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -164 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 41.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Martin Perez Over | BRE@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -131 | DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact | 31.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Jacob deGrom Under | PAD@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -158 | DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact | 27.1% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Martin Perez Over | BRE@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -175 | DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under | Pitcher Earned R | Jose Soriano Under | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.2 | -165 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -155 | best price | 37.1% | ✓✓!!–! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob Misiorowski Under | BRE@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -154 | DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Ranger Suarez Over | SOX@MAR | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -166 | DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact | 33.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Griffin Jax Over | NAT@RAY | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -121 | DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact | 26.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| ► SMALL PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A (Weak) | ◔ Small Play Framework warning(s): Books Agree — posture note at B | Pitcher Walks | Jose Soriano Over | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -123 | DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact | 21.8% | ✓✓!✓–✓ | SMALL PLAY |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Jacob deGrom Over | PAD@RAN | 8:06 PM | 6.5 | 8.5 | -111 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -102 | best price | 31.1% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 47.8% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Jose Soriano Over | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 7.0 | +116 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue | 27.9% | ✓✓✗!–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Jacob Misiorowski Over | BRE@BRA | 7:16 PM | 8.5 | 10.5 | -110 | FanDuel Over 8.5 +100 | best price | 23.9% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books) — posture note at C | K Prop | Bryce Miller Over | SOX@MAR | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | +119 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue | 15.7% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books) | K Prop | Tarik Skubal Over | SOX@TIG | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 8.0 | -110 | BetRivers Over 6.5 -106 | best price | 22.9% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 17% min using blended line 4.21 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Seth Lugo Under | CAR@ROY | 8:16 PM | 4.5 | 3.7 | -160 | DK Under 4.5 -160 | exact | 16.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using blended line 3.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Trey Gibson Under | ORI@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | -132 | BetOnline Under 3.5 -120 | best price | 14.8% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Jeffrey Springs Over | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.1 | -127 | BetOnline Over 4.5 -114 | best price | 12.9% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@YAN | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | -153 | BetMGM Under 4.5 -150 | best price | 11.7% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 17% min using blended line 5.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -163 | BetRivers Under 5.5 -143 | best price | 10.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using blended line 4.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Tanner Bibee Over | GUA@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -116 | Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -105 | best price | 10.3% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using blended line 3.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael McGreevy Over | CAR@ROY | 8:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.8 | +109 | DK Over 3.5 +109 | exact | 8.2% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using blended line 5.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Soroka Over | TWI@DIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +103 | FanDuel Over 5.5 +116 | best price | 6.0% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using blended line 3.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Connor Prielipp Over | TWI@DIA | 9:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | -153 | Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -145 | best price | 1.3% | ✓✗✓!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 3.33 (6 books): market gap +0.16; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | K Prop | Martin Perez Under | BRE@BRA | 7:16 PM | 3.5 | 3.5 | +132 | DK Under 3.5 +132 | exact | 0.2% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 5.36 (7 books): market gap +0.13; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | K Prop | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@MAR | 10:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +120 | DK Under 5.5 +120 | exact | 0.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Outs | Jacob Misiorowski Over | BRE@BRA | 7:16 PM | 18.5 | 21.8 | +113 | BetMGM Over 18.5 +125 | best price | 17.9% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at… | Pitcher Outs | Michael Soroka Over | TWI@DIA | 9:46 PM | 17.5 | 19.6 | -155 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -144 | best price | 11.9% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@MAR | 10:11 PM | 17.5 | 15.8 | -106 | BetMGM Under 17.5 +100 | best price | 9.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.33 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +1.81 <= 3 min — posture note a… | Pitcher Outs | Tarik Skubal Over | SOX@TIG | 6:41 PM | 17.5 | 19.1 | -113 | BetOnline Over 16.5 -160 | alt rescue | 9.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Cam Schlittler Over | RED@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.9 | -173 | BetOnline Over 17.5 -165 | best price | 7.7% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Michael McGreevy Under | CAR@ROY | 8:16 PM | 17.5 | 16.8 | -139 | BetMGM Under 17.5 -135 | best price | 3.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.58 (6 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Jacob deGrom Over | PAD@RAN | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 18.0 | -197 | theScore Bet Over 17.5 -185 | best price | 2.8% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Tanner Bibee Over | GUA@AST | 8:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.0 | -126 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -118 | best price | 2.6% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Hits All | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -160 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jose Soriano Under | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -109 | DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact | 10.9% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -159 | DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Randy Vasquez Over | PAD@RAN | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +117 | DK Over 5.5 +117 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Seth Lugo Under | CAR@ROY | 8:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | +113 | DK Under 5.5 +113 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jeffrey Springs Under | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -132 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 3.6% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Connor Prielipp Over | TWI@DIA | 9:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | -130 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -110 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 5.5 (4 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge —… | Pitcher Hits All | Michael McGreevy Under | CAR@ROY | 8:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +109 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +110 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 6.5 (4 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge —… | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Freeland Under | PIR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.5 | -113 | BetMGM Under 6.5 +105 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Michael Soroka Under | TWI@DIA | 9:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -144 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price | 23.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Connor Prielipp Over | TWI@DIA | 9:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -147 | DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact | 21.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Seth Lugo Over | CAR@ROY | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -103 | DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact | 18.0% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Tanner Bibee Over | GUA@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -162 | DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact | 17.9% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Jacob Misiorowski Over | BRE@BRA | 7:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -106 | DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact | 16.9% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Randy Vasquez Under | PAD@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -145 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price | 14.8% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Freeland Under | PIR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -189 | DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact | 14.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Trey Gibson Under | ORI@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -121 | theScore Bet Under 2.5 -120 | best price | 13.1% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -153 | DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact | 11.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Tatsuya Imai Under | GUA@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -147 | DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact | 9.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -133 | DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact | 7.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Griffin Jax Over | NAT@RAY | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +133 | DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact | 4.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Michael McGreevy Under | CAR@ROY | 8:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -130 | DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact | 4.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Jeffrey Springs Under | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -117 | DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact | 3.9% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Cam Schlittler Under | RED@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -108 | DK Under 1.5 -108 | exact | 3.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Ranger Suarez Under | SOX@MAR | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -131 | DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact | 1.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Tarik Skubal Over | SOX@TIG | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +121 | BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price | 33.3% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@MAR | 7:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -148 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Michael Soroka Under | TWI@DIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -165 | DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Jacob deGrom Over | PAD@RAN | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -123 | DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Bryce Miller Over | SOX@MAR | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -122 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Earned R | Randy Vasquez Over | PAD@RAN | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | +103 | DK Over 2.5 +103 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Tatsuya Imai Under | GUA@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -167 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Tanner Bibee Over | GUA@AST | 8:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -128 | DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Trey Gibson Over | ORI@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -136 | DK Over 2.5 -136 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Freeland Under | PIR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | -127 | DK Under 3.5 -127 | exact | 5.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Seth Lugo Over | CAR@ROY | 8:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -104 | DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bubba Chandler Under | PIR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -112 | DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Connor Prielipp Over | TWI@DIA | 9:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -128 | DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Roki Sasaki Under | ORI@DOD | 10:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -160 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -155 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Cam Schlittler Under | RED@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +126 | DK Under 1.5 +126 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Rhett Lowder Under | RED@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | +119 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +120 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Michael McGreevy Under | CAR@ROY | 8:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -113 | BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.7% vs 17% min using blended line 3.36 (7 books) clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Kyle Freeland Over | PIR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 3.5 | 4.1 | -162 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -150 | best price | 16.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.0% vs 17% min using blended line 4.36 (7 books) clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Bubba Chandler Over | PIR@ROC | 8:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -122 | DK Over 4.5 -122 | exact | 16.3% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Tatsuya Imai Over | GUA@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 4.6 | -153 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -144 | best price | 2.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 3.36 (7 books): market gap +0.08; blended market flips the selected Under edge… | K Prop | Randy Vasquez Under | PAD@RAN | 8:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -110 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -105 | best price | 1.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using blended line 6.36 (7 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Cam Schlittler Over | RED@YAN | 7:06 PM | 6.5 | 6.6 | -147 | FanDuel Over 6.5 -132 | best price | 1.1% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jeffrey Springs Over | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -138 | DK Over 2.5 -138 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!✓–✓ | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script