MLB Betting Analyzer — Full Audit

Friday, June 19 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WRReview-only N
K Prop✅ TRUSTED28056%-6.43u5151%-4.42u13160%64
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED23257%+4.28u6746%-12.62u333%6
Run Line✅ TRUSTED13854%-3.08u1759%+0.11u4163%1
Batter Walks👀 WATCH62772%-9.06u58873%-10.60u580%134
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH13260%+4.08u8955%-5.34u1100%9
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH9760%-1.90u6859%-2.62u0-11
Batter Hits👀 WATCH3778%+3.90u1471%+0.28u0-23
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH3155%+0.66u560%+0.50u0-37
F5 ML👀 WATCH2848%+4.54u0-+0.00u0-0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH922%-5.18u0-+0.00u0-0
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-0
NRFI👀 WATCH333%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
YRFI👀 WATCH2100%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-0
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH8243%-13.89u757%-0.15u250%8
Total🔬 RESEARCH5038%-10.52u843%-1.23u1100%7
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH10%-1.00u10%-1.00u0-6
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED48450%-56.69u7758%+0.95u7053%355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/414d P&L non-negative
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/4season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted4/514d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch2/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research3/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

27 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves89.197.195.054-Seam Fastball (44% whiff, 64% usage)Savant whiff 38.7%, put-away 35.9%, xwOBA 0.225, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce MillerSeattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox68.158.686.57Slider (33% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.242, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cam SchlittlerNew York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds64.859.975.054-Seam Fastball (32% whiff, 45% usage)Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.265, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGromTexas Rangers vs San Diego Padres63.974.659.55Changeup (43% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 33.7%, put-away 23.5%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tarik SkubalDetroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox61.762.565.55Changeup (50% whiff, 26% usage)Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kevin GausmanToronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs61.059.365.53Split-Finger (39% whiff, 39% usage)Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Ben BrownChicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays60.358.668.54Curveball (44% whiff, 36% usage)Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 21.7%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
José SorianoLos Angeles Angels vs Athletics57.971.149.05Curveball (45% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 32.9%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins57.654.563.05Curveball (37% whiff, 28% usage)Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ranger SuarezBoston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners55.653.362.06Curveball (42% whiff, 16% usage)Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 22.2%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles53.361.944.53Slider (42% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Griffin JaxTampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals51.467.936.56Sweeper (41% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 31.5%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cade CavalliWashington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays50.155.844.55Curveball (42% whiff, 29% usage)Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael SorokaArizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins49.849.054.56Slurve (33% whiff, 33% usage)Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bubba ChandlerPittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies48.849.948.06Slider (38% whiff, 16% usage)Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Connor PrielippMinnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks47.844.450.05Curveball (34% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jeffrey SpringsAthletics vs Los Angeles Angels47.644.148.55Changeup (39% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner BibeeCleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros46.856.139.56Cutter (38% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.336, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Martín PérezAtlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers46.043.050.55Changeup (32% whiff, 33% usage)Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tatsuya ImaiHouston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians45.256.435.05Slider (37% whiff, 44% usage)Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Rhett LowderCincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees39.443.334.54Slider (38% whiff, 24% usage)Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Erick FeddeChicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers37.329.042.05Changeup (29% whiff, 14% usage)Savant whiff 16.1%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle FreelandColorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates34.343.620.06Sweeper (33% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.375, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Seth LugoKansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals34.037.530.08Cutter (22% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 18.0%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevySt. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals31.138.026.07Changeup (30% whiff, 21% usage)Savant whiff 19.7%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Randy VásquezSan Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers30.743.017.574-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.380, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Trey GibsonBaltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers24.333.513.06Curveball (30% whiff, 15% usage)Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

27 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Michael SorokaArizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota TwinsR22.7%6.45.85.9107deepfull54.5045.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Jeffrey SpringsAthletics vs Los Angeles AngelsL19.7%4.75.35.279shortfull48.5051.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start
Martín PérezAtlanta Braves vs Milwaukee BrewersL21.4%5.15.35.286shortfull50.5049.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Trey GibsonBaltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles DodgersR17.3%3.94.85.165shortfull13.0087.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Ranger SuarezBoston Red Sox vs Seattle MarinersL24.7%5.05.45.384shortfull62.0038.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start
Ben BrownChicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysR24.2%5.65.25.494normalfull68.5031.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handlow-K contact opponent 19.6%
Erick FeddeChicago White Sox vs Detroit TigersR16.7%3.94.94.865shortfull42.0058.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Rhett LowderCincinnati Reds vs New York YankeesR20.3%3.54.74.559shortfull34.5065.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 3.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.2%
Tanner BibeeCleveland Guardians vs Houston AstrosR20.5%6.45.65.8107deepfull39.5060.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Kyle FreelandColorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh PiratesL17.5%4.74.94.879shortfull20.0080.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Tarik SkubalDetroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxL26.0%5.96.06.099normalfull65.5034.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Tatsuya ImaiHouston Astros vs Cleveland GuardiansR22.5%5.03.94.384shortfull35.0065.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Seth LugoKansas City Royals vs St. Louis CardinalsR19.1%5.25.75.687normalfull30.0070.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
José SorianoLos Angeles Angels vs AthleticsR23.9%5.35.86.089normalfull49.0051.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.6%
Roki SasakiLos Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore OriolesR25.4%5.65.25.394normalfull44.5055.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.0%
Jacob MisiorowskiMilwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta BravesR40.0%7.26.26.4121deepfull95.005.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Connor PrielippMinnesota Twins vs Arizona DiamondbacksL21.7%4.85.04.980shortfull50.0050.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 20.0%
Cam SchlittlerNew York Yankees vs Cincinnati RedsR26.2%5.75.96.096normalfull75.0025.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.2%
Bubba ChandlerPittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado RockiesR24.7%5.14.84.986shortfull48.0052.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start
Randy VásquezSan Diego Padres vs Texas RangersR16.4%4.75.35.279shortfull17.5082.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.7 IP/start
Landen RouppSan Francisco Giants vs Miami MarlinsR24.3%4.95.35.282shortfull63.0037.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start
Bryce MillerSeattle Mariners vs Boston Red SoxR28.0%5.86.06.097normalfull86.5013.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Michael McGreevySt. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City RoyalsR15.2%5.45.65.691normalfull26.0074.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Griffin JaxTampa Bay Rays vs Washington NationalsR24.0%4.23.94.170shortfull36.5063.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.2 IP/start
Jacob deGromTexas Rangers vs San Diego PadresR27.8%5.25.55.487normalfull59.5040.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Kevin GausmanToronto Blue Jays vs Chicago CubsR25.8%5.85.86.097normalfull65.5034.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 10.9%
Cade CavalliWashington Nationals vs Tampa Bay RaysR24.4%5.65.05.194normalfull44.5055.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.1%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

7/7 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Michael SorokaMichael Soroka OverMinnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks17.519.62.111.9%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep5.9107season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min
Ranger SuarezRanger Suarez UnderBoston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners17.515.8-1.79.5%CALT_DERISKresearchshort5.384season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tanner BibeeTanner Bibee OverCleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros17.518.30.84.3%CALT_DERISKresearchdeep5.8107season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael McGreevyMichael McGreevy UnderSt. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals17.516.8-0.73.8%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.691season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jacob deGromJacob deGrom OverSan Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers17.518.00.52.8%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal5.487season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cam SchlittlerCam Schlittler OverCincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees18.518.90.31.9%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal6.096season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Kevin GausmanKevin Gausman OverToronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs17.517.80.21.5%CALT_DERISKresearchnormal6.097season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

68 candidates evaluated
← Back to Picks
GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffChecks ✓!✗–Rec
► BEST PLAYS
A✅ Best Play
K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, active roster BVP K% 15.2% over 33 PA, pitch-type boost on 15% usa…
K PropBryce Miller OverSOX@MAR10:11 PM4.56.4-165FanDuel Over 4.5 -160 | best price41.4%BEST PLAY
► GOOD ADDS
B🔬 Research Note
Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup
K PropJose Soriano OverANG@ATH9:41 PM5.57.0+123BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue26.9%!GOOD ADD
B✅ Good Add
Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Hits AllMartin Perez UnderBRE@BRA7:16 PM5.54.1-165DK Under 5.5 -165 | exact25.4%!GOOD ADD
B✅ Good Add
Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Hits AllMichael Soroka UnderTWI@DIA9:46 PM5.54.1-166BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | best price25.4%!GOOD ADD
B✅ Good AddPitcher Hits AllTanner Bibee UnderGUA@AST8:11 PM5.54.5-126DK Under 5.5 -126 | exact18.2%!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Heavy juice (-172); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RCade Cavalli OverNAT@RAY7:11 PM1.52.3-172DK Over 1.5 -172 | exact53.3%!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RTatsuya Imai OverGUA@AST8:11 PM1.52.2-156DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact46.7%!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RJose Soriano UnderANG@ATH9:41 PM3.52.2-161DK Under 3.5 -161 | exact37.1%!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RJacob Misiorowski UnderBRE@BRA7:16 PM1.51.0-154DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact33.3%!GOOD ADD
B👀 WatchPitcher Earned RGriffin Jax OverNAT@RAY7:11 PM1.51.9-119DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact26.7%!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Earned RKevin Gausman UnderJAY@CUB2:21 PM2.52.0-148DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact20.0%!!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RRanger Suarez UnderSOX@MAR10:11 PM2.52.0-165DK Under 2.5 -165 | exact20.0%!GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)↘ Alt / Derisk
Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not…
K PropKevin Gausman OverJAY@CUB2:21 PM5.57.0-103DK Over 5.5 -103 | exact27.0%ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)↘ Alt / Derisk
Books strongly against: blended market against 47.8% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note…
K PropJacob Misiorowski OverBRE@BRA7:16 PM8.510.7+102DK Over 8.5 +102 | exact26.3%ALT / DERISK
B (Weak)↘ Alt / Derisk
Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture not…
K PropJacob deGrom OverPAD@RAN8:06 PM6.58.0+105DK Over 6.5 +105 | exact23.7%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 17% min using blended line 3.9 (5 books) — posture note at D
K PropMartin Perez UnderBRE@BRA7:16 PM4.53.6-165DK Under 4.5 -165 | exact20.7%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using blended line 3.67 (6 books) — posture note at D
K PropConnor Prielipp UnderTWI@DIA9:46 PM4.53.6-171DK Under 4.5 -171 | exact20.3%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (6 books) clears, but raw gap -0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropSeth Lugo UnderCAR@ROY8:16 PM4.53.7-149FanDuel Under 4.5 -144 | best price18.6%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using blended line 4 (6 books) — posture note at D
K PropKyle Freeland OverPIR@ROC8:41 PM3.54.1-166FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | best price16.3%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
K PropTrey Gibson UnderORI@DOD10:11 PM3.53.0-139BetMGM Under 3.5 -125 | best price15.4%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using blended line 4.36 (7 books) — posture note at D
K PropRhett Lowder UnderRED@YAN7:06 PM4.54.0-144DK Under 4.5 -144 | exact12.3%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (7 books) — posture note at D
K PropTarik Skubal OverSOX@TIG6:41 PM6.57.2-140FanDuel Over 6.5 -114 | best price10.8%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using blended line 6.33 (6 books) — posture note at D
K PropRoki Sasaki OverORI@DOD10:11 PM6.57.0+116BetMGM Over 5.5 -145 | alt rescue8.2%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 17% min using blended line 5.17 (6 books) — posture note at D
K PropJeffrey Springs UnderANG@ATH9:41 PM5.55.1-133DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact7.6%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
K PropMichael Soroka OverTWI@DIA9:46 PM5.55.9+110FanDuel Over 5.5 +116 | best price7.4%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (7 books) — posture note at D
K PropRandy Vasquez UnderPAD@RAN8:06 PM3.53.2-104DK Under 3.5 -104 | exact7.4%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (7 books) — posture note at D
K PropCade Cavalli OverNAT@RAY7:11 PM4.54.8-113Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -105 | best price6.6%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
K PropMichael McGreevy OverCAR@ROY8:16 PM3.53.7-110FanDuel Over 3.5 +108 | best price5.9%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (7 books) — posture note at D
K PropTatsuya Imai UnderGUA@AST8:11 PM4.54.3+114FanDuel Under 4.5 +118 | best price3.5%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using blended line 4.64 (7 books) — posture note at D
K PropTanner Bibee OverGUA@AST8:11 PM4.54.7-161BetMGM Over 4.5 -140 | best price3.2%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.08 <= 3 min — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsMichael Soroka OverTWI@DIA9:46 PM17.519.6-152DK Over 17.5 -152 | exact11.9%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsRanger Suarez UnderSOX@MAR10:11 PM17.515.8-128DK Under 17.5 -128 | exact9.5%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsTanner Bibee OverGUA@AST8:11 PM17.518.3-113Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -110 | best price4.3%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsMichael McGreevy UnderCAR@ROY8:16 PM17.516.8-110DK Under 17.5 -110 | exact3.8%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsJacob deGrom OverPAD@RAN8:06 PM17.518.0-188DK Over 17.5 -188 | exact2.8%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsCam Schlittler OverRED@YAN7:06 PM18.518.9+128Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +130 | best price1.9%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher OutsKevin Gausman OverJAY@CUB2:21 PM17.517.8-149DK Over 17.5 -149 | exact1.5%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllJose Soriano UnderANG@ATH9:41 PM5.55.0-101DK Under 5.5 -101 | exact9.1%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllTrey Gibson UnderORI@DOD10:11 PM5.55.1-169BetMGM Under 5.5 -160 | best price7.3%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 5.17 (3 books): market gap +0.03; blended market flips the selected Under edge…
Pitcher Hits AllRanger Suarez UnderSOX@MAR10:11 PM5.55.2-152DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact5.5%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllRandy Vasquez OverPAD@RAN8:06 PM5.55.7+115DK Over 5.5 +115 | exact3.6%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllJeffrey Springs UnderANG@ATH9:41 PM5.55.3-105DK Under 5.5 -105 | exact3.6%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllMichael McGreevy UnderCAR@ROY8:16 PM5.55.4-104BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price1.8%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllSeth Lugo OverCAR@ROY8:16 PM5.55.6-146BetMGM Over 5.5 -140 | best price1.8%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllConnor Prielipp OverTWI@DIA9:46 PM5.55.6-130BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price1.8%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using blended line 6.5 (3 books) — posture note at D
Pitcher Hits AllKyle Freeland UnderPIR@ROC8:41 PM6.56.4+116DK Under 6.5 +116 | exact1.5%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)
Pitcher Earned RTarik Skubal OverSOX@TIG6:41 PM1.52.0+135DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact33.3%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / DeriskPitcher Earned RMichael Soroka UnderTWI@DIA9:46 PM2.52.1-175DK Under 2.5 -175 | exact16.0%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher Earned RJacob deGrom OverPAD@RAN8:06 PM1.51.7-124DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact13.3%!!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / DeriskPitcher Earned RMartin Perez UnderBRE@BRA7:16 PM2.52.2-163DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact12.0%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)
Pitcher Earned RRandy Vasquez OverPAD@RAN8:06 PM2.52.8+100DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact12.0%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RKyle Freeland UnderPIR@ROC8:41 PM3.53.2-114DK Under 3.5 -114 | exact8.6%ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RTanner Bibee OverGUA@AST8:11 PM2.52.7-126DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact8.0%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RSeth Lugo OverCAR@ROY8:16 PM2.52.7-117DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact8.0%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RJeffrey Springs OverANG@ATH9:41 PM2.52.7-141DK Over 2.5 -141 | exact8.0%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RTrey Gibson OverORI@DOD10:11 PM2.52.7-159DK Over 2.5 -159 | exact8.0%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RBen Brown OverJAY@CUB2:21 PM1.51.6-161DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact6.7%!!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RConnor Prielipp OverTWI@DIA9:46 PM2.52.6-123DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact4.0%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RRoki Sasaki UnderORI@DOD10:11 PM2.52.4-145DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact4.0%!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RCam Schlittler UnderRED@YAN7:06 PM1.51.5+123DK Under 1.5 +123 | exact-ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RRhett Lowder UnderRED@YAN7:06 PM2.52.5+108DK Under 2.5 +108 | exact-ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RMichael McGreevy UnderCAR@ROY8:16 PM2.52.5-119DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact-!ALT / DERISK
C (Review)↘ Alt / Derisk
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D
Pitcher Earned RBubba Chandler UnderPIR@ROC8:41 PM2.52.5-144DK Under 2.5 -144 | exact-!ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
B (Review)◇ Monitor
Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.0% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D
K PropBubba Chandler OverPIR@ROC8:41 PM4.55.3-144BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price17.9%MONITOR
B (Review)◇ Monitor
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (7 books) — posture note at D
K PropGriffin Jax OverNAT@RAY7:11 PM4.55.1-116FanDuel Over 4.5 -110 | best price13.1%MONITOR
B (Review)◇ Monitor
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (7 books) — posture note at D
K PropBen Brown OverJAY@CUB2:21 PM4.54.8-133FanDuel Over 4.5 -110 | best price7.3%MONITOR
B (Review)◇ Monitor
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (7 books) — posture note at D
K PropCam Schlittler OverRED@YAN7:06 PM6.56.6-154FanDuel Over 6.5 -124 | best price1.1%MONITOR
B (Review)◇ Monitor
Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books) — posture note at D
K PropRanger Suarez OverSOX@MAR10:11 PM5.55.5-130BetOnline Over 5.5 -130 | best price0.5%MONITOR

✓ PASS   ! WARN   ✗ FAIL   – N/A  |  Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script