| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 279 | 56% | -5.43u | 50 | 52% | -3.42u | 131 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 228 | 57% | +4.94u | 72 | 46% | -13.94u | 2 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 138 | 54% | -3.08u | 19 | 63% | +1.48u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 590 | 73% | -12.60u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 129 | 59% | +2.09u | 91 | 54% | -7.36u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 95 | 59% | -3.02u | 74 | 59% | -1.69u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 14 | 71% | +0.28u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 5 | 60% | +0.50u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 82 | 43% | -13.89u | 7 | 57% | -0.15u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 8 | 43% | -1.23u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 77 | 58% | +0.95u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 4/5 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 3/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians | 66.1 | 64.6 | 71.0 | 6 | Slider (40% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.273, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | 64.0 | 62.3 | 67.5 | 3 | Split-Finger (41% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | 58.2 | 53.7 | 67.0 | 6 | Sweeper (34% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | 57.6 | 54.5 | 63.0 | 5 | Curveball (37% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | 57.3 | 54.4 | 63.5 | 6 | Changeup (42% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles | 56.9 | 51.9 | 64.5 | 5 | Sweeper (37% whiff, 14% usage) | Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | 56.5 | 50.9 | 65.0 | 5 | Slider (26% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | 53.0 | 61.0 | 46.0 | 5 | Sweeper (44% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jack Leiter | Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins | 48.9 | 56.7 | 41.0 | 6 | Slider (34% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | 48.7 | 48.9 | 47.5 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | 48.4 | 48.8 | 48.5 | 5 | Sweeper (32% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 47.8 | 42.9 | 52.5 | 6 | Slider (31% whiff, 17% usage) | Savant whiff 21.5%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | 47.0 | 48.5 | 44.0 | 6 | Curveball (37% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | 46.0 | 43.0 | 50.5 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | 45.9 | 44.1 | 49.0 | 6 | Sweeper (36% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | 40.1 | 41.2 | 38.5 | 5 | Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | 38.1 | 44.8 | 28.0 | 7 | Curveball (38% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gage Jump | Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 21.3% | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 97 | normal | full | 65.00 | 35.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Martín Pérez | Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | L | 21.4% | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 86 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Shane Baz | Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | R | 19.2% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 101 | deep | full | 38.50 | 61.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sonny Gray | Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | R | 22.3% | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 94 | normal | full | 49.00 | 51.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | low-K contact opponent 19.7% |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | R | 25.2% | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 82 | short | full | 52.50 | 47.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.3% |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | L | 24.0% | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 86 | short | full | 63.50 | 36.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9% |
| Noah Cameron | Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals | L | 23.2% | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 94 | normal | full | 47.50 | 52.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Shane Drohan | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians | L | 24.8% | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 67 | short | full | 71.00 | 29.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Joe Ryan | Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | R | 28.9% | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 104 | deep | full | 67.00 | 33.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Sean Manaea | New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | L | 24.4% | 4.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 70 | short | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.2 IP/start |
| Ryan Weathers | New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | L | 24.7% | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 96 | normal | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | R | 23.0% | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 82 | short | full | 44.00 | 56.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Landen Roupp | San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | R | 24.3% | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 25.1% | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 96 | normal | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.0% |
| Matthew Liberatore | St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | L | 24.3% | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 76 | short | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Jack Leiter | Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins | R | 22.2% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 86 | short | full | 41.00 | 59.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.1 IP/start |
| Trey Yesavage | Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | R | 22.9% | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 92 | normal | full | 67.50 | 32.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Leiter | Jack Leiter Under | Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 14.7 | -2.8 | 16.1% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | short | 5.4 | 86 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.1% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -2.81 <= 3 min |
| Sonny Gray | Sonny Gray Under | Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox | 17.5 | 15.9 | -1.6 | 9.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.3 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) |
| Joe Ryan | Joe Ryan Over | Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers | 17.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | 8.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.0 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) |
| Bryan Woo | Bryan Woo Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners | 18.5 | 17.5 | -1.0 | 5.5% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (3 books) |
| Ryan Weathers | Ryan Weathers Over | Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.2 | 1.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 96 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) |
| Shane Baz | Shane Baz Under | Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.1 | 0.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.9 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) |
| Noah Cameron | Noah Cameron Under | St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals | 17.5 | 16.6 | -0.9 | 5.1% | B | MONITOR | research | normal | 5.4 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► BEST PLAYS | ||||||||||||
| A | ✅ Best Play A-tier prop gate: 50% consensus; needs diff_pct >= 18.8% and raw gap >= 0.50 for Grade A (got 16.4%, 0.90) | Pitcher Hits All | Noah Cameron Under | CAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -121 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 16.4% | ✓✓✓––✓ | BEST PLAY |
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Shane Baz Under | ORI@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -109 | DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact | 23.2% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Sean Manaea Under | MET@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 3.8 | -140 | DK Under 5.5 -140 | exact | 30.9% | ✓✓✓––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Hits All | Joe Ryan Under | TWI@RAN | 2:36 PM | 5.5 | 4.1 | -160 | DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact | 25.4% | ✓✓✓––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Gage Jump Under | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.5 | -140 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 18.2% | ✓✓!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-174); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Joe Ryan Under | TWI@RAN | 2:36 PM | 2.5 | 1.9 | -174 | DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact | 24.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Gage Jump Under | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -133 | DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––✓ | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.0% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (4 books) clears, but raw gap -0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Martin Perez Under | GIA@BRA | 7:16 PM | 4.5 | 3.5 | -135 | DK Under 4.5 -135 | exact | 22.1% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using blended line 5.3 (5 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Landen Roupp Under | GIA@BRA | 7:16 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -162 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -162 | best price | 16.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Shane Drohan Under | GUA@BRE | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.6 | -140 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -120 | best price | 16.6% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (5 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Nola Under | MET@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -144 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 14.0% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (5 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Noah Cameron Under | CAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 3.9 | -133 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -122 | best price | 12.4% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (5 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Sean Burke Under | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -140 | Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 12.3% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is below blended line 5.1 (5 books): market gap -0.10; blended market flips the selected Over edge —… | K Prop | Sean Manaea Over | MET@PHI | 6:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.0 | -162 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | best price | 11.1% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 17% min using blended line 5.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Parker Messick Under | GUA@BRE | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.9 | -118 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -114 | best price | 11.0% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (5 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Matthew Liberatore Under | CAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.1 | -144 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -134 | best price | 8.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Jack Leiter Under | TWI@RAN | 2:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -121 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -105 | best price | 5.9% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using blended line 6.1 (5 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryan Weathers Over | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | +113 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -150 | alt rescue | 4.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Bryan Woo Over | ORI@MAR | 4:11 PM | 6.5 | 6.8 | +101 | FanDuel Over 6.5 +104 | best price | 4.5% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Sonny Gray Under | JAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 4.5 | 4.4 | -123 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -122 | best price | 2.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.1% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap -2.81 <= 3 min — posture note at… | Pitcher Outs | Jack Leiter Under | TWI@RAN | 2:36 PM | 17.5 | 14.7 | +113 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +116 | best price | 16.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Sonny Gray Under | JAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 17.5 | 15.9 | -107 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +100 | best price | 9.3% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Joe Ryan Over | TWI@RAN | 2:36 PM | 17.5 | 19.0 | -177 | DK Over 17.5 -177 | exact | 8.6% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 10% min using blended line 18.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Bryan Woo Under | ORI@MAR | 4:11 PM | 18.5 | 17.5 | -186 | Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -175 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ryan Weathers Over | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.7 | -131 | DK Over 17.5 -131 | exact | 1.3% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shane Baz Under | ORI@MAR | 4:11 PM | 17.5 | 17.4 | +101 | FanDuel Under 17.5 +114 | best price | 0.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 15% min using blended line 5.17 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Ryan Weathers Under | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.0 | -143 | DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact | 9.1% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Aaron Nola Under | MET@PHI | 6:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.1 | -155 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price | 7.3% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane Baz Under | ORI@MAR | 4:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -154 | DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 15% min using blended line 5.17 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Matthew Liberatore Over | CAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.6 | +110 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue | 1.8% | ✓✗✗––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Parker Messick Over | GUA@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -162 | DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact | 20.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Jack Leiter Over | TWI@RAN | 2:36 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | +102 | DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books) | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Manaea Under | MET@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -103 | DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Drohan Over | GUA@BRE | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -161 | DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Shane Baz Over | ORI@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -107 | DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Noah Cameron Under | CAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -141 | DK Under 2.5 -141 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Bryan Woo Under | ORI@MAR | 4:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -167 | DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Sean Burke Under | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -105 | DK Under 2.5 -105 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Nola Under | MET@PHI | 6:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -112 | DK Under 2.5 -112 | exact | - | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Ryan Weathers Under | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -143 | DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Matthew Liberatore Under | CAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -145 | DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact | - | ✓✗!––✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Joe Ryan Over | TWI@RAN | 2:36 PM | 6.5 | 7.3 | -124 | DK Over 6.5 -124 | exact | 11.9% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Gage Jump Over | ANG@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | -133 | BetMGM Over 5.5 -105 | best price | 8.0% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using blended line 4.83 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Trey Yesavage Over | JAY@SOX | 1:36 PM | 5.5 | 5.5 | +125 | BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue | 0.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Noah Cameron Under | CAR@ROY | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.6 | -116 | FanDuel Under 17.5 -114 | best price | 5.1% | ✓✗✓––✓ | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script