| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 278 | 56% | -6.11u | 49 | 51% | -4.09u | 131 | 60% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 224 | 58% | +6.90u | 71 | 49% | -9.46u | 2 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 137 | 54% | -3.73u | 22 | 64% | +2.02u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 627 | 72% | -9.06u | 596 | 73% | -13.41u | 5 | 80% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 121 | 57% | -2.21u | 84 | 51% | -11.00u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 91 | 59% | -2.07u | 72 | 60% | -1.14u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 16 | 75% | +1.05u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 31 | 55% | +0.66u | 5 | 60% | +0.50u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 82 | 43% | -13.89u | 7 | 57% | -0.15u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 50 | 38% | -10.52u | 8 | 43% | -1.23u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 484 | 50% | -56.69u | 77 | 58% | +0.95u | 70 | 53% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 1/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52% |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 3/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays | 72.6 | 72.6 | 79.5 | 7 | Sweeper (38% whiff, 31% usage) | Savant whiff 31.5%, put-away 25.8%, xwOBA 0.256, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Sean Sullivan | Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | 70.7 | 47.0 | 100.0 | 4 | Sweeper (100% whiff, 10% usage) | Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 10.5%, xwOBA 0.145, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | 69.7 | 66.8 | 78.5 | 5 | Slider (35% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 25.3%, xwOBA 0.258, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | 64.5 | 63.0 | 70.0 | 5 | Curveball (40% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 24.6%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | 60.4 | 61.5 | 64.5 | 5 | Changeup (36% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | 56.2 | 54.2 | 63.0 | 6 | Curveball (40% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.289, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 55.3 | 60.4 | 56.0 | 4 | Changeup (35% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | 53.3 | 66.9 | 43.0 | 5 | Sweeper (44% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 30.1%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | 52.9 | 52.3 | 54.0 | 6 | Changeup (40% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles | 50.9 | 44.0 | 58.0 | 6 | Sweeper (27% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | 49.0 | 51.9 | 45.5 | 4 | Curveball (41% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | 48.5 | 42.7 | 53.0 | 7 | Changeup (30% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | 47.7 | 56.0 | 40.0 | 6 | Slider (41% whiff, 40% usage) | Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Sam Aldegheri | Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.3 | 38.3 | 55.0 | 5 | Changeup (40% whiff, 33% usage) | Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | 44.9 | 49.2 | 37.0 | 5 | Slider (38% whiff, 25% usage) | Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 15.9%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| JR Ritchie | Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | 44.1 | 42.7 | 44.5 | 6 | Curveball (38% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | 42.2 | 44.1 | 36.5 | 6 | Slider (38% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | 41.0 | 30.0 | 48.5 | 6 | Changeup (31% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 11.3%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians | 40.8 | 47.9 | 31.0 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Javier Assad | Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | 39.0 | 26.9 | 53.0 | 7 | Cutter (13% whiff, 16% usage) | Savant whiff 14.6%, put-away 14.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels | 37.1 | 39.1 | 37.0 | 5 | 4-Seam Fastball (22% whiff, 39% usage) | Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Aaron Civale | Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 35.8 | 35.5 | 32.5 | 6 | Curveball (27% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 35.1 | 42.8 | 25.0 | 6 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 21% usage) | Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.365, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Adrian Houser | San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | 33.8 | 34.4 | 28.0 | 5 | Changeup (32% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets | 33.1 | 40.1 | 18.5 | 4 | Curveball (34% whiff, 26% usage) | Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.378, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | 30.0 | 44.8 | 13.0 | 6 | Changeup (42% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Max Scherzer | Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | 27.1 | 27.6 | 18.5 | 5 | Slider (22% whiff, 23% usage) | Savant whiff 17.1%, put-away 9.8%, xwOBA 0.378, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Zack Littell | Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals | 25.2 | 29.9 | 15.5 | 5 | Slider (22% whiff, 29% usage) | Savant whiff 15.9%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.384, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels | L | 18.1% | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 92 | normal | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Aaron Civale | Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 16.3% | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 32.50 | 67.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Grant Holmes | Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | R | 21.4% | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 82 | short | full | 40.00 | 60.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| JR Ritchie | Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | R | 20.2% | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 77 | short | full | 44.50 | 55.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.6 IP/start |
| Kyle Bradish | Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | R | 20.9% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 87 | normal | full | 45.50 | 54.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jake Bennett | Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | L | 17.7% | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 84 | short | full | 48.50 | 51.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.5% |
| Javier Assad | Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | R | 19.5% | 3.7 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 62 | short | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.7 IP/start |
| Anthony Kay | Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | L | 19.6% | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 84 | short | full | 25.00 | 75.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 11.3% |
| Nick Lodolo | Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets | L | 19.1% | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 92 | normal | full | 18.50 | 81.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | R | 28.3% | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 104 | deep | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.9% |
| Sean Sullivan | Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | L | 22.3% | - | 3.0 | 5.5 | 92 | short | full | 100.00 | 0.00 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | season leash 3.0 IP/GS, patient opponent BB% 10.9%, recent_form_unavailable |
| Casey Mize | Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | R | 25.4% | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 82 | short | full | 78.50 | 21.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Peter Lambert | Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | R | 21.6% | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 91 | normal | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Luinder Avila | Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | R | 20.6% | 3.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 60 | short | full | 37.00 | 63.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.6 IP/start |
| Sam Aldegheri | Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | L | 19.7% | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 55 | short | full | 55.00 | 45.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.3 IP/start |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays | R | 26.8% | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 101 | deep | full | 79.50 | 20.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.6%, low-K contact opponent 19.1% |
| Sandy Alcantara | Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 18.1% | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 111 | deep | full | 53.00 | 47.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Brandon Sproat | Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians | R | 21.2% | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 79 | short | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 25.3% | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 79 | short | full | 63.00 | 37.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3% |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | L | 25.3% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 87 | normal | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Andrew Painter | Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | R | 17.1% | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 82 | short | full | 36.50 | 63.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | R | 26.5% | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 97 | normal | full | 70.00 | 30.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Adrian Houser | San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | R | 18.6% | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 72 | short | full | 28.00 | 72.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.3 IP/start |
| George Kirby | Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles | R | 21.7% | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 89 | normal | full | 58.00 | 42.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.1% |
| Kyle Leahy | St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | R | 18.5% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 80 | short | full | 13.00 | 87.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | L | 23.8% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 80 | short | full | 56.00 | 44.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.5% |
| Max Scherzer | Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | R | 17.4% | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 52 | short | full | 18.50 | 81.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.1 IP/start |
| Zack Littell | Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals | R | 16.5% | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 80 | short | full | 15.50 | 84.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.8 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Sandy Alcantara Over | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | 17.5 | 20.5 | 3.0 | 17.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.5 | 111 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using blended line 18.25 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min |
| Gavin Williams | Gavin Williams Over | Cleveland Guardians @ Milwaukee Brewers | 17.5 | 20.3 | 2.9 | 16.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books) clears, but raw gap +2.85 <= 3 min |
| Shohei Ohtani | Shohei Ohtani Over | Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 17.5 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 9.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.1 | 101 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.75 (6 books) |
| George Kirby | George Kirby Over | Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners | 17.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 2.8% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 6.0 | 89 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books) |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Javier Assad Under | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | 4.5 | 2.5 | -148 | BetRivers Under 4.5 -129 | best price | 44.5% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Hits All | Javier Assad Under | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | 3.0 | +104 | DK Under 5.5 +104 | exact | 45.5% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Samuel Aldegheri Under | ANG@DIA | 3:41 PM | 5.5 | 3.7 | -122 | DK Under 5.5 -122 | exact | 32.7% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Zack Littell Under | ROY@NAT | 1:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.0 | -115 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 27.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add | Pitcher Hits All | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | ANG@DIA | 3:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.4 | -128 | DK Under 5.5 -128 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-251); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Zack Littell Over | ROY@NAT | 1:06 PM | 0.5 | 1.5 | -251 | theScore Bet Over 0.5 -240 | best price | 203.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Walks | Peter Lambert Over | TIG@AST | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -188 | DK Over 1.5 -188 | exact | 69.9% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Walks | Nick Lodolo Over | MET@RED | 12:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | -155 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price | 26.2% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Walks | Kyle Leahy Over | PAD@CAR | 2:16 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -117 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price | 21.4% | ✓!!✓–✓ | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Brandon Sproat Over | GUA@BRE | 7:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | -166 | DK Over 1.5 -166 | exact | 73.3% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-173); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | George Kirby Over | ORI@MAR | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | -173 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 60.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Samuel Aldegheri Under | ANG@DIA | 3:41 PM | 3.5 | 1.8 | -154 | DK Under 3.5 -154 | exact | 48.6% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Heavy juice (-162); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution | Pitcher Earned R | Carlos Rodon Over | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -162 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price | 40.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Javier Assad Under | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | 2.5 | 1.8 | -107 | DK Under 2.5 -107 | exact | 28.0% | ✓✓!––! | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Shane McClanahan Under | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -139 | DK Under 2.5 -139 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Nick Lodolo Over | MET@RED | 12:41 PM | 2.5 | 3.0 | -109 | DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 👀 Watch | Pitcher Earned R | Braxton Ashcraft Under | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.0 | -108 | DK Under 2.5 -108 | exact | 20.0% | ✓✓!––– | GOOD ADD |
| B | ✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution | Run Line | Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | - | -155 | BetMGM Tampa Bay Rays 1.5 -150 | best price | +6.0% | –!✓✓–✓ | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 45.0% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture not… | K Prop | Shohei Ohtani Over | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 6.5 | 7.0 | +112 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -148 | alt rescue | 8.3% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Casey Mize Over | TIG@AST | 2:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.9 | +110 | BetMGM Over 4.5 +120 | best price | 30.2% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Carlos Rodon Over | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 7.1 | -146 | DK Over 5.5 -146 | exact | 28.8% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 23.7% vs 17% min using blended line 3.33 (6 books) clears, but raw gap -0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Max Scherzer Under | JAY@SOX | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 2.5 | -112 | BetMGM Under 3.5 -110 | best price | 27.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 17% min using blended line 3.3 (5 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Jake Bennett Under | JAY@SOX | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -166 | BetRivers Under 3.5 -159 | best price | 17.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@BRE | 7:41 PM | 6.5 | 7.6 | -113 | BetRivers Over 6.5 +100 | best price | 16.9% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | Braxton Ashcraft Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | -117 | FanDuel Over 5.5 -104 | best price | 16.9% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.8% vs 17% min using blended line 4.33 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -124 | BetRivers Over 4.5 -122 | best price | 16.2% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.9% vs 17% min using blended line 4.33 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Shane McClanahan Over | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | -113 | BetMGM Over 4.5 +100 | best price | 15.3% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using blended line 5.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Lodolo Under | MET@RED | 12:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -141 | BetRivers Under 5.5 -136 | best price | 14.1% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using blended line 6 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Nolan McLean Under | MET@RED | 12:41 PM | 6.5 | 5.7 | -150 | DK Under 6.5 -150 | exact | 12.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 17% min using blended line 4.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Anthony Kay Under | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.2 | -110 | DK Under 4.5 -110 | exact | 7.6% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using blended line 5.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Peter Lambert Over | TIG@AST | 2:11 PM | 5.5 | 5.9 | +114 | BetRivers Over 5.5 +125 | best price | 7.6% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using blended line 6.17 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | George Kirby Under | ORI@MAR | 9:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.1 | -140 | DK Under 6.5 -140 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using blended line 3.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Zack Littell Under | ROY@NAT | 1:06 PM | 3.5 | 3.3 | -145 | DK Under 3.5 -145 | exact | 6.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using blended line 3.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Aaron Civale Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 3.5 | 3.6 | -115 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -105 | best price | 2.4% | ✓✗✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.6% vs 10% min using blended line 18.25 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min — posture note a… | Pitcher Outs | Sandy Alcantara Over | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | 17.5 | 20.5 | -149 | DK Over 17.5 -149 | exact | 17.4% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 16.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books) clears, but raw gap +2.85 <= 3 min — posture note at… | Pitcher Outs | Gavin Williams Over | GUA@BRE | 7:41 PM | 17.5 | 20.3 | -125 | DK Over 17.5 -125 | exact | 16.3% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.75 (6 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shohei Ohtani Over | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 17.5 | 19.2 | -157 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -152 | best price | 9.8% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (5 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | George Kirby Over | ORI@MAR | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 18.0 | -151 | FanDuel Over 17.5 -148 | best price | 2.8% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Hits All | George Kirby Over | ORI@MAR | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 6.4 | +123 | Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125 | best price | 16.4% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Hits All | Max Scherzer Under | JAY@SOX | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -152 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Hits All | Anthony Kay Under | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -145 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -140 | best price | 14.5% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 15% min using blended line 5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Shane McClanahan Under | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 5.5 | 4.8 | -162 | DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact | 12.7% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 15% min using blended line 6.25 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | 6.5 | 5.7 | -125 | DK Under 6.5 -125 | exact | 12.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Andrew Painter Over | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | 5.5 | 5.8 | +111 | DK Over 5.5 +111 | exact | 5.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Jake Bennett Under | JAY@SOX | 6:46 PM | 5.5 | 5.2 | -153 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 5.5% | ✓✗✓––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Kyle Leahy Under | PAD@CAR | 2:16 PM | 5.5 | 5.3 | -127 | DK Under 5.5 -127 | exact | 3.6% | ✓✗!!–! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Nick Lodolo Under | MET@RED | 12:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | -127 | BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using blended line 5.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Hits All | Braxton Ashcraft Under | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 5.4 | +103 | DK Under 5.5 +103 | exact | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | Pitcher Walks | Shane McClanahan Over | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +132 | DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact | 20.5% | ✓!✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Walks | Samuel Aldegheri Over | ANG@DIA | 3:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -195 | DK Over 1.5 -195 | exact | 14.6% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Casey Mize Over | TIG@AST | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +105 | DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact | 11.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Shohei Ohtani Under | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -190 | DK Under 2.5 -190 | exact | 9.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Andrew Painter Over | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -136 | theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price | 6.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | ANG@DIA | 3:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.3 | -188 | DK Under 2.5 -188 | exact | 6.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -122 | theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price | 1.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Walks | Nolan McLean Under | MET@RED | 12:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -186 | DK Under 2.5 -186 | exact | 1.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Sandy Alcantara Under | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | 3.5 | 2.9 | -147 | DK Under 3.5 -147 | exact | 17.1% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Nolan McLean Under | MET@RED | 12:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.1 | -150 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -145 | best price | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Andrew Painter Over | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.9 | -113 | DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact | 16.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x) | Pitcher Earned R | Casey Mize Over | TIG@AST | 2:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -153 | BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price | 13.3% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Shohei Ohtani Over | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | -111 | DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact | 13.3% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Zack Littell Over | ROY@NAT | 1:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -149 | DK Over 2.5 -149 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x) | Pitcher Earned R | Max Scherzer Over | JAY@SOX | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.8 | -119 | DK Over 2.5 -119 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Pitcher Earned R | Gavin Williams Under | GUA@BRE | 7:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.2 | -148 | DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact | 12.0% | ✓!!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Anthony Kay Over | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 2.5 | 2.7 | -134 | DK Over 2.5 -134 | exact | 8.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Leahy Over | PAD@CAR | 2:16 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -117 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -105 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗✗✓–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | ANG@DIA | 3:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -118 | DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Jake Bennett Under | JAY@SOX | 6:46 PM | 2.5 | 2.4 | -134 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Aaron Civale Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.6 | -139 | BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | best price | 4.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Peter Lambert Under | TIG@AST | 2:11 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -121 | BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price | - | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D | Pitcher Earned R | Kyle Bradish Under | ORI@MAR | 9:41 PM | 2.5 | 2.5 | -147 | DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact | - | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL | ↘ Alt / Derisk | No HR | No HR (Game) | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 0.5 | 0.2 | -110 | DraftKings 0.5 -110 | 0.1% | ✓––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL | ↘ Alt / Derisk | No HR | Under 1.5 HR (Game) | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 1.5 | 0.5 | -110 | DraftKings 1.5 -110 | 0.1% | ✓––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Total | Over 7.0 | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | 7.0 | - | -121 | Fanatics Over 7 -120 | best price | +20.5% | –✓!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Total | Over 8.5 | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | 8.5 | - | -107 | LowVig Over 8.5 -102 | best price | +18.5% | –✓–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Total | Over 7.5 | GUA@BRE | 7:41 PM | 7.5 | - | -112 | Caesars Over 7.5 -110 | best price | +18.0% | –✓–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 6.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | - | 6.9 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -10.8% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | GUA@BRE | 7:41 PM | - | 5.8 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -24.5% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | - | 4.7 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -39.1% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ORI@MAR | 9:41 PM | - | 4.6 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -39.7% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | TIG@AST | 2:11 PM | - | 4.6 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -40.5% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | PAD@CAR | 2:16 PM | - | 4.3 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -44.0% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | MET@RED | 12:41 PM | - | 4.3 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -44.4% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | - | 3.5 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -54.3% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | JAY@SOX | 6:46 PM | - | 3.3 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -57.1% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ROY@NAT | 1:06 PM | - | 2.6 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -65.8% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ANG@DIA | 3:41 PM | - | 2.6 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -66.2% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | - | 2.3 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -69.6% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | - | 2.3 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -70.3% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | - | 7.7 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | 0.1% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | SOX@YAN | 7:06 PM | - | 7.7 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -0.5% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | ANG@DIA | 3:41 PM | - | 7.4 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -3.9% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | ROY@NAT | 1:06 PM | - | 7.4 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -4.3% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | JAY@SOX | 6:46 PM | - | 6.7 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -13.0% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | - | 6.5 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -15.8% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | MET@RED | 12:41 PM | - | 5.7 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -25.7% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | TIG@AST | 2:11 PM | - | 5.4 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -29.6% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | ORI@MAR | 9:41 PM | - | 5.4 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -30.4% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | - | 5.3 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -31.0% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | PAD@CAR | 2:16 PM | - | 5.0 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -35.2% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | GUA@BRE | 7:41 PM | - | 4.2 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -45.6% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | RAY@DOD | 3:11 PM | - | 3.1 | -110 | DraftKings -110 | -59.4% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using blended line 4.67 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Eduardo Rodriguez Under | ANG@DIA | 3:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.2 | -151 | DK Under 5.5 -151 | exact | 22.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.8% vs 17% min using blended line 3.33 (6 books) clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at… | K Prop | Andrew Painter Over | MAR@PHI | 1:06 PM | 3.5 | 4.2 | -140 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -134 | best price | 19.8% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 17% min using blended line 5.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Bradish Under | ORI@MAR | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | 4.7 | -111 | BetRivers Under 5.5 -106 | best price | 14.6% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.0% vs 17% min using blended line 3.3 (5 books) clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D | K Prop | Kyle Leahy Over | PAD@CAR | 2:16 PM | 3.5 | 4.0 | -143 | FanDuel Over 3.5 -134 | best price | 13.0% | ✓✗✓✓–✓ | MONITOR |
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using blended line 4.33 (6 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Brandon Sproat Under | GUA@BRE | 7:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.0 | +104 | DK Under 4.5 +104 | exact | 11.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script