MLB Full Audit Tuesday, June 16 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	271	56%	-6.17u	46	52%	-2.86u	130	59%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	218	58%	+7.63u	68	50%	-8.48u	2	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	135	54%	-3.47u	23	61%	+1.09u	41	63%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	619	72%	-11.15u	589	72%	-14.83u	5	80%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	112	56%	-3.60u	81	51%	-11.32u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	91	59%	-2.07u	74	59%	-1.62u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	37	78%	+3.90u	16	75%	+1.05u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	29	59%	+2.66u	3	100%	+2.50u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	9	22%	-5.18u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	3	33%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
YRFI	👀 WATCH	2	100%	+0.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	82	43%	-13.89u	7	57%	-0.15u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	49	39%	-9.52u	7	50%	-0.23u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	472	51%	-53.42u	65	62%	+4.22u	70	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	3/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers	76.3	62.6	100.0	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 30.6%, xwOBA 0.215, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	67.9	55.3	82.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 49% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.250, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks	66.8	63.9	73.5	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	64.2	68.5	61.0	4	Sweeper (47% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 31.9%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	61.7	55.0	73.0	6	Changeup (46% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates	58.3	60.6	57.0	6	Changeup (45% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 29.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	57.4	60.2	57.0	5	Curveball (52% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians	56.7	53.4	56.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (40% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	55.6	39.2	75.0	5	Slider (42% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.265, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	55.2	61.1	54.5	6	Slider (47% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles	52.6	60.2	49.0	6	Split-Finger (39% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kodai Senga	New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds	51.3	61.7	38.0	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers	51.0	46.6	55.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	49.9	44.5	54.5	5	Slider (33% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals	47.9	56.2	42.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants	47.7	56.0	40.0	6	Slider (41% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 27.5%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals	47.5	51.4	45.0	7	Sweeper (32% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals	47.2	49.0	46.5	6	Changeup (32% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Edward Cabrera	Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies	46.6	55.7	36.5	5	Slider (46% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers	44.1	44.9	42.5	7	Curveball (34% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners	43.2	43.7	44.0	5	Slider (43% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins	42.0	43.9	39.0	5	Slider (34% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	40.5	40.6	40.5	5	Curveball (31% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays	39.3	31.1	47.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 51% usage)	Savant whiff 17.1%, put-away 13.3%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics	37.6	40.0	34.5	7	Sweeper (22% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets	36.1	43.4	23.0	5	Sweeper (41% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 15.8%, xwOBA 0.369, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs	35.9	49.4	23.5	6	Changeup (54% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.368, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Adrian Houser	San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	33.8	34.4	28.0	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.359, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels	24.8	40.3	6.0	6	Slider (36% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.4%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.403, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels	R	14.1%	5.8	5.8	5.8	97	normal	full	6.00	94.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	24.8%	3.1	18.0	7.2	52	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants	R	21.5%	4.9	5.1	5.0	82	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners	R	18.9%	5.7	5.6	5.6	96	normal	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	23.1%	6.0	5.9	6.0	101	deep	full	82.50	17.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Edward Cabrera	Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies	R	21.6%	4.1	5.2	5.0	69	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees	R	24.2%	5.5	6.0	6.0	92	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.3%
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets	R	18.8%	4.4	4.7	4.6	74	short	full	23.00	77.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Slade Cecconi	Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	20.0%	5.4	5.2	5.2	91	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 11.0%
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs	R	19.4%	4.7	4.5	4.8	79	short	full	23.50	76.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros	L	17.4%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers	R	29.9%	5.1	5.1	5.5	86	short	full	100.00	0.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals	R	18.4%	6.0	6.3	6.2	101	deep	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	32.1%	6.2	5.8	6.0	104	deep	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	17.2%	5.6	6.7	6.4	94	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%, low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Tyler Phillips	Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	19.7%	4.1	16.0	7.9	69	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians	L	22.2%	4.5	4.5	5.1	76	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers	R	20.9%	5.8	6.0	5.9	97	normal	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kodai Senga	New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds	R	23.1%	3.7	4.0	4.6	62	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.3%	5.3	5.5	5.6	89	normal	full	75.00	25.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	L	24.7%	5.7	5.6	5.6	96	normal	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Mitch Keller	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics	R	17.5%	4.7	5.5	5.3	79	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	20.7%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Adrian Houser	San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	R	18.5%	4.3	5.0	4.9	72	short	full	28.00	72.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles	R	25.5%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	R	19.7%	5.3	5.3	5.3	89	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	28.1%	6.0	5.6	6.0	101	deep	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins	R	19.1%	5.5	5.4	5.5	92	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Foster Griffin	Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals	L	23.1%	5.4	5.6	5.5	91	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	16.1	-1.4	7.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Davis Martin	Davis Martin Over	Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Foster Griffin	Foster Griffin Under	Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

71 candidates evaluated

← Back to Picks

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Checks ✓!✗–	Rec
► GOOD ADDS
B	✅ Good Add K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Tyler Phillips Over	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	3.5	7.7	-115	DK Over 3.5 -115 \| exact	121.1%	✓✓!✓––	GOOD ADD
B	🔬 Research Note Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks \| [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matc…	K Prop	Jack Perkins Over	PIR@ATH	9:41 PM	4.5	8.3	-108	DK Over 4.5 -108 \| exact	85.2%	✓✓!!––	GOOD ADD
B	✅ Good Add Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution	Run Line	San Francisco Giants +1.5	GIA@BRA	7:16 PM	1.5	-	-155	LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -143 \| best price	+6.9%	–!✓✓–✓	GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Robert Gasser Under	GUA@BRE	7:41 PM	4.5	3.8	+128	FanDuel Under 5.5 -162 \| alt rescue	16.2%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Davis Martin Over	SOX@YAN	7:06 PM	5.5	6.1	-105	DK Over 5.5 -105 \| exact	10.8%	✓✗!!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Brandon Young Under	ORI@MAR	9:41 PM	4.5	4.1	-121	FanDuel Under 4.5 -102 \| best price	8.6%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Slade Cecconi Over	GUA@BRE	7:41 PM	4.5	4.8	+113	DK Over 4.5 +113 \| exact	7.1%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Gerrit Cole Under	SOX@YAN	7:06 PM	5.5	5.1	+104	FanDuel Under 5.5 +108 \| best price	6.6%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Logan Gilbert Over	ORI@MAR	9:41 PM	6.5	6.8	-124	DK Over 6.5 -124 \| exact	4.8%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Foster Griffin Under	ROY@NAT	6:46 PM	5.5	5.3	-154	DK Under 5.5 -154 \| exact	4.0%	✓✗!✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Jesus Luzardo Over	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	6.5	6.7	-101	FanDuel Over 6.5 +104 \| best price	3.5%	✓✗✗!––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D	K Prop	Michael Wacha Over	ROY@NAT	6:46 PM	4.5	4.6	+124	FanDuel Over 4.5 +132 \| best price	1.8%	✓✗✗✓––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Michael Wacha Over	ROY@NAT	6:46 PM	17.5	19.1	-136	DK Over 17.5 -136 \| exact	9.1%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Brandon Young Under	ORI@MAR	9:41 PM	17.5	16.1	-114	DK Under 17.5 -114 \| exact	7.8%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Davis Martin Over	SOX@YAN	7:06 PM	17.5	18.4	-128	DK Over 17.5 -128 \| exact	5.3%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Jesus Luzardo Over	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	17.5	18.4	-156	DK Over 17.5 -156 \| exact	5.0%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Logan Gilbert Under	ORI@MAR	9:41 PM	17.5	17.2	+123	DK Under 17.5 +123 \| exact	1.9%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D	Pitcher Outs	Foster Griffin Under	ROY@NAT	6:46 PM	17.5	17.3	-109	DK Under 17.5 -109 \| exact	1.1%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Jake Mangum Under	PIR@ATH	9:41 PM	1.5	0.9	-266	DK Under 1.5 -266 \| exact	40.1%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Nick Gonzales Under	PIR@ATH	9:41 PM	1.5	1.1	-212	DK Under 1.5 -212 \| exact	28.1%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Bobby Witt Jr. Under	ROY@NAT	6:46 PM	1.5	1.1	-242	DK Under 1.5 -242 \| exact	23.7%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Hits	Otto Lopez Under	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.2	-271	DK Under 1.5 -271 \| exact	20.8%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Kyle Schwarber Over	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	2.1	+105	Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 \| best price	39.1%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Brice Turang Over	GUA@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.9	+117	DK Over 1.5 +117 \| exact	23.3%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Alec Bohm Under	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.2	-178	DK Under 1.5 -178 \| exact	18.5%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Bryson Stott Under	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.2	-193	Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -165 \| best price	17.2%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Brandon Marsh Over	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.8	+132	DK Over 1.5 +132 \| exact	16.7%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Xavier Edwards Under	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.3	-196	DK Under 1.5 -196 \| exact	13.4%	✓✗!–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	William Contreras Over	GUA@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.7	+131	DK Over 1.5 +131 \| exact	12.7%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Otto Lopez Over	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+125	Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 \| best price	8.8%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Bryce Harper Over	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+124	DK Over 1.5 +124 \| exact	6.6%	✓✗✗–––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Jackson Chourio Over	GUA@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+109	DK Over 1.5 +109 \| exact	3.4%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Christian Yelich Over	GUA@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.6	+125	DK Over 1.5 +125 \| exact	3.4%	✓✗✗––!	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D	Batter Total Bas	Angel Martinez Under	GUA@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	1.5	-164	DK Under 1.5 -164 \| exact	2.4%	✓✗!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Total	Over 7.5	JAY@SOX	6:45 PM	7.5	-	-115	FanDuel Over 7.5 -112 \| best price	+22.7%	–✓–––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	Total	Over 7.5	SOX@YAN	7:06 PM	7.5	-	-117	LowVig Over 7.5 -107 \| best price	+21.5%	–✓––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Away pen fatigued (1.05x)	Total	Over 7.5	TIG@AST	8:11 PM	7.5	-	-115	MyBookie Over 7.5 -112 \| best price	+20.0%	–✓!––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	Total	Under 10.5	PIR@ATH	9:41 PM	10.5	-	-103	theScore Bet Under 10.5 +100 \| best price	+17.2%	–✓–––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) \| Home pen fatigued (1.05x)	F5 Total	Under 5.5	PIR@ATH	9:41 PM	5.5	-	-106	Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -105 \| best price	+14.2%	–✓–––!	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	F5 Total	Under 5.5	ROC@CUB	8:06 PM	5.5	-	-122	FanDuel Under 5.5 -122 \| exact	+11.2%	–✓!–––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	F5 Total	Over 3.5	SOX@YAN	7:06 PM	3.5	-	-146	FanDuel Over 3.5 -146 \| exact	+10.6%	–✓––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	SOX@YAN	7:06 PM	-	5.6	-130	DraftKings -130	+8.1%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	ROY@NAT	6:46 PM	-	4.5	-102	DraftKings -102	+1.0%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	ROC@CUB	8:06 PM	-	4.3	-102	DraftKings -102	-0.7%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.4 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	-	4.4	-120	DraftKings -120	-3.6%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	PIR@ATH	9:41 PM	-	3.5	+116	DraftKings +116	-6.3%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	PAD@CAR	7:46 PM	-	4.0	-113	DraftKings -113	-7.1%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.9 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	RAY@DOD	10:11 PM	-	3.9	-111	DraftKings -111	-7.6%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	ORI@MAR	9:41 PM	-	4.0	-132	DraftKings -132	-10.3%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.3 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	ANG@DIA	9:41 PM	-	3.3	-113	DraftKings -113	-14.8%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.5 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	TIG@AST	8:11 PM	-	3.5	-130	DraftKings -130	-15.9%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	MET@RED	7:11 PM	-	2.8	-108	DraftKings -108	-19.4%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	GIA@BRA	7:16 PM	-	2.7	-104	DraftKings -104	-19.5%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	GUA@BRE	7:41 PM	-	2.7	-122	DraftKings -122	-24.4%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 2.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	TWI@RAN	8:06 PM	-	2.0	-122	DraftKings -122	-25.0%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C (Review)	↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D	NRFI	NRFI	JAY@SOX	6:45 PM	-	3.6	-110	DraftKings -110	-53.4%	–✗––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 34% (≥20%) — verify model inputs	YRFI	YRFI	TWI@RAN	8:06 PM	-	8.0	-104	DraftKings -104	+34.0%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 33% (≥20%) — verify model inputs	YRFI	YRFI	GUA@BRE	7:41 PM	-	7.3	-104	DraftKings -104	+33.4%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 29% (≥20%) — verify model inputs	YRFI	YRFI	GIA@BRA	7:16 PM	-	7.3	-122	DraftKings -122	+28.5%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 28% (≥20%) — verify model inputs	YRFI	YRFI	MET@RED	7:11 PM	-	7.2	-118	DraftKings -118	+28.3%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 25% (≥20%) — verify model inputs	YRFI	YRFI	TIG@AST	8:11 PM	-	6.5	+102	DraftKings +102	+24.9%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 24% (≥20%) — verify model inputs	YRFI	YRFI	ANG@DIA	9:41 PM	-	6.7	-113	DraftKings -113	+23.7%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	YRFI	YRFI	ORI@MAR	9:41 PM	-	6.0	+104	DraftKings +104	+19.4%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	YRFI	YRFI	RAY@DOD	10:11 PM	-	6.1	-115	DraftKings -115	+16.5%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	YRFI	YRFI	PAD@CAR	7:46 PM	-	6.0	-113	DraftKings -113	+15.9%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	YRFI	YRFI	PIR@ATH	9:41 PM	-	6.5	-148	DraftKings -148	+15.3%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	YRFI	YRFI	MAR@PHI	6:41 PM	-	5.6	-106	DraftKings -106	+12.6%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	YRFI	YRFI	ROC@CUB	8:06 PM	-	5.7	-125	DraftKings -125	+9.6%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	YRFI	YRFI	ROY@NAT	6:46 PM	-	5.5	-125	DraftKings -125	+7.9%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	YRFI	YRFI	SOX@YAN	7:06 PM	-	4.4	+102	DraftKings +102	+0.9%	––––––	ALT / DERISK
C	↘ Alt / Derisk	YRFI	YRFI	JAY@SOX	6:45 PM	-	5.7	-110	DraftKings -110	-25.8%	––––––	ALT / DERISK

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