| Market | Trust | Season N | Season WR | Season P&L | 14d N | 14d WR | 14d P&L | Grade A N | Grade A WR | Review-only N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | 269 | 56% | -6.30u | 48 | 54% | -1.72u | 130 | 59% | 64 |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | 217 | 58% | +6.99u | 67 | 49% | -9.11u | 2 | 50% | 6 |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | 134 | 54% | -4.11u | 24 | 62% | +2.07u | 41 | 63% | 1 |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | 560 | 72% | -13.99u | 533 | 72% | -17.26u | 4 | 75% | 134 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | 104 | 58% | -0.51u | 74 | 53% | -7.54u | 1 | 100% | 9 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | 88 | 59% | -2.24u | 71 | 59% | -1.79u | 0 | - | 11 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | 37 | 78% | +3.90u | 16 | 75% | +1.05u | 0 | - | 23 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | 29 | 59% | +2.66u | 3 | 100% | +2.50u | 0 | - | 37 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | 28 | 48% | +4.54u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | 9 | 22% | -5.18u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | 6 | 50% | +2.85u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | 3 | 33% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | 2 | 100% | +0.00u | 0 | - | +0.00u | 0 | - | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 82 | 43% | -13.89u | 7 | 57% | -0.15u | 2 | 50% | 8 |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 49 | 39% | -9.52u | 7 | 50% | -0.23u | 1 | 100% | 7 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 1 | 0% | -1.00u | 0 | - | 6 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 467 | 50% | -55.34u | 60 | 60% | +2.30u | 68 | 51% | 355 |
Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.
| Market | Current Stage | Next Stage | Progress | Promotion Blockers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Prop | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 2/4 | season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative |
| Pitcher Hits Allowed | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | 14d P&L non-negative |
| Run Line | ✅ TRUSTED | Maintain Trusted | 3/4 | season P&L non-negative |
| Batter Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Earned Runs | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Pitcher Walks | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Hits | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 3/5 | season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| Batter Total Bases | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| F5 ML | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| No HR U1.5 | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Moneyline | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 2/5 | season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0 |
| NRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| YRFI | 👀 WATCH | ✅ Trusted | 1/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Pitcher Outs | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 2/5 | season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52% |
| Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| F5 Total | 🔬 RESEARCH | 👀 Watch | 0/5 | season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10 |
| Batter H+R+RBI | ⛔ PAUSED | 🔬 Research | 3/5 | diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative |
Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.
| Pitcher | Game | Overall | Whiff | Contact | Arsenal | Top Pitch | Notes / Data Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets | 69.2 | 72.8 | 72.0 | 3 | Slider (53% whiff, 37% usage) | Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.271, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s) |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 61.1 | 60.7 | 64.5 | 4 | Changeup (36% whiff, 32% usage) | Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | 58.7 | 56.0 | 65.5 | 6 | Split-Finger (38% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | 58.5 | 64.0 | 56.5 | 5 | Split-Finger (42% whiff, 34% usage) | Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.9 | 59.8 | 54.0 | 5 | Changeup (35% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | 54.6 | 76.2 | 30.5 | 4 | Curveball (50% whiff, 12% usage) | Savant whiff 34.9%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Tobias Myers | New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | 51.8 | 42.1 | 62.0 | 4 | Split-Finger (31% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
| Kai-Wei Teng | Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | 51.0 | 53.7 | 50.5 | 6 | Sweeper (31% whiff, 35% usage) | Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | 50.6 | 45.3 | 57.0 | 6 | Sweeper (33% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 18.1%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins | 49.7 | 55.0 | 46.0 | 6 | Curveball (34% whiff, 22% usage) | Savant whiff 25.7%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals | 47.3 | 55.7 | 38.0 | 5 | Slider (39% whiff, 30% usage) | Savant whiff 28.3%, put-away 15.4%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | 40.8 | 35.8 | 45.0 | 6 | Cutter (23% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 17.7%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | 39.9 | 34.2 | 46.0 | 7 | Slider (29% whiff, 11% usage) | Savant whiff 16.9%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 38.9 | 36.9 | 43.0 | 6 | Changeup (35% whiff, 28% usage) | Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s) |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | 36.6 | 42.9 | 24.5 | 7 | Changeup (34% whiff, 20% usage) | Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s) |
| Ryne Nelson | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels | 35.6 | 39.9 | 29.0 | 5 | Slider (25% whiff, 19% usage) | Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.357, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays | 35.0 | 35.5 | 31.0 | 5 | Cutter (25% whiff, 18% usage) | Savant whiff 19.3%, put-away 13.2%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s) |
| Mitch Spence | Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | 33.0 | 26.7 | 21.5 | 4 | Curveball (57% whiff, 13% usage) | Savant whiff 15.1%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.372, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s) |
Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.
| Pitcher | Team | Hand | Season K% | Recent IP | Season IP | K IP | Pitch Ct | Leash | Savant | Contact | HR Vuln | Quality | Flags / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson | Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels | R | 15.2% | 6.2 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 104 | deep | full | 29.00 | 71.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| J.T. Ginn | Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates | R | 24.0% | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 92 | normal | full | 54.00 | 46.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Shota Imanaga | Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | L | 22.8% | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 87 | normal | full | 56.50 | 43.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets | R | 31.4% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 94 | normal | full | 72.00 | 28.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Michael Lorenzen | Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | R | 19.5% | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 69 | short | full | 24.50 | 75.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8% |
| Troy Melton | Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | R | 17.6% | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 106 | deep | full | 45.00 | 55.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Kai-Wei Teng | Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | R | 22.9% | 5.0 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 84 | short | full | 50.50 | 49.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9% |
| Mitch Spence | Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | R | 22.1% | - | - | 5.8 | 96 | unknown | full | 21.50 | 78.50 | season+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent_form_unavailable |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | R | 23.0% | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 94 | normal | full | 64.50 | 35.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Eric Lauer | Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays | L | 17.4% | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 82 | short | full | 31.00 | 69.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%, low-K contact opponent 19.0% |
| Ryan Gusto | Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | R | 22.5% | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 37 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 2.2 IP/start |
| Tobias Myers | New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | R | 19.8% | 1.3 | 16.6 | 6.6 | 22 | short | full | 62.00 | 38.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 1.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2% |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | R | 24.9% | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 107 | deep | full | 65.50 | 34.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Jared Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | R | 23.2% | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 74 | short | full | 30.50 | 69.50 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7% |
| Dustin May | St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres | R | 24.1% | 5.9 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 99 | normal | full | 57.00 | 43.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | - |
| Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | R | 12.8% | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 101 | deep | full | 43.00 | 57.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | patient opponent BB% 10.7% |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins | L | 23.5% | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 76 | short | full | 46.00 | 54.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 4.5 IP/start |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals | L | 22.7% | 3.3 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 55 | short | full | 38.00 | 62.00 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | recent leash 3.3 IP/start |
Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.
| Pitcher | Side | Game | Line | Proj | Gap | Edge / DIFF% | Grade | Rec | Status | Leash | K IP | Pitch Ct | Quality | Gate Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Zack Wheeler Over | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | 18.5 | 20.1 | 1.6 | 8.4% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 6.2 | 107 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 10% min using blended line 18.25 (4 books) |
| Ryne Nelson | Ryne Nelson Under | Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 16.2 | -1.4 | 7.7% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | deep | 5.6 | 104 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) |
| Chase Burns | Chase Burns Over | New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds | 17.5 | 18.8 | 1.3 | 7.6% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.8 | 94 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) |
| Shota Imanaga | Shota Imanaga Over | Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs | 17.5 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 0.3% | C | ALT_DERISK | research | normal | 5.7 | 87 | season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) |
QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.
| Player | Game | Research Side | Component Proj | H | R | RBI | Current | Uncertainty | Support | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.27 | 1.34 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 2.27 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=71,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Brandon Marsh | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.07 | 1.16 | 0.48 | 0.43 | 2.19 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=66,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Liam Hicks | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.06 | 0.91 | 0.50 | 0.65 | 2.02 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=69,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Kyle Schwarber | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 2.04 | 0.95 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 2.24 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=68,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Bryce Harper | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 1.95 | 0.89 | 0.57 | 0.49 | 2.20 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=71,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Xavier Edwards | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 1.91 | 1.08 | 0.53 | 0.30 | 1.82 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=72,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Justin Crawford | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 1.69 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 1.78 / Over | 0.69 | exact_hrr_l10 | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Trea Turner | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 1.69 | 0.90 | 0.52 | 0.27 | 1.78 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=70,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Bryson Stott | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 1.53 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.45 | 1.64 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=65,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Alec Bohm | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Over 1.5 | 1.53 | 0.81 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 1.64 / Over | 0.35 | season_games=67,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment | research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Under 1.5 | 1.41 | 0.83 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1.49 / Under | 0.69 | minimal | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| J.T. Realmuto | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Under 1.5 | 1.41 | 0.83 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1.49 / Under | 0.69 | minimal | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Under 1.5 | 1.41 | 0.83 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1.49 / Under | 0.69 | minimal | research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment |
Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.
| Grade | Signal | Type | Side | Game | Time (ET) | Line | Proj | Odds | Best Book / Line | Edge/Diff | Checks ✓!✗– | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ► GOOD ADDS | ||||||||||||
| B | 🔬 Research Note Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | K Prop | Jared Jones Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.5 | -154 | FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 | best price | 23.2% | ✓✓✓!–– | GOOD ADD |
| B | 🔬 Research Note Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration | K Prop | Ryan Gusto Under | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 3.5 | 2.8 | +113 | FanDuel Under 4.5 -162 | alt rescue | 18.8% | ✓✓!✓–– | GOOD ADD |
| ► ALT / DERISK | ||||||||||||
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Andrew Alvarez Over | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | 4.5 | 5.7 | +126 | DK Over 4.5 +126 | exact | 27.2% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| B (Weak) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books strongly against: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note… | K Prop | Chase Burns Over | MET@RED | 7:11 PM | 7.5 | 9.1 | +105 | Fanatics Over 7.5 +105 | best price | 21.1% | ✓✓✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree | K Prop | JT Ginn Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 7.0 | +101 | DK Over 4.5 +101 | exact | 56.2% | ✓✓✗!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Walbert Urena Over | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 5.2 | +119 | DK Over 4.5 +119 | exact | 15.9% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Troy Melton Under | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | 4.5 | 3.8 | -145 | DK Under 4.5 -145 | exact | 14.8% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Eric Lauer Under | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.0 | +103 | DK Under 3.5 +103 | exact | 13.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Mitch Spence Over | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | 3.5 | 3.9 | +135 | DK Over 3.5 +135 | exact | 10.6% | ✓✗✗✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D | K Prop | Michael Lorenzen Under | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | 4.5 | 4.3 | -139 | DK Under 4.5 -139 | exact | 5.4% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 17% min using blended line 3.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Nick Martinez Under | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 3.5 | 3.4 | -119 | DK Under 3.5 -119 | exact | 4.2% | ✓✗!!–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Shota Imanaga Under | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | 6.5 | 6.3 | -142 | Fanatics Under 6.5 -130 | best price | 2.8% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using blended line 6.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Zack Wheeler Under | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 6.5 | 6.3 | -111 | FanDuel Under 6.5 -110 | best price | 2.5% | ✓✗!✓–– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 10% min using blended line 18.25 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Zack Wheeler Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 18.5 | 20.1 | +136 | DK Over 18.5 +136 | exact | 8.4% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Ryne Nelson Under | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 17.5 | 16.2 | -124 | Caesars Under 17.5 -124 | best price | 7.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Chase Burns Over | MET@RED | 7:11 PM | 17.5 | 18.8 | -105 | DK Over 17.5 -105 | exact | 7.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using blended line 17.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Pitcher Outs | Shota Imanaga Over | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | 17.5 | 17.6 | -168 | DK Over 17.5 -168 | exact | 0.3% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Mike Trout Under | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -241 | DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact | 41.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Bo Bichette Under | MET@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -260 | DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact | 40.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Jake Mangum Under | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -236 | DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact | 40.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Jacob Wilson Under | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -265 | DK Under 1.5 -265 | exact | 40.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Spencer Horwitz Under | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -266 | DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact | 38.7% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Bryan Reynolds Under | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 0.9 | -265 | DK Under 1.5 -265 | exact | 36.3% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Luis Garcia Jr. Under | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.0 | -259 | DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact | 36.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Alex Bregman Under | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -266 | DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact | 27.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Freddie Freeman Under | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -265 | DK Under 1.5 -265 | exact | 26.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Shohei Ohtani Under | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -256 | DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact | 26.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Nick Gonzales Under | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -246 | DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact | 26.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Pete Crow-Armstrong Under | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -212 | DK Under 1.5 -212 | exact | 25.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Junior Caminero Under | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.1 | -251 | DK Under 1.5 -251 | exact | 23.9% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Daylen Lile Under | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -276 | DK Under 1.5 -276 | exact | 21.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Yordan Alvarez Under | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -262 | DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact | 16.2% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Shea Langeliers Under | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -261 | DK Under 1.5 -261 | exact | 12.0% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Hits | Yandy Diaz Under | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -225 | DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact | 11.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Otto Lopez Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.3 | -102 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +100 | best price | 51.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Kyle Schwarber Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -134 | DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact | 49.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Bryce Harper Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -120 | DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Brandon Marsh Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -121 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price | 45.8% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Liam Hicks Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +102 | DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact | 35.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Xavier Edwards Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +118 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price | 21.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Trea Turner Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -137 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price | 18.9% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Justin Crawford Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +127 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 18.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Bryson Stott Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -108 | DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact | 9.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Alec Bohm Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | -116 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -115 | best price | 9.0% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Gabriel Rincones Jr. Under | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -178 | Fanatics Under 1.5 -155 | best price | 0.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | J.T. Realmuto Under | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -141 | Caesars Under 1.5 -141 | best price | 0.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter H+R+RBI | Kyle Stowers Under | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -176 | Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price | 0.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) | Batter Total Bas | Shea Langeliers Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.6 | -112 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -110 | best price | 71.2% | ✓✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Yordan Alvarez Over | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.5 | -104 | DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact | 68.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | James Wood Over | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.4 | +105 | DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact | 57.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kyle Schwarber Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | +108 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price | 49.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nick Kurtz Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 2.2 | -105 | DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact | 46.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Yandy Diaz Over | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -107 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price | 42.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | CJ Abrams Over | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +121 | DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact | 42.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Dillon Dingler Over | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +131 | DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact | 41.7% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Andy Pages Over | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | +105 | DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact | 38.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Junior Caminero Over | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.1 | -118 | DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact | 38.4% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Shohei Ohtani Over | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | -118 | DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact | 35.6% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Max Muncy Over | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +117 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price | 34.4% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Juan Soto Over | MET@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +129 | DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact | 32.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Daylen Lile Over | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +110 | DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact | 31.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Christian Walker Over | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 2.0 | +118 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +120 | best price | 30.7% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Corbin Carroll Over | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +112 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price | 29.0% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Freddie Freeman Over | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +108 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +110 | best price | 26.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jonathan Aranda Over | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +141 | DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact | 25.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Tyler Soderstrom Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.9 | +113 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price | 25.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Bryce Harper Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +129 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 20.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Zach Neto Over | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -102 | Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price | 19.8% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Mike Trout Over | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | -126 | Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price | 19.4% | ✓✗✓––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Otto Lopez Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +155 | DK Over 1.5 +155 | exact | 19.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nolan Arenado Under | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.2 | -188 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -185 | best price | 18.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Brandon Marsh Over | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +128 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 17.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Luis Garcia Jr. Over | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.8 | +110 | DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact | 17.5% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jo Adell Over | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.7 | +113 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +115 | best price | 12.3% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Alec Bohm Under | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.3 | -194 | Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price | 12.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Bo Bichette Under | MET@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -165 | Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price | 10.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Trea Turner Under | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -157 | Caesars Under 1.5 -152 | best price | 9.8% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Mookie Betts Over | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +120 | DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact | 9.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Bryson Stott Under | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -185 | Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price | 9.5% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Ketel Marte Over | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +121 | DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact | 9.2% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Kevin McGonigle Under | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -198 | Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price | 8.5% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Carlos Cortes Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +132 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price | 7.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Zack Gelof Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +131 | DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact | 7.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jacob Wilson Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +127 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 7.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Henry Bolte Over | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +142 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price | 7.9% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Spencer Steer Under | MET@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.4 | -189 | Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price | 6.6% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Sal Stewart Over | MET@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +131 | DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact | 5.1% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Curtis Mead Over | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +117 | Caesars Over 1.5 +124 | best price | 4.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Dylan Crews Over | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +130 | DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact | 4.6% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (4 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jeremy Pena Over | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +122 | DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact | 4.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Jose Altuve Over | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.6 | +132 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price | 4.2% | ✓✗✗––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Liam Hicks Under | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -199 | Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -190 | best price | 2.1% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Wade Meckler Over | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +127 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Gabriel Moreno Over | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +138 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Nick Madrigal Over | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | +143 | Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +145 | best price | 1.7% | ✓✗✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using blended line 1.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | Isaac Paredes Under | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -178 | DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact | 1.0% | ✓✗!––! | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D | Batter Total Bas | JJ Bleday Under | MET@RED | 7:11 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -169 | Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price | 0.4% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: Projection is above blended line 1.5 (3 books): market gap +0.00; blended market flips the selected Under edge —… | Batter Total Bas | Nolan Schanuel Under | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 1.5 | 1.5 | -202 | Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price | 0.2% | ✓✗!––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Total | Over 7.5 | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | 7.5 | - | -110 | BetMGM Over 7.5 -105 | best price | +19.4% | –✓–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | Total | Under 10.5 | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 10.5 | - | -102 | Bovada Direct Under 11 -120 | alt rescue | +19.1% | –✓–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | F5 Total | Under 5.5 | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | 5.5 | - | +108 | BetOnline Under 6 -115 | alt rescue | +18.7% | –✓✗––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | F5 Total | Under 5.5 | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | 5.5 | - | -144 | FanDuel Under 5.5 -144 | exact | +8.3% | –✓–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 5.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | MET@RED | 7:11 PM | - | 5.1 | -125 | DraftKings -125 | +3.0% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.8 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | - | 3.8 | +122 | DraftKings +122 | -1.5% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | - | 3.7 | -104 | DraftKings -104 | -8.4% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | - | 3.6 | -106 | DraftKings -106 | -10.5% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 4.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | - | 4.0 | -128 | DraftKings -128 | -10.6% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.1 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | - | 3.1 | -108 | DraftKings -108 | -16.0% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 3.0 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | - | 3.0 | -108 | DraftKings -108 | -18.0% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C (Review) | ↘ Alt / Derisk Model edge fail: NRFI score 1.6 below 7.7 threshold — posture note at D | NRFI | NRFI | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | - | 1.6 | +100 | DraftKings +100 | -20.0% | –✗–––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 29% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | - | 8.4 | -128 | DraftKings -128 | +28.9% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 27% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | TIG@AST | 8:11 PM | - | 7.0 | -118 | DraftKings -118 | +26.9% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk High NRFI/YRFI edge 25% (≥20%) — verify model inputs | YRFI | YRFI | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | - | 6.9 | -118 | DraftKings -118 | +25.0% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | ROY@NAT | 6:46 PM | - | 6.4 | -120 | DraftKings -120 | +19.5% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | MAR@PHI | 6:41 PM | - | 6.0 | +100 | DraftKings +100 | +19.5% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | ROC@CUB | 8:06 PM | - | 6.3 | -122 | DraftKings -122 | +17.5% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | PIR@ATH | 9:41 PM | - | 6.2 | -156 | DraftKings -156 | +10.5% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk | YRFI | YRFI | MET@RED | 7:11 PM | - | 4.9 | -102 | DraftKings -102 | +6.0% | –––––– | ALT / DERISK |
| C | ↘ Alt / Derisk Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 55% (11 books) | Run Line | Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 | RAY@DOD | 10:11 PM | 1.5 | - | -148 | LowVig Tampa Bay Rays 1.5 -136 | best price | +8.4% | –!✗!–✓ | ALT / DERISK |
| ► MONITOR | ||||||||||||
| B (Review) | ◇ Monitor Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using blended line 4.5 (3 books) — posture note at D | K Prop | Ryne Nelson Over | ANG@DIA | 9:41 PM | 4.5 | 4.5 | -146 | Fanatics Over 4.5 -140 | best price | 0.4% | ✓✗✓✓–– | MONITOR |
✓ PASS ! WARN ✗ FAIL – N/A | Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script