MLB Betting Analyzer — Full Audit

Thursday, May 28 2026

MARKET TRUST TIERS

16 market(s) with settled tracker history
MarketTrustSeason NSeason WRSeason P&L14d N14d WR14d P&LGrade A NGrade A WR
K Prop✅ TRUSTED20455%-8.12u3152%-3.50u10858%
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTED13560%+10.27u4351%-2.41u1100%
Run Line✅ TRUSTED10152%-4.26u3339%-11.23u3664%
F5 ML👀 WATCH2848%+4.54u0-+0.00u0-
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH2348%-2.10u933%-3.11u0-
Batter Hits👀 WATCH1681%+2.20u367%-0.26u0-
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH1567%+2.76u1567%+2.76u0-
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH1464%+1.00u1464%+1.00u0-
Batter Walks👀 WATCH1070%+2.43u1070%+2.43u0-
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH922%-5.18u0-+0.00u0-
Moneyline👀 WATCH650%+2.85u0-+0.00u0-
NRFI👀 WATCH333%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-
YRFI👀 WATCH2100%+0.00u0-+0.00u0-
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH7541%-13.74u0-+0.00u10%
Total🔬 RESEARCH4238%-9.29u0-+0.00u1100%
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED40749%-57.64u0-+0.00u5545%

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from configured market status plus settled tracker performance.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages
MarketCurrent StageNext StageProgressPromotion Blockers
K Prop✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted3/414d P&L non-negative
Run Line✅ TRUSTEDMaintain Trusted2/4season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
F5 ML👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Total Bases👀 WATCH✅ Trusted0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Hits👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Earned Runs👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Pitcher Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
Batter Walks👀 WATCH✅ Trusted3/5season sample >= 50; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
No HR U1.5👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline👀 WATCH✅ Trusted2/5season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55%
NRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI👀 WATCH✅ Trusted1/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch1/5season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total🔬 RESEARCH👀 Watch0/5season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI⛔ PAUSED🔬 Research2/5diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

12 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics
PitcherGameOverallWhiffContactArsenalTop PitchNotes / Data Gaps
Payton TolleBoston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves70.558.089.05Curveball (47% whiff, 11% usage)Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.237, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Paul SkenesPittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs66.253.483.56Changeup (34% whiff, 17% usage)Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 21.8%, xwOBA 0.248, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Chris SaleAtlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox63.163.768.04Slider (39% whiff, 41% usage)Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Davis MartinChicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins57.763.357.56Slider (54% whiff, 16% usage)Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nathan EovaldiTexas Rangers vs Houston Astros57.671.347.56Curveball (38% whiff, 20% usage)Savant whiff 32.0%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Spencer ArrighettiHouston Astros vs Texas Rangers46.762.036.06Curveball (48% whiff, 32% usage)Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.343, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack FlahertyDetroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels42.349.532.05Curveball (38% whiff, 20% usage)Savant whiff 24.2%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Chris BassittBaltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays40.543.635.07Curveball (32% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Colin ReaChicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates36.141.630.07Slider (38% whiff, 12% usage)Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Patrick CorbinToronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles35.940.127.05Slider (40% whiff, 25% usage)Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Simeon Woods RichardsonMinnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox28.329.119.04Split-Finger (20% whiff, 27% usage)Savant whiff 17.3%, put-away 10.7%, xwOBA 0.377, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Grayson RodriguezLos Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers22.944.30.04Slider (35% whiff, 22% usage)Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.429, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

12 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine
PitcherTeamHandSeason K%Recent IPSeason IPK IPPitch CtLeashSavantContactHR VulnQualityFlags / Notes
Chris SaleAtlanta Braves vs Boston Red SoxL29.5%6.06.26.2101deepfull68.0032.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Chris BassittBaltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysR19.3%5.15.95.786shortfull35.0065.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Payton TolleBoston Red Sox vs Atlanta BravesL25.3%6.06.06.0101deepfull89.0011.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Colin ReaChicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesR19.0%5.16.86.386shortfull30.0070.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Davis MartinChicago White Sox vs Minnesota TwinsR28.2%6.06.16.1101deepfull57.5042.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Jack FlahertyDetroit Tigers vs Los Angeles AngelsR25.7%4.54.34.376shortfull32.0068.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start
Spencer ArrighettiHouston Astros vs Texas RangersR22.4%5.95.96.099normalfull36.0064.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 9.6%
Grayson RodriguezLos Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersR-4.5-5.576shortfull0.00100.00fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%, season_pitcher_stats_missing
Simeon Woods RichardsonMinnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxR-2.5-5.142shortfull19.0081.00fallback+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 2.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.0%, season_pitcher_stats_missing
Paul SkenesPittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsR27.4%6.25.56.0104deepfull83.5016.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handpatient opponent BB% 11.6%
Nathan EovaldiTexas Rangers vs Houston AstrosR23.6%7.06.16.3117deepfull47.5052.50season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand-
Patrick CorbinToronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesL17.6%4.94.95.082shortfull27.0073.00season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handrecent leash 4.9 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.1%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

2/2 candidate(s) held from actionable output
PitcherSideGameLineProjGapEdge / DIFF%GradeRecStatusLeashK IPPitch CtQualityGate Reason
Nathan EovaldiNathan Eovaldi OverHouston Astros @ Texas Rangers18.520.72.212.1%DMONITORresearchdeep6.3117season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.1% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.24 <= 3 min
Paul SkenesPaul Skenes UnderChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates18.518.4-0.10.7%DMONITORresearchdeep6.0104season+recent+savant+savant_quality+handWeak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

41 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine
PlayerGameResearch SideComponent ProjHRRBICurrentUncertaintySupportFlags
Yordan AlvarezHouston Astros @ Texas RangersOver 1.52.521.220.680.613.01 / Over0.30season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.52.371.170.750.452.22 / Over0.30season_games=54,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Oneil CruzChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.52.311.100.620.592.64 / Over0.35season_games=54,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Gunnar HendersonToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.52.301.050.680.572.04 / Over0.30season_games=55,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Brandon LoweChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.52.301.060.580.652.66 / Over0.35season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete AlonsoToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.52.270.930.600.742.32 / Over0.30season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Taylor WardToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.52.121.030.760.322.05 / Over0.30season_games=55,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Josh JungHouston Astros @ Texas RangersOver 1.52.051.200.420.422.42 / Over0.30season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Nico HoernerChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.52.051.060.480.511.74 / Over0.30season_games=55,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Bryan ReynoldsChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.52.040.970.520.552.41 / Over0.35season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Adley RutschmanToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.52.011.080.430.501.77 / Over0.59lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Kazuma OkamotoToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.51.980.820.510.651.82 / Over0.30season_games=54,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Nick GonzalesChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.51.931.130.410.402.32 / Over0.35season_games=50,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ian HappChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.51.930.780.650.501.68 / Over0.30season_games=52,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Brandon NimmoHouston Astros @ Texas RangersOver 1.51.901.120.410.372.12 / Over0.30season_games=53,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Konnor GriffinChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.51.890.980.520.392.17 / Over0.35season_games=49,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
George SpringerToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.51.891.030.460.401.64 / Over0.59lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Daulton VarshoToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.51.880.990.510.371.86 / Over0.30season_games=53,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Coby MayoToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.51.881.010.400.471.73 / Over0.59lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Nathan LukesToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.51.851.010.450.391.64 / Over0.59lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Michael BuschChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.51.840.850.410.581.60 / Over0.30season_games=55,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Pete Crow-ArmstrongChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.51.820.850.580.381.51 / Over0.30season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Jesus SanchezToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.51.801.040.390.371.88 / Over0.64exact_hrr_l10,lineupresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jake BurgerHouston Astros @ Texas RangersOver 1.51.780.890.380.512.36 / Over0.35season_games=53,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model
Ernie ClementToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.51.771.110.370.291.94 / Over0.30season_games=55,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Alex BregmanChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.51.761.050.420.291.58 / Over0.30season_games=55,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Jeremy PenaHouston Astros @ Texas RangersOver 1.51.751.030.400.331.66 / Over0.64lineupresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Joc PedersonHouston Astros @ Texas RangersOver 1.51.741.030.390.321.64 / Over0.59lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Spencer HorwitzChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.51.710.900.360.441.97 / Over0.35season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alejandro OsunaHouston Astros @ Texas RangersOver 1.51.711.010.380.311.64 / Over0.59lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Isaac ParedesHouston Astros @ Texas RangersOver 1.51.680.920.350.411.68 / Over0.30season_games=51,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Leody TaverasToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesOver 1.51.670.970.350.351.70 / Over0.59lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Seiya SuzukiChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesOver 1.51.570.810.450.311.53 / Over0.30season_games=42,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused
Esmerlyn ValdezChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 1.51.480.870.300.301.56 / Over0.74minimalresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment, component_side_conflicts_current_model
Jackson HollidayToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesUnder 1.51.440.880.280.281.62 / Over0.64lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, component_side_conflicts_current_model
Braden ShewmakeHouston Astros @ Texas RangersUnder 1.51.440.890.280.271.60 / Over0.64lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, component_side_conflicts_current_model
Blaze AlexanderToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesUnder 1.51.410.850.280.281.62 / Over0.64lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, component_side_conflicts_current_model
Marcell OzunaChicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh PiratesUnder 1.51.390.710.270.411.59 / Over0.40season_games=46,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_side_conflicts_current_model
Brandon ValenzuelaToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesUnder 1.51.290.790.260.251.50 / Over0.64lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, component_side_conflicts_current_model
Andres GimenezToronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore OriolesUnder 1.51.260.760.260.241.45 / Under0.64exact_hrr_l10,lineupresearch_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Cam SmithHouston Astros @ Texas RangersUnder 1.51.140.640.290.211.29 / Under0.30season_games=56,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessmentresearch_only_hrr_paused

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

FULL AUDIT — ALL CANDIDATES

193 candidates evaluated
← Back to Picks
GradeSignalTypeSideGameTime (ET)LineProjOddsBest Book / LineEdge/DiffChecks ✓!✗–Rec
► GOOD ADDS
B👀 Watch
Heavy juice (-163) — break-even ~62%, requires clean execution
Pitcher Earned RNathan Eovaldi OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.51.9-163BetMGM Over 1.5 -160 | best price26.7%!GOOD ADD
B👀 Watch
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Batter WalksTaylor Ward OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.8-126DK Over 0.5 -126 | exact67.9%!!GOOD ADD
► ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
K final QC: full-lineup opp K% 18.2%, juiced K over -154, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade leash
K PropChris Bassitt OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM3.54.5-154DK Over 3.5 -154 | exact29.9%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree
K PropNathan Eovaldi OverAST@RAN8:06 PM6.57.8+107theScore Bet Over 4.5 +125 | alt rescue19.8%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)
Pitcher WalksPatrick Corbin OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.8-196DK Over 1.5 -196 | exact19.7%!!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
Pitcher WalksSpencer Arrighetti OverAST@RAN8:06 PM2.52.9+100DK Over 2.5 +100 | exact14.4%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Pitcher Earned RSpencer Arrighetti UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM2.52.1-153DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact16.0%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
Batter WalksAndres Gimenez UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.1-466DK Under 0.5 -466 | exact77.3%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
Batter WalksErnie Clement UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.1-383DK Under 0.5 -383 | exact70.8%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksJesus Sanchez UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.1-298DK Under 0.5 -298 | exact70.1%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
Batter WalksEzequiel Duran UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.2-376DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact53.4%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksPete Crow-Armstrong UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.2-317DK Under 0.5 -317 | exact52.2%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksGunnar Henderson UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.2-281DK Under 0.5 -281 | exact50.2%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksTaylor Trammell UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.2-286DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact50.1%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksJeremy Pena UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.2-516DK Under 0.5 -516 | exact50.1%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
Batter WalksBrice Matthews UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.2-325DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact50.1%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
Batter WalksZach Dezenzo UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.2-352DK Under 0.5 -352 | exact50.1%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
Batter WalksBraden Shewmake UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.2-472DK Under 0.5 -472 | exact50.1%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
Batter WalksChristian Vazquez UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.2-480DK Under 0.5 -480 | exact50.1%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksKonnor Griffin UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.3-495DK Under 0.5 -495 | exact48.5%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksIsaac Paredes UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.3-243DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact46.6%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
Batter WalksNick Gonzales UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.3-435DK Under 0.5 -435 | exact46.1%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksBrandon Valenzuela UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.3-291DK Under 0.5 -291 | exact41.7%!!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksNathan Lukes UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.3-441DK Under 0.5 -441 | exact41.7%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksGeorge Springer UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.3-183DK Under 0.5 -183 | exact41.7%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksMoisés Ballesteros UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.3-397DK Under 0.5 -397 | exact37.6%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksMiguel Amaya UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.3-423DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact37.6%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: No usable Over/Under book pairs for consensus check
Batter WalksJake Burger UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.3-368DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact36.2%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksCam Smith UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.3-304theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price35.3%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksOneil Cruz UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.3-179DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact34.0%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksNico Hoerner UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.3-415DK Under 0.5 -415 | exact33.3%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksSeiya Suzuki UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.3-235DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact32.8%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksBlaze Alexander UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.3-372DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact32.4%!!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksLeody Taveras UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.3-310theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price32.4%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksCoby Mayo UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.3-278theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260 | best price32.4%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksJackson Holliday UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.3-256DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact32.4%!!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksTyler O'Neill UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.3-339DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact32.4%!!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksAdley Rutschman UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.3-219theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | best price32.4%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksAlex Bregman UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.3-270DK Under 0.5 -270 | exact31.8%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK agrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree
Batter WalksDaulton Varsho UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.4-206DK Under 0.5 -206 | exact28.0%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A capped at B
Batter H+R+RBIYordan Alvarez OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.53.0-137Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -125 | best price100.9%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over
Batter H+R+RBIBrandon Lowe OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.52.7-139BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price77.6%!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over
Batter H+R+RBIOneil Cruz OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.52.6-106Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -105 | best price76.3%!!!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)
Batter Total BasYordan Alvarez OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.52.8-106Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price87.5%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Totals model under recalibration — capped at B
TotalOver 7.0AST@RAN8:06 PM7.0--123MyBookie Over 7 -120 | best price+26.9%!ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Totals model under recalibration — capped at B
F5 TotalOver 3.5AST@RAN8:06 PM3.5--128BetUS Over 3.5 -120 | best price+18.0%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
Books Disagree: DK disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree
F5 MLChicago CubsCUB@PIR6:41 PM--+175draftkings +175+9.4%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
High NRFI/YRFI edge 34% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
YRFIYRFIJAY@ORI6:36 PM-8.1-104DraftKings -104+34.0%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / Derisk
High NRFI/YRFI edge 27% (≥20%) — verify model inputs
YRFIYRFIAST@RAN8:06 PM-6.3+120DraftKings +120+27.2%ALT / DERISK
C↘ Alt / DeriskYRFIYRFICUB@PIR6:41 PM-5.0+112DraftKings +112+10.1%ALT / DERISK
► MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.1% vs 17% min clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min
K PropPatrick Corbin OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM3.54.1-166BetRivers Over 3.5 -165 | best price17.1%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min
K PropColin Rea OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM4.55.2+105FanDuel Over 4.5 +110 | best price16.2%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 17% min
K PropSpencer Arrighetti OverAST@RAN8:06 PM5.56.1+115BetMGM Over 4.5 -160 | alt rescue10.2%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min
K PropPaul Skenes OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM6.56.7-105FanDuel Over 6.5 +100 | best price3.6%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.1% vs 10% min clears, but raw gap +2.24 <= 3 min
Pitcher OutsNathan Eovaldi OverAST@RAN8:06 PM18.520.7-105DK Over 18.5 -105 | exact12.1%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min
Pitcher OutsPaul Skenes UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM18.518.4-182Bovada Direct Under 18.5 -180 | best price0.7%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min
Pitcher Hits AllPatrick Corbin OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM5.55.7+121BetMGM Over 4.5 -150 | alt rescue3.6%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min
Pitcher Hits AllChris Bassitt OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM5.55.6+104BetMGM Over 5.5 +110 | best price1.8%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min
Pitcher Hits AllColin Rea UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM5.55.5-101DK Under 5.5 -101 | exact-!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 20% min
Pitcher WalksColin Rea OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.7-151DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact11.5%!!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 20% min
Pitcher WalksPaul Skenes UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.3-132DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact11.1%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 20% min
Pitcher WalksNathan Eovaldi UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM1.51.4-113DK Under 1.5 -113 | exact9.0%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 20% min
Pitcher WalksChris Bassitt OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.6-129theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price7.2%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min
Pitcher Earned RChris Bassitt OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM2.52.7+108BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price8.0%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min
Pitcher Earned RPaul Skenes OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.6+122DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact6.7%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min
Pitcher Earned RColin Rea OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM2.52.6-110DK Over 2.5 -110 | exact4.0%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min
Pitcher Earned RPatrick Corbin UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM2.52.5-115DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact-!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min
Batter HitsVladimir Guerrero Jr. UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.1-249theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220 | best price27.0%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min
Batter WalksEvan Carter OverAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.6+111DK Over 0.5 +111 | exact25.2%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 30% min
Batter WalksIan Happ OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.6+155DK Over 0.5 +155 | exact22.7%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 30% min
Batter WalksJosh Jung UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.4-336DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact22.0%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min
Batter WalksSpencer Horwitz UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.4-193DK Under 0.5 -193 | exact21.8%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min
Batter WalksHenry Davis UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.4-439DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact19.9%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min
Batter WalksEsmerlyn Valdez UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.4-252DK Under 0.5 -252 | exact19.9%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 30% min
Batter WalksMichael Busch OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.6+137theScore Bet Over 0.5 +145 | best price19.2%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 30% min
Batter WalksMarcell Ozuna UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.4-216DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact18.8%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 30% min
Batter WalksKazuma Okamoto UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.4-241DK Under 0.5 -241 | exact18.2%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 30% min
Batter WalksDansby Swanson UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.4-313DK Under 0.5 -313 | exact15.4%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min
Batter WalksYordan Alvarez OverAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.6+104theScore Bet Over 0.5 +105 | best price10.9%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min
Batter WalksBrandon Lowe UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.5-179DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact9.8%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min
Batter WalksBrandon Nimmo OverAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.5+104DK Over 0.5 +104 | exact7.9%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min
Batter WalksVladimir Guerrero Jr. OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.5+132theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price7.8%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 30% min
Batter WalksAlejandro Osuna UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.5-233DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact6.4%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 30% min
Batter WalksJoc Pederson UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.5-163DK Under 0.5 -163 | exact6.4%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 30% min
Batter WalksKyle Higashioka UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.5-322DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact6.4%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min
Batter WalksPete Alonso UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.5-199theScore Bet Under 0.5 -185 | best price4.7%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 30% min
Batter WalksBryan Reynolds UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.5-204theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price1.4%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.4% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min
Batter H+R+RBIJosh Jung OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.52.4-102DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact61.4%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.5% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min
Batter H+R+RBIBryan Reynolds OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.52.4-119DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact60.5%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min
Batter H+R+RBIJake Burger OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.52.4+118DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact57.3%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.9% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min
Batter H+R+RBIPete Alonso OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.52.3-133theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price54.9%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.4% vs 50% min clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min
Batter H+R+RBINick Gonzales OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.52.3-124DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact54.4%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIVladimir Guerrero Jr. OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.52.2-140Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -135 | best price48.3%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIKonnor Griffin OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.52.2+103Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price44.5%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIBrandon Nimmo OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.52.1+102Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +105 | best price41.4%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBITaylor Ward OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.52.0-133theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price36.5%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIGunnar Henderson OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.52.0-120theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price36.3%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBISpencer Horwitz OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.52.0-125DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact31.4%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over
Batter H+R+RBIErnie Clement OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.9-106theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price29.1%!!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIJesus Sanchez OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.9-102theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price25.2%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIDaulton Varsho OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.9-118BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price24.3%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIKazuma Okamoto OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.8-103BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price21.5%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIAdley Rutschman OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.8-123Bovada Direct Over 1.5 -120 | best price17.9%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBINico Hoerner OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.7-109DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact16.3%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBICoby Mayo OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.7+103BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price15.6%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBICam Smith UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM1.51.3-178theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price14.1%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBILeody Taveras OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.7+104BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price13.4%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIIsaac Paredes OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.51.7+116DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact12.1%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIIan Happ OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.7+123BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue11.9%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIJeremy Pena OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.51.7-108BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price10.8%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBINathan Lukes OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.6-108DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact9.6%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIGeorge Springer OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.6-125BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price9.6%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIJoc Pederson OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.51.6+129Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price9.5%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIAlejandro Osuna OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.51.6+132Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price9.5%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over
Batter H+R+RBIJackson Holliday OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.6+112BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price7.7%!!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over
Batter H+R+RBIBlaze Alexander OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.6+130theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price7.7%!!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIBraden Shewmake OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.51.6+138theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue6.6%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIMichael Busch OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.6+116BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price6.3%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIMarcell Ozuna OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.6+115DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact6.3%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIAlex Bregman OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.6+109BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price5.1%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIEsmerlyn Valdez OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.6+131DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact4.0%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIAndres Gimenez UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.4-143theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price3.6%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBISeiya Suzuki OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.5+131BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price2.1%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min
Batter H+R+RBIPete Crow-Armstrong OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.5+110theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price0.9%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over
Batter H+R+RBIBrandon Valenzuela OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.5+132Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +135 | best price0.1%!!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.0% vs 70% min
Batter Total BasBrandon Lowe OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.52.4+104BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price59.0%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)
Batter Total BasGunnar Henderson OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.8+137Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price20.9%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)
Batter Total BasPete Alonso OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.8+112BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price20.8%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 70% min
Batter Total BasNico Hoerner UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.2-186Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -185 | best price19.1%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)
Batter Total BasErnie Clement OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.8+147BetMGM Over 1.5 +155 | best price18.8%!!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)
Batter Total BasAdley Rutschman OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.7+130BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price14.8%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min
Batter Total BasVladimir Guerrero Jr. UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.4-149DK Under 1.5 -149 | exact8.4%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)
Batter Total BasJeremy Pena OverAST@RAN8:06 PM1.51.6+143DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact7.9%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min
Batter Total BasTaylor Ward UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.4-166Bovada Direct Under 1.5 -165 | best price7.4%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min
Batter Total BasBryan Reynolds OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.6+129BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price7.0%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)
Batter Total BasGeorge Springer OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.6+124Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +125 | best price6.7%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)
Batter Total BasNathan Lukes OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.6+139Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price6.7%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min
Batter Total BasSpencer Horwitz OverCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.6+139Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +140 | best price4.4%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)
Batter Total BasDaulton Varsho OverJAY@ORI6:36 PM1.51.6+128Bovada Direct Over 1.5 +130 | best price4.1%!!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min
Batter Total BasNick Gonzales UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM1.51.5-176BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price1.5%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 5.0 below 7.7 threshold
NRFINRFICUB@PIR6:41 PM-5.0-142DraftKings -142-0.9%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 3.7 below 7.7 threshold
NRFINRFIAST@RAN8:06 PM-3.7-154DraftKings -154-18.3%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: NRFI score 1.9 below 7.7 threshold
NRFINRFIJAY@ORI6:36 PM-1.9-122DraftKings -122-25.0%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRMoisés Ballesteros UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.0-1600theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price94.4%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRMiguel Amaya UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.0-2800theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price94.4%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRHenry Davis UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.0-1600theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price93.4%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRGeorge Springer UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.0-1000BetOnline Under 0.5 -900 | best price93.3%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRBrandon Valenzuela UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.0-2000theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price93.3%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRNathan Lukes UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.0-2500theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price93.3%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRKyle Higashioka UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.0-1200theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | best price93.3%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRJoc Pederson UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.0-800theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price93.3%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRAlejandro Osuna UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.0-2500theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price93.3%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRChristian Vazquez UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.0-4000theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price93.2%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRTaylor Trammell UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.0-1400theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price93.2%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRBraden Shewmake UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.0-2800theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price93.2%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRJeremy Pena UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.0-1600theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price93.2%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRBlaze Alexander UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.0-2500theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price92.8%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRTyler O'Neill UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.0-750theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | best price92.8%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRLeody Taveras UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.0-2500theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price92.8%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRCoby Mayo UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.0-800theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price92.8%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRAdley Rutschman UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.0-1000BetOnline Under 0.5 -1000 | best price92.8%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRJackson Holliday UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.0-2500theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price92.8%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRMarco Gonzales UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.0-2800theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | best price92.4%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRTaylor Ward UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.0-900BetOnline Under 0.5 -900 | best price92.2%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRVladimir Guerrero Jr. UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.1-1400theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price88.5%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRNico Hoerner UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.1-4000theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | best price88.0%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRAlex Bregman UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.1-1800BetOnline Under 0.5 -1800 | best price87.4%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRBryan Reynolds UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.1-1400BetOnline Under 0.5 -1400 | best price84.0%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRCam Smith UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.1-2000theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price83.0%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRPete Crow-Armstrong UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.1-900theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price82.3%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRKonnor Griffin UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.1-1800BetOnline Under 0.5 -1800 | best price82.1%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRMichael Busch UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.1-1200BetOnline Under 0.5 -1200 | best price81.9%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRAndres Gimenez UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.1-2500theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price81.3%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRErnie Clement UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.1-3500theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | best price81.0%!!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRIsaac Paredes UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.1-1400theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price80.5%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRDaulton Varsho UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.1-700BetOnline Under 0.5 -700 | best price80.0%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HREvan Carter UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.1-1400theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price78.5%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRDansby Swanson UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.1-2500theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price78.2%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRJosh Jung UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.1-1400theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | best price76.5%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRMarcell Ozuna UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.1-900theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price76.0%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRJesus Sanchez UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.1-1000theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price74.5%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRBrandon Nimmo UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.1-1000theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | best price74.4%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRSpencer Horwitz UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.1-1600theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | best price73.9%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRSeiya Suzuki UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.1-2000theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | best price71.8%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HREzequiel Duran UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.1-2500theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | best price71.6%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRIan Happ UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.2-1400BetOnline Under 0.5 -800 | best price65.7%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRPete Alonso UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.2-550BetOnline Under 0.5 -500 | best price60.2%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRKazuma Okamoto UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.2-900BetOnline Under 0.5 -800 | best price59.9%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRJake Burger UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.2-800theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | best price55.6%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HROneil Cruz UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.2-650BetOnline Under 0.5 -650 | best price55.4%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRGunnar Henderson UnderJAY@ORI6:36 PM0.50.2-900theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | best price54.2%!MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRBrandon Lowe UnderCUB@PIR6:41 PM0.50.3-600BetOnline Under 0.5 -600 | best price38.2%MONITOR
D◇ Monitor
Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.420/G <= 0.5 threshold
Batter HRYordan Alvarez UnderAST@RAN8:06 PM0.50.4-450theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price16.0%MONITOR

✓ PASS   ! WARN   ✗ FAIL   – N/A  |  Checks order: Baby Line · Model Edge · Books · Matchup · Role · Game Script